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Monday, April 30, 2012

Short Essay 29. The Fate of Azazi

Short Essay 29
By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde

The Fate of Azazi

The indictment of the ruling party in Nigeria, PDP, by the National Security Adviser (NSA), General Andrew O. Azazi, was the misfortune President Jonathan least expected when he woke up from his bed last Friday, 27 April 2012. The statement must be causing the him enormous pain. It jas placed him in a predicament, with the party on one hand requesting for the head of Azazi and his kinsmen on the other hand asking for his pardon. To understand the predicament of the president, we need to recast how the two once stood together as comrades in their lifelong ambition of emancipating the Niger Delta.

A Nigeria Army Intelligence Corps (NAIC) inquiry into the gunrunning activities of Sunny Okah at the Kaduna and Jaji military depots when Azazi was the GOC 1 DIV led to the sacking of the latter as Chief of Defence Staff and his premature retirement from the army in 2009. Azazi, as the Chief of Defence Staff, in collaboration with Lt. Col. LKK Are (then and now DG, SSS) and Maj. General Adekhegba (then DMI), did all he could to cover up the theft and protect its perpetrators, particularly Sunny Okah. The sacking of Azazi was definitely part of “punitive measures …. against prominent figures involved in the theft” which the NAIC report recommended. To be more specific, the report advised “government to sanction Gen Azazi appropriately.” (Full text of the NAIC report can be accessed at http://saharareporters.com/sites/default/files/uploads/Azazi.pdf. For my full commentary on the report, read http://fridaydiscourse.blogspot.com/2010/11/discourse-310-nigeria-cannot-trust.html)

If Azazi was punitively punished for his failure to stop the theft from the depots under his control, the people who the report referred to as “senior politicians in this issue” escaped because investigation into their involvement was overtaken by events. But who were these “senior politicians”, anyway?

The committee found out that Governors James Ibori and Dipriye Alamiyeseigha were purchasing weapons stolen from I DIV and handing them over to Niger Delta militants. Jonathan, which the report shied away from mentioning because he was already the vice-president by the time it was submitted, cannot escape implication since the theft and purchases continued during his tenure as the Governor of Bayelsa state. Also, when the report was submitted, we must remember, James Ibori was the most powerful adviser to late President Yar’adua. Which politician could have been more senior?

Now, we need to know why the NAIC report found it imperative to recommend the investigation of these politicians. Come with me:

“At least the names of two senior politicians… have been mentioned in this investigation. There may be many more. These two politicians are mentioned as the financiers for the arms acquisition project. Certainly, they would not have provided large sums of money without knowing the source of the weapons. Simply put, a serious breach of security of this magnitude deliberately masterminded by the state governors. This gives a serious political dimension to the case. It is therefore important that care is taken identifying all possible political linkages to this case with a view to uncovering all the politicians behind this project. Politicians can aspire to any position in Nigeria. One wonders what would happen if Nigeria ends up with a president who does not believe in the entity of the Nigerian nation, and a record of involvement in cases like this. Identifying politicians with complicity in this or similar case will help in ensuring that they are blacklisted and prevented from vying for or taking higher offices because of the implications that could arise.”

Too late.

One of the biggest misfortunes of Nigeria today is that the above warning from the NAIC was not heeded to or “Baba go slow” could not act fast enough. One of those senior politicians, Jonathan, became the acting president barely two years after the report was submitted. What he did after assuming office speaks volumes of his complicity.

Who did Jonathan pick as National Security Adviser after General Aliyu Gusau has resigned in 2010? He returned General Andrew O. Azazi! Who did Jonathan and Azazi found most befitting to run the SSS? They retirned Col. LKK Are! Where is Sunny Okah, the chief gunrunner? He is in the villa assisting the President, especially in the prosecution of his brother who mastermined the Oct. 1 bombings in Abuja. To whom has Jonathan and Azazi contracted the security of our maritme domain? Niger Delat militant Tampolo.

From the above, it could easily be discerned that the relationship between the President and his chief security adviser is long standing and strong. How then could the adviser turn around now and blame the ruling party and the President for escalating violence in the country? Let us try and understand what Azazi said. His arrow was direct in its target:

“The issue of violence did not increase in Nigeria until when there was a declaration by the current president that he was going to contest. PDP got it wrong from the beginning. The party started by saying Mr. A can rule, and Mr. B cannot rule, according to PDP conventions, rules and regulations and not according to the constitution. Is it possible that somebody was thinking only Mr. A could win, and if he did not win, he could cause a problem in the society?”

In the above statements, which I quoted from nationalmirroronline.net, there is sufficient understanding on the motives of the security chief: Zoning is the culprit. Power was expected to reside in the North for two terms. But Jonathan, coming from the south, jettisoned that rule and declared his intention to contest. This, according to Azazi, is what increased violence to its present state in Nigeria.

Again, Azazi was not expecting the Northerners that lost to Jonathan – namely, Atiku Abubakar, Generals Ibrahim Babangida and Aliyu Mohammed Gusau – to let the contravention go Scot free. They must cause "problems". Three things can be gathered from this:

One, had PDP not adopted zoning as a power-sharing principle, according to Azazi, the level of violence would not have reached this unmanageable level.

Two, had the President restrained himself from vying from contesting in 2011, the increase in violence would have been averted, still. Or had Buhari – the northern candidate – won, that too would have silenced the guns of the northerners.

Finally, “the (security) problem in the society”, according to Azazi, is caused by northerners who lost to Jonathan in the PDP, or put in another way, in reaction to Jonathan's intransigence, Atiku, IBB and Gusau, in reaction, are using Boko Haram to get at Jonathan.
Mhm. Nigerians are divided on the Azazi’s statement and person. The PDP and its supporters have made statements that portray the security chief as an ingrate, or one that bites the finger that fed him. PDP, they argue, rehabilitated him when it provided the platform on which he is currently serving as the NSA.

The opposition, this time, is raising its thumb for Azazi. He provided it with a powerful ballistic for deployment against the ruling party. And attacking they did, from all fronts. The ACN, CNPP, CPC, etc., are all over the waves enjoying their vindication.

The president must have felt embarrassed by Azazi’s statement though he tried typically to cover him initially by finding excuses in semantics. Azazi, claimed the President, might have had an idea but which he could not express clearly. He referred journalist to Azazi for clarification. That clarification, however, is not forthcoming, so far.

But honestly, could Azazi absolve himself of Jonathan's violation of the PDP zoning principle? Not at all, in my opinion. He was in the best position, as the NSA, to advise the president on the security implication of his contest, if that is what he believed then. As far as I can recall, nobody then reported that he did so. Neither did he follow his conviction and supported any northern candidate. But granted that he advised the President accordingly, why did he continue as the NSA and even travel to Washington to lure the Americans into believing that Nigeria is under a serious terrorist siege beyond its capacity to contain? Happily, the Americans did not buy the dummy. They said, “Mumu. It is not terrorism. It is poverty. Simple.”

The fate of Azazi is on the balance. The ruling PDP is turning the heat on the president to do something with the NSA. It wants him dismissed. Of course, does the president have a third option, apart from sacking him or keeping him? The choice would not be as easy as Ringim's. In this situation, the President will be torn among three things: fear, parochial strategy, and his not so much celebrated nerves.

If the President would listen to Niger Delta elders and militants whom he dreads so much, who have turned him into a hostage and who are milking the Nigerian cow dry with the support of Azazi, then he will move to protect the NSA and absolve him of any blame. Let PDP go to hell, he will say. This one has the strongest possibility.

Again, if the President would look at the strategic role of NSA Azazi in the Niger Delta Republic project or his importance to Jonathan 2015 presidency, he will be more inclined to pardon the NSA than to "Ring" him. This option has a good probability.

If, however, he has the mental capacity to understand that the statement is the gross contempt for the President and the ruling party ever uttered by a beneficiary of PDP, then his nerves, if he has any, are likely to persuade him to bid his old comrade farewell. In that case, the Boko Haram missile that hit Ringim would have returned to hit Azazi. The security chief would have nobody to blame but his tongue, which betrayed him under the intense heat of Boko Haram. This one has a weak likelihood.

So, the chances, in my assessment, are strong two against a weak one. Whichever choice the president takes, Nigeria will remain the same - corrupt and insecure.

Bauchi
30 April, 2012

43 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nigeria, nay Borno remain corrupt and insecure

Anonymous said...

Nigeria my beloved country............................ Hm

Anonymous said...

God is our saviour. He will cleanse our country of these selfish, corrupt and inhumane leaders.

Anonymous said...

Refugee in my own country hmm !!!

Anonymous said...

Well done Tilde, this is a marvelous piece especially the concluding part. May Almighty Allah save our dear country, Nigeria.

Anonymous said...

Nigeria we healthy our dear country... Good job Dr. tell it like it is. We are waiting for the option Mr. P's will take.

Babayoarah said...

Dr. Tilde, u have made a good and fantastic write up indeed. May God continue guiding u in telling the truth.

Anonymous said...

Azazi should resign.

Anonymous said...

Mr Anonymous, what goes around comes around. There is a Hausa saying: "kuturu ya ga mai qyazbi, yace tanan muka fara". Translated as: "That's how it all started", said leper when he saw a man with ring worms.

Anonymous said...

A good rejoinder

Jambil Suyudi said...

Datz a claer picture of what was actually happening in my dear and beloved country Nigeria. Allah yakawo mana mafita.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm!!! God help us, our politicians r d ppl killing us. Bck 2 sender.

Anonymous said...

I appreciate your courage to confront this issue with honest reporting. Mr president is time for you to start taking positive steps to firm leadership. The country is at the verge of drifting to civil war.its alreary too late, nigeria needs rescue and now is the time!

Anonymous said...

Dr. Our problem in this country most of our leaders do not have quality of leadership, therefore we should not expect anything good from them.

Anonymous said...

Dr Tilde I pray dis shud get to d ears of mr Presido and Azazi so dat proper action could be taken to curtail d menace. May Allah protect Nigerians where ever they are

Yakubu Gusau said...

North and south are just strange bed. fellows. Its time we start considering d option of separating thru dialogue and referrendum rather than thru war. We should be courageous enough to learn from the mistakes of countries like Sudan who fought for over 20 years and still came back to take the inevitable step after wasting so much lives and properties. We in the North are fed up with all these conspiracies and mischief!

Anonymous said...

PDP has been described as similar to the reign of the Pharoah during the times of Prophet Musa (AS) since 2003. What we are seeing now is confirmation of that ascertion. We should boycott anything associated with PDP henceforth.

Anonymous said...

Oh Allah save us from this politician&give Mr President the wisdom&courage to fex d truth know his left&right

Anonymous said...

May God save Nigeria from rascal rulers. Thanks Dr.

Anonymous said...

Oh! Nigeria can go to hell!

Hakeem Igho Info-Man Ohwojeheri said...

Very interesting piece of essay. Dr. Tilde is very much an intellectual and a remarkable person. I particularly like how concise and sequential the write up is.

The way I see Azazi's comment is a bit different from the way most of us are seeing it. I do not see it as an indictment on just PDP northern leaders as it looks on the face of it. The NSA meant it as an indictment of Northern Leaders as a whole and not just PDP northern leaders.

In simple words this is what happened:

"Jonathan National Security Adviser accused Northern leaders of arming Boko Haram. Northerners want zoning, zoning is bad, northern armed boko because Jonathan says no zoning"

This is the rephrase of Azazi's comment. Azazi spoke for Jonathan, he said what Jonathan have no guts to say. The man is a horrible person with a wicked and evil agenda.

Mohammed Mahmud said...

As the French will say "M'enfin!" What President are you guys referring to? Do we have one?

Anonymous said...

The problem lies in the hand of the President cos he larks sense of reasoning, sense of belonging, sense of responsibility and sense of direction, then which way forward for Nigeria?

Anonymous said...

Azazi and his cohorts are only playing politics with the violence.It is the innocent Nigerians that are suffering, the men in the kitchen of power are not affected or losing their lives.
It is time for him to checkout pls.

Shehu Kura said...

I think we are all missing the point. Mr. Azazi intentionally said what he said to weep sentiments from his South-South region for Mr. President. Azazi was simply telling the gathering of the South South leaders that, all this violence perpetrated by northerners is targeted towards preventing the President from re-contesting again in 2015. Consider the event and the place. This a tactical move on their part to ensure a southern block voting for Jonathan if he runs again in 2015, which he will definately do. So in as much asI appreciate Dr. Tilde's analysis, I strongly believe that Azazi is playing a dengerous game and it might succeed. So don't be fooled. They are strategizing for 2015. If Jonathan gets the block votes of the South, through rigging and other fraud, just like what happended in 2011, and they use these alledged attackes by Boko Haram against northern Christians, their calculation is that they will get the required votes from northern christian states to win him the election again. The President had a secret meeting last week with ACN leadership in Lagos in preparation of getting the Yoruba votes again. Which HE WILL. So any reasonable and responsible northerner who support ACN should start rethinking his/her support for the party. It is OPC-Afenefere with an INEC registration certificate. This is my take. Good work Dr.

Anonymous said...

The answer given to press by President Goodluck Jonathan when asked about the report credited to Gen. Azizi, who blamed the PDP of being responsible for emergence of Boko Haram insurgency, has clearly shown that the two are not on same wave length on the issue.

I think the apparent divergent views between Mr. President and his National Security Adviser on this critical issue bordering on national security, gives a clear indication that Boko Haram would continue to consume  key actors in fighting the menace. Let us not forget that IG Hafiz Ringim was retired unceremoniously due to poor handling of a key boko haram suspect, Kabiru Sokoto.

I think, Azazi may be a victim of poor handling of information

Anonymous said...

Prof.

I concur with your assessment. The 'MUMUS' have got the mantle, they are startegising.

Anonymous said...

Beyond the politics of Azazi's comments, Boko Haram is an enemy of the people of Northern Nigeria, which we should all confront. They should not be allowed to continue this provocative ruthlessness against the poor northerners. May God visit their sponsors and all their members with calamity!

M.T. Usman, Ph.D said...

I agree with the Shehu Kura's comment above. I like the assessment by Dr. Tilde but I have a little reservation about Tilde's conclusion. Gen. Azazi must have been given the clearance by GEJ to say what he said only to deceive the far North which has been at the receiving end in this political imbroglio in Nigeria. Excitement is higher among the people of the far North (where GEJ was not the favourable candidate in 2011 election) because of what looks like a division within the rank GEJ. Jonathan's camp is only trying to consolidate the plan for 2015 by raising dust to confuse their major opponents. Thank you Dr. Tilde.

Anonymous said...

AAWTW, The PDP has been described as similar to the reign of the pharoah during the times of Prophet Musa AS about ten years ago. We are now witnessing the climax of that wise statement. It is time to boycott anything associated with PDP henceforth. Bslm

Anonymous said...

I am not sure that since Azazi's outburst, anyone with a loud enough and known voice has attempted such a comprehensive interpretation of that befuddled statement. Aliyu Tilde has done so, now

Anonymous said...

I think my opinion on this is similar to shehu's, as the Dr said the NSA is tactically pushing the creation of BH to the agrived Nothern politicians,hence gaining sympathy for his brother. We need to think, nothing is as it seems.

Anonymous said...

I think my opinion on this is similar to shehu's, as the Dr said the NSA is tactically pushing the creation of BH to the agrived Nothern politicians,hence gaining sympathy for his brother. We need to think, nothing is as it seems.

Anonymous said...

Dr Tilde, we in the North don't care whatever GEJ does with hid NSA. It's none of our business. What matters most to us is how we should deal with the unprovoked attacks of the onnocent by the so-called BOko Haram. It is no longer news that the Boko Haram is a PDP project aimed atsustaining a deep crack in our ranks so that power will remain in the south. Namadi might be part of the plan in anticipation of his retaining his VPship until 2019. What these rascals fail to realise is that they can't claim God in spite of the enormous power that they yield and the huge public fund they stole. God will surely deal with them in the same manner he terminated the brutal Aabacha regime in 2008. You can't brutalise your own citizens and expect God to be pleased with you. The GEJ,s administration is counting its days in office. God does not need a tyrant leaderto transform a nation.

Anonymous said...

Salaamun'alaykum Aliyu how did you got conned into worrying/writing about
Azazi - He'll be elevated.
PDP in the South & Jonathan all believe in what Azazi said. We know
that these statements & BH itself, whose activity equally serves the
ND agenda - are distractions from their real agenda.
Only chief worry for Muslims and non-southerners now should be after
PDP (BokoHaram)  what next? Should we pray for return of the military?
(-it seems one of the most viable solutions for continuation of
Nigeria).
Else, USA/NigerDelta agenda is for complete and permanent control of
Nigerian politics (via PDP) and oil by ND - inspite of Northern
Nigerian/Muslim demographic advantages - which we aren't using &
appreciating though

Anonymous said...

A/Alkm, Malam Aliyu Allah Yasaka maka da alheri domin na karu da wannan bayanin naka.

Anonymous said...

You think Azazi's remarks were a mistake?
Everything was strategically planned:-the words, the location and the occasion were carefully chosen and only those that think otherwise will be flabbergasted when things begin to unfold!
That's my take.

Anonymous said...

May Allah SAW continue to protect us and guide our so called leaders to the right path!!!! I salute dr Aliyu!

Anonymous said...

Aliyu Tilde, I disagree with you that the Niger Delta elders and militants are the ones milking Nigeria dry. It shows a high level of insensitivity to the plight of the people of that region whose sufferings are borne out of successive years of failure of leadership- a summation of which has the northern figures occupying the majority. Aliyu, like many other northern leaders, have failed to condemn the boko haram menace. Lastly, assuming the quoted NAIC report is true, I will agree that they deserve punishments. But is that the only of such that have transpired in this nation? Or it was only concluded because it involved Southerners? From where was the boko haram amunition sourced? Is is not through the such means and piled away in wait for a time as this? And no report exist merely because the north was involved? Enough of such tilted and twisted reasonings from Dr. Tilde and his likes. Condemn boko haram and the senseless slaughter of innocent lives.Condemn the high level insecurity originating from the north before you posit GEJ as weak. Do not twist that part of it. Enough is enough!

A.B. Ibrahim said...

Yes your conclusion is good but the finishing is poor. You would have concluded that whoever wants to dig a hole (trap) for his enemy to fall into he should make it shallow as he might be the one to fall into it. Your comments clearly exposed the complicity of the Oga and his Boy which led to both of them falling into the deep hole they both dug for their (enemies?)nefarious interests. No matter what it is, Nigeria is blessed by the God Almighty whom i strongly believe is now punishing the political elites for their atrocities to the Country. We unfortunatley(ordinary citizens)are the innocent victims. It is time they paid for the blood of the innocents in God we trust, ameen.

Anonymous said...

Yeah! Enjoy the FRESH AIR.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous.No matter how we look at the Boko Haram insurgency and mindless killing of innocent souls,the people in authoprity are not affected. I advise the BH to attack the president, the national assembly and house of representatives, infact all these greedy, selfish and robber politicians so that they will experience the pains.The president instead of him to tackle the problem of power within one year in office is busy allowing his government to steal our money.He claim to have PHD but his performance is below a pry six holder. 4000 mw of electricity for a population of over 160 million and is unable to recover our stolen money from these thieves politicians. The president should resign honourably instead of him scheming for reelection in 2015 because nobody will vote for him unless he relies on rigging.

Anonymous said...

This is a very bold and courageous assessment of Andrew Owoye Azazi. Kudos to your analysis