Discourse 330 Palestine: Jonathan in the Jaws of the American Crocodile
By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
The resolve of Jonathan and his administration will soon be tested in the area of foreign policy. Nigeria’s vote will be essential for the recognition of a Palestinian State by the Security Council. If history is anything to go by, Nigeria will side with the Palestinians. However, I am beginning to sense that the possibility of the Jonathan administration to abandon our historical tradition of supporting the cause of freedom across the world is also high. This short essay is an attempt to alert Nigerians who believe in such a cause of the impending danger that their country stands the danger of becoming the tool that would scuttle the noble objective of Palestinian independence.
Jonathan would not have bothered were it not for the desire of the United States to block the Palestinian application at the Security Council when the matter is put to vote possibly later in the month. Blocking it will postpone the establishment of a Palestinian State but it will bring a lot of setback to American diplomacy in the Middle East and question its commitment to the cause of freedom. Having it both ways – preventing a Palestinian state without losing credibility – is the ultimate goal of its ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Right now, the Palestinians said they are sure of eight votes, just one less than the nine they need for their proposal to scale through at Security Council. Nigeria, a long term ally of the Palestinians, is seen as holding that essential additional vote. Working on Nigeria has therefore become essential for the Americans.
Unfortunately for the Palestinians, they are requesting this vote when their long-term ally is in its most vulnerable condition. The Nigerian state is in a terribly weak state where principles are recklessly abandoned and rule of law is the most relegated in policy matters. Under such circumstance, the President becomes a monarch who rules by discretion rather than consensus, rule of law and common good. In addition to the weakness of the state, the President is himself vulnerable, making the country a classical prey of American diplomatic pressure.
The Americans played a role in the ascent of Jonathan to the Presidency. They looked the other way when Jonathan violated the zoning principle. They approved his elections despite complaints of the malpractices that took place. Their support at each of these stages helped win other members of the international community for the President. America, as Wikileaks has revealed, has been a major source of inspiration for Jonathan. Jonathan also looks up to America for support in handling his domestic concerns like the case of Niger Delta and Boko Haram. In short Jonathan is deeply indebted to the Americans. Would they come to his doorstep asking for help, he is likely to be inclined to offer it.
Such a moment is now when America feels isolated in the face the current worldwide support for the Palestinians. A recent poll conducted by Pew Research for People and the Press indicated that 42% of Americans support the Palestinian proposal. Only a minority 26% opposes it, while 32% remain undecided. A BBC-GlobeScan poll across 19 countries suggests that “more people (49%) back UN recognition of Palestine the 21% that oppose it. According to the polls the proposal won 45% support in America, 56% in both Philippines and China, 54% in France, 53% in both Germany and UK, 90% in Egypt, 60% in Turkey, 52% in Pakistan, 51% in Indonesia, and the lowest 32% in India. In none of the 19 countries was opposition to the Palestinian bid found to be up to 30%.
Clearly, the Obama administration, like those before it, is on the wrong side of the divide. If the tenets of democracy were to be strictly followed, the Palestinians will have their way even in Israel. A poll conducted by Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey has shown that 70% of Israelis have indicated their willingness to support the creation of a Palestinian state if the UN chooses to recognize it.
With the above figures, one can clearly see why the Obama administration is desperate to quash the proposal at the voting stage, without being forced to use a veto that is definitely unpopular in the eyes of the world. Nigeria, particularly in its present weak state, is the best tool to employ.
Apart from the moral support that Jonathan would continue to enjoy from the Americans, it will be difficult to see any benefit that Nigeria will get from abandoning the Palestinians whose autonomy it approved of two decades ago. In any case, the Americans will definitely not stop buying Nigerian oil nor would they switch their support in favour of Jonathan’s opponents. On the other hand, both the Nigeria and Jonathan administration will have many things to lose. The country will damage its image as an independent nation capable of leading the continent on future diplomatic issues. Already, its premature recognition of the NTC in Libya did not go down well with other AU members, particularly with the southern African states. Failing to support the Palestinians will leave no one in doubt that Jonathan is not the befitting Nigerian President that Africa will look up to for inspiration. A similar risk obtains in relation to OPEC, which is dominated by Arabs. Etc.
If I were Jonathan I would beg the Americans not to weaken my position any further. I will also make them understand that it is in their best interest not to veto the vote because there is definitely a limit to the patience of the world and the American public to continued Israeli atrocities. This is a golden opportunity for the American government to prove that it believes that Palestinians too are worthy of the same freedom that America actively intervened to accord citizens of many other nations.
However, Nigerians cannot afford to wait for Jonathan’s chance to convince the Americans. We need to strength him in our own way. Though a Minister of State in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has given an assurance of a sort that Nigeria has decided to take a principled stand on the matter, the ambiguity in his speech has not dismissed the fear of disappointing the Palestinians at the last minute. The position the President promised American and Israeli officials when he met with them in New York last week remains a guarded secret. That is the more reason why Nigerians must not wait until a permanent damage in their foreign policy is done. A pressure from within is required to balance the external one emanating from the Americans and the Israelis.
Extensive coverage of the matter in the media will therefore be apt. But since it is a matter of federal policy, the National Assembly needs to step in and make clear what is the stand of the nation on the issue. Leaving the Presidency alone in its present state of vulnerability is very risky. Not only will our support strengthen the President, it will also provide him with an alibi for declining the American request.
Unless such protection is given to the President, he is surely going to be a small prey in the undeniably powerful jaws of the American crocodile.
Abuja
1 October 2011
Showing posts with label Goodluck Jonathan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Goodluck Jonathan. Show all posts
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Short Essay 13. The Political Economy of Jonathan's Emergence
hort Essay 13.
By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
The Economics of Jonathan's Emergence
Our predictions are gradually coming to pass. This is what we wrote few days ago regarding the emergence of Jonathan as PDP's flag bearer:
"From the look of things, the President Goodluck Jonathan is most likely to emerge as the flag bearer of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Little has changed in the politics of incumbency that has characterised that party if we examine the gubernatorial and other primaries which the party has conducted so far in many states. The presidential primaries will hardly be any different."
And it was not. Incumbency was at its best two days ago. Few of the delegates could muster the courage and vote againt the incumbent. That has been the first principle of Nigerian politics. I am happy that I am old enough to know that. Who says age does not count?
Hahaha... "I am created intimate, if I were to be returned to childhood, I would have parted with my grey hair, broken-hearted, weeping", said Al-Mutanabbi.
Eight years ago when we were in a group analyzing the chances of candidates few months before the general elections, Malam Kabiru Yusuf, the Chief Editor of Weekly Trust then, in elucidating the power of incumbency, said that some people accord incumbency 60% weight in determining the outcome of presidential elections. I noted that sentence. After the polls in 2003, INEC gave Obasanjo 60% and Buhari 39 point something percent. Then I filed Kabiru's incumbency principle and saved it on the hard disk of my brain as .exe file that I will never lose sight of whenever I weigh the candidates of presidential elections. Incumbency is a general principle. We just wish that one day it will be violated for the better, just as even nature, atimes, though rarely, violates its own principles.
It does not require any ingenuity to predict how the average Nigerian politician would behave in a primary election. From my village, I was able even to predict with an accuracy of 96% the number of votes that Obasanjo would get during the PDP primaries for 2003. The secret is simple. It is amala politics in Nigeria.
Here it is important to discern two important groups in Nigeian politics: the elite politician and the footsoldier.
The elite that form the crankshaft and pistons of Nigerian politics are dependent on goverenment. They don't have working factories or run businesses that are independent of government. The infrastructure deficit in the country is so entrenched that it has shut down the gates of profits in the face of investorss. The only surviving business is that which is patronized by government. So even for those who try to invest and appear successful, they have to abide by the political wishes of incumbent government. They must contribute hundreds of millions to its campaign. Ask Dangote and our big brother TY Danjuma for details. Do you expect any of them to do any party other than PDP? What will become of their businesses then? These juggernauts, along with the President and governors are the crankshafts and connecting rods of our politics.
The pistons are those elite who do not have any semblance of economic independence or direct power. They do not run businesses at all. Their livelihood is completely dependent on politics. They move with the movement of the crankshaft in a harmony that will ensure a smooth running of the engine. They must not differ lest the engine knocks and the vehicle stops. These are the ministers, commissioners, contractors, civil servants, party officials, etc. Each of them carries out an auxiliary function that helps the engine. They are the cuberator; the top-cylinder, the muffler, etc, accessories to the engine that enables it receive inputs and dispose of wastes.
The footsoldiers are the body and load of the vehicle, relevant only to carry the load and provide accommodation. It could be made of anything: steel, wood, leather, etc. The load could be of anything: firewood, sugarcane, refuse, money, just anything. They do not have a say as to the running of the engine or the direction it takes. They are passive. These are the grassroots members of the potilical structure of any ruling party at state or national level. They include party leaders and delegates from the nooks and crannies of the country. They are among those we saw two days ago at the PDP convention.
I have read how some members of some discussion groups on the Internet wonder on the behavior of delegates during that convention. Is there any need for wonder? The secret is this. These delegates, either as party stalwarts in states and local governments or just party members at wards are living under abject poverty. In their villages, it is not uncommon to find many people who have not possessed N100 cash for six months. Then the politicians came looking for people that will run their parties at the grassroots. This poor fellow is appointed the chairman or secretary of the party in his ward or local government. He gets some N1000 here and N5,000 there, occasionally. If he is marrying his daughter out, his superiors contribute something to him. They even give him a car and some contracts to renovate the primary school in his village. Etc. How do we expect him to vote for anyone other than the choice of these superiors - the bigger politicians at his state - when he is a delegate at Abuja, especially if he is given N100,000 cash or even $10,000!
The interest and influence of governors must be seen within this context. They have many interests to protect, many baggages to conceal. And so is any big politician you know. We must expect that only few of them can hearken to other calls, of their conscience or of other interest groups. What then is surprising? This is a universal law. Majority of people who are not economically independent cannot hold opinions. Even if they hold them, they cannot express them in public by speech, by writing or by votes.
Poverty? That is why the Prophet (peace be upon him) sought the refuge of God from poverty. "Oh God," he was reported to have prayed regularly, "I seek thy refuge from poverty." And he warned us against poverty because through it all sorts of ills, including disbelief, are imported into the society. "Poverty will not set out to enter a people", he said again, "except disbelief says: Please let's go together." Peace be upon him!
Nigerian political history, nay African political history, run along this line. Due to poverty and lack of economic independence, any party that is handed over power at independence or after a military rule uses incumbency to perpetuate itself. It continues to grow in strength by the day while the opposition shrinks by the hour. Thus, one of the wisdoms I learnt from Buhari is the observation he made in a private discussion in 2002 that in Africa republics with time tend to move inevitably towards a one party state.
The same path was taken by both first and second republics in Nigeria. The only option left was for the military to takeover power with the intention of correcting the wrongs which the politicians found difficult muster the courage to handle equitably. The unfortunate thing is that as soon as the mitltiary settles in power they begin to steal such that the only option they have is to handover to corrupt politicians who will cover their track. This is the vicious cycle of our politics. So we are returned to the same politicians and their methods again.
Murtala was killed precisely because he wanted to break this trend. The trio - Obasanjo, Danjuma and Shehu Yar'adua, who tookover from Murtala quickly derailed and went for public coffers. They devoured it and became the first multiple-billionaire generals. They have been piloting Nigerian politics since then. And so was Buhari who was ousted in 1984.
So no one should wonder or rejoice at the emergence of Jonathan. I never, even for a second, doubted his emergence as the winner of PDP primaries, hence my cheap prediction last week which did not need any ingenuity.
Incumbency is behind the emergence of Jonathan. Simple. If Atiku were in power, even Solomon Lar, Jerry "Ghana" and Clarke would have voted for him in the primaries. The governors too would have compelled their delegates to vote for him. Jonathan himself would not have attempted contesting the primaries but would have lined his delegates, as a governor, behind Atiku. There was nothing in the PDP charade that was based on principle, religion or even ethnicity. It is economics, pure and simple.
We now have the three candidates we predicted - Jonathan, Buhari and Ribadu. Let us move forward. The target before all progressive Nigerians is to find who among the three has the courage and support of Nigerians to break that circle without giving chance to the military again. I have heard many Nigerians wishfully say that a coup is not possible. So we said and thought in 1983...until it suddenly happened.
You may share your thoughts on this article with other readers across the globe by posting your comments at http://fridaydiscourse.blogspot.com/2011/01/short-essay-13-political-economy-of.html
Lagos,
15 January 2011
By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
The Economics of Jonathan's Emergence
Our predictions are gradually coming to pass. This is what we wrote few days ago regarding the emergence of Jonathan as PDP's flag bearer:
"From the look of things, the President Goodluck Jonathan is most likely to emerge as the flag bearer of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Little has changed in the politics of incumbency that has characterised that party if we examine the gubernatorial and other primaries which the party has conducted so far in many states. The presidential primaries will hardly be any different."
And it was not. Incumbency was at its best two days ago. Few of the delegates could muster the courage and vote againt the incumbent. That has been the first principle of Nigerian politics. I am happy that I am old enough to know that. Who says age does not count?
Hahaha... "I am created intimate, if I were to be returned to childhood, I would have parted with my grey hair, broken-hearted, weeping", said Al-Mutanabbi.
Eight years ago when we were in a group analyzing the chances of candidates few months before the general elections, Malam Kabiru Yusuf, the Chief Editor of Weekly Trust then, in elucidating the power of incumbency, said that some people accord incumbency 60% weight in determining the outcome of presidential elections. I noted that sentence. After the polls in 2003, INEC gave Obasanjo 60% and Buhari 39 point something percent. Then I filed Kabiru's incumbency principle and saved it on the hard disk of my brain as .exe file that I will never lose sight of whenever I weigh the candidates of presidential elections. Incumbency is a general principle. We just wish that one day it will be violated for the better, just as even nature, atimes, though rarely, violates its own principles.
It does not require any ingenuity to predict how the average Nigerian politician would behave in a primary election. From my village, I was able even to predict with an accuracy of 96% the number of votes that Obasanjo would get during the PDP primaries for 2003. The secret is simple. It is amala politics in Nigeria.
Here it is important to discern two important groups in Nigeian politics: the elite politician and the footsoldier.
The elite that form the crankshaft and pistons of Nigerian politics are dependent on goverenment. They don't have working factories or run businesses that are independent of government. The infrastructure deficit in the country is so entrenched that it has shut down the gates of profits in the face of investorss. The only surviving business is that which is patronized by government. So even for those who try to invest and appear successful, they have to abide by the political wishes of incumbent government. They must contribute hundreds of millions to its campaign. Ask Dangote and our big brother TY Danjuma for details. Do you expect any of them to do any party other than PDP? What will become of their businesses then? These juggernauts, along with the President and governors are the crankshafts and connecting rods of our politics.
The pistons are those elite who do not have any semblance of economic independence or direct power. They do not run businesses at all. Their livelihood is completely dependent on politics. They move with the movement of the crankshaft in a harmony that will ensure a smooth running of the engine. They must not differ lest the engine knocks and the vehicle stops. These are the ministers, commissioners, contractors, civil servants, party officials, etc. Each of them carries out an auxiliary function that helps the engine. They are the cuberator; the top-cylinder, the muffler, etc, accessories to the engine that enables it receive inputs and dispose of wastes.
The footsoldiers are the body and load of the vehicle, relevant only to carry the load and provide accommodation. It could be made of anything: steel, wood, leather, etc. The load could be of anything: firewood, sugarcane, refuse, money, just anything. They do not have a say as to the running of the engine or the direction it takes. They are passive. These are the grassroots members of the potilical structure of any ruling party at state or national level. They include party leaders and delegates from the nooks and crannies of the country. They are among those we saw two days ago at the PDP convention.
I have read how some members of some discussion groups on the Internet wonder on the behavior of delegates during that convention. Is there any need for wonder? The secret is this. These delegates, either as party stalwarts in states and local governments or just party members at wards are living under abject poverty. In their villages, it is not uncommon to find many people who have not possessed N100 cash for six months. Then the politicians came looking for people that will run their parties at the grassroots. This poor fellow is appointed the chairman or secretary of the party in his ward or local government. He gets some N1000 here and N5,000 there, occasionally. If he is marrying his daughter out, his superiors contribute something to him. They even give him a car and some contracts to renovate the primary school in his village. Etc. How do we expect him to vote for anyone other than the choice of these superiors - the bigger politicians at his state - when he is a delegate at Abuja, especially if he is given N100,000 cash or even $10,000!
The interest and influence of governors must be seen within this context. They have many interests to protect, many baggages to conceal. And so is any big politician you know. We must expect that only few of them can hearken to other calls, of their conscience or of other interest groups. What then is surprising? This is a universal law. Majority of people who are not economically independent cannot hold opinions. Even if they hold them, they cannot express them in public by speech, by writing or by votes.
Poverty? That is why the Prophet (peace be upon him) sought the refuge of God from poverty. "Oh God," he was reported to have prayed regularly, "I seek thy refuge from poverty." And he warned us against poverty because through it all sorts of ills, including disbelief, are imported into the society. "Poverty will not set out to enter a people", he said again, "except disbelief says: Please let's go together." Peace be upon him!
Nigerian political history, nay African political history, run along this line. Due to poverty and lack of economic independence, any party that is handed over power at independence or after a military rule uses incumbency to perpetuate itself. It continues to grow in strength by the day while the opposition shrinks by the hour. Thus, one of the wisdoms I learnt from Buhari is the observation he made in a private discussion in 2002 that in Africa republics with time tend to move inevitably towards a one party state.
The same path was taken by both first and second republics in Nigeria. The only option left was for the military to takeover power with the intention of correcting the wrongs which the politicians found difficult muster the courage to handle equitably. The unfortunate thing is that as soon as the mitltiary settles in power they begin to steal such that the only option they have is to handover to corrupt politicians who will cover their track. This is the vicious cycle of our politics. So we are returned to the same politicians and their methods again.
Murtala was killed precisely because he wanted to break this trend. The trio - Obasanjo, Danjuma and Shehu Yar'adua, who tookover from Murtala quickly derailed and went for public coffers. They devoured it and became the first multiple-billionaire generals. They have been piloting Nigerian politics since then. And so was Buhari who was ousted in 1984.
So no one should wonder or rejoice at the emergence of Jonathan. I never, even for a second, doubted his emergence as the winner of PDP primaries, hence my cheap prediction last week which did not need any ingenuity.
Incumbency is behind the emergence of Jonathan. Simple. If Atiku were in power, even Solomon Lar, Jerry "Ghana" and Clarke would have voted for him in the primaries. The governors too would have compelled their delegates to vote for him. Jonathan himself would not have attempted contesting the primaries but would have lined his delegates, as a governor, behind Atiku. There was nothing in the PDP charade that was based on principle, religion or even ethnicity. It is economics, pure and simple.
We now have the three candidates we predicted - Jonathan, Buhari and Ribadu. Let us move forward. The target before all progressive Nigerians is to find who among the three has the courage and support of Nigerians to break that circle without giving chance to the military again. I have heard many Nigerians wishfully say that a coup is not possible. So we said and thought in 1983...until it suddenly happened.
You may share your thoughts on this article with other readers across the globe by posting your comments at http://fridaydiscourse.blogspot.com/2011/01/short-essay-13-political-economy-of.html
Lagos,
15 January 2011
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Discourse 310 Nigeria Cannot Trust Jonathan
Discourse 310
By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
Nigeria Cannot Trust Jonathan
Last week, Saharareporters published on its website an article titled Secret Army Report Implicates NSA Azazi, Ibori, Alamieyeseigha, Henry and Sunny Okah In Sale Of Military Weapons To Niger Delta Militants. Also, courtesy of Saharareporters, the full report Niegrian Army Intelligence Corp (NAIC) can be obtained at http://www.saharareporters.com/sites/default/files/uploads/Azazi.pdf. The title of the NAIC report which was addressed to Chief of Army Staff (COAS) was Investigation Report into the Theft and Sale of Arms to Niger Delta Gunrunner by an Officer and Some Soldiers of the 1 Base Ordinance Depot Kaduna.
For me the full report is a turning point. After reading it thrice, I am left with no choice but to ask this embarrassing question: Can we, Nigerians, afford to trust Jonathan with the presidency in 2011 in the light of his association with the people involved in the arms theft, with those who covered them up and, of course, his commitment to the militant cause of Niger Delta which is increasingly becoming apparent in his decisions and utterances since he became President? The question is embarrassing because Jonathan is already our President. And there could not be a situation more embarrassing than citizens seeing their President as a security risk.
Briefly, the NAIC report contains details of how close to 7000 assorted weapons were stolen between 2000 and 2007 from the ordinance depots in Kaduna and Jaji. The theft was masterminded by one Maj SA Akubo, who sold them to Niger Delta militants through Sunday Okar, the junior brother of Henry Okar, the MEND leader. It started with the discovery of the Jaji incident in February 2007, which renewed another inquiry into the theft that has been taking place in Kaduna when Gen Azazi (rtd) was the GOC of 1 DIV. Investigations revealed that the two incidents were related. Maj Akubo, Sgt Mathias, LCpl Alexander, LCpl Moses and LCpl Nnamdi were the principal culprits in the incidents. The Kaduna theft was investigated and suppressed by SSS when Lt. LKK Are was its DG in collaboration with Azazi and one Maj Gen Adekhegba, then Director of Military Intelligence (DMI). Azazi continued to cover up the case, first in his capacity as GOC 1DIV, then later as COAS. It took the discovery of the Jaji theft in 2007 and the tenure of another DG of SSS to mount a conclusive investigation. None of the recommendations of the NAIC report were taken seriously except the court-martialling and jailing of Maj Akubo and the soldiers involved. Sunday Okar was freed and presently aiding Jonathan in the case of the October 1 Abuja Bombings against his brother Henry.
Two former governors, James Ibori of Delta State and Dipriye Alamieyeseigha of Bayelsa, purchased the weapons for the militants when they were serving governors. They were never questioned or sanctioned and no further investigation into the culpability of other politicians was conducted as recommended by the NAIC report in order to nib in the bud the possibility of someone among such politicians becoming a President of Nigeria one day. NAIC also recommended, among other things, that investigations be carried out to ascertain the conspiracy theory that the thefts were part of the Niger Delta plan to secede from Nigeria.
To my knowledge, the Nigerian Army has not come out yet to refute the authenticity of the report. As a citizen of a democratic society, I think I am free to express my opinion about it.
This is a report that Nigerians must not let go. With Jonathan on the wheels of the nation, it is my opinion that its contents has great significance to our national security. This is also the opinion of NAIC: “It has been suggested that this issue should be handled in a secretive manner in order to avoid bad publicity to the NA and the government due to the embarrassment of the extent of the theft. It is our opinion however that this is a wrong advice. In as much as this issue deserves to be carefully handled, we do not have the luxury to keep it under cover.” Leaking the report could be in reaction to the appointment of General Azazi as the National Security Adviser (NSA) with the intention of alerting the nation to its dangerous implication.
The most relevant part of the NAIC report to this discussion is this: “One wonders what would happen if Nigeria ends up with a president who does not believe in the entity of the Nigerian nation, and has a record of involvement in cases like this.”
We now have a president - Jonathan - who was the deputy to one of the culprits, Alamieyeseigha. One cannot imagine that Jonathan as the deputy governor could not know anything about the arms deals which his boss was financing. Emancipation of the Niger Delta is a regional cause and there could be no way that a deputy governor then would not know how it was financed or how its weapons were procured. Impossible.
Not only that, Jonathan became the governor when the flow of weapons from Kaduna and Jaji into the hands of Niger Delta militants was still taking place. His name could not have been mentioned in the report because it was compiled in September 2007 when he was already the Vice President! It was not surprising that investigation into the “many more” politicians involved in the case was not attempted at all.
More importantly, however, is the association of Jonathan with the people implicated in the report after he became President. Jonathan cannot claim ignorance of the report. Yet, as Saharareporters noted, “Alamieyeseigha…is championing the President Goodluck Janathan’s presidential election bid… Sunny Okah has since been recruited by the Jonathan administration and is being used to press the case against his brothers.” The most revealing, however, is the appointment of General Azazi (rtd) by Jonathan as the new NSA despite his multiple roles in the case that are explicitly mentioned in the report. For this, we need to indulge ourselves in some details about his role.
First, “the period of the arms theft that Maj Akubo masterminded at 1BODK fall within the period of Gen Azazi’s tour of duty as GOC 1 DIV”, said the NAIC report. This alone is bad enough. He instituted two shoddy investigations into the theft to cover up his failures.
Secondly, he was the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) when the DSS (or SSS as we popularly know it) investigated the 1BODK theft later. He directed, the Director of Military Intelligence (DMI), Major General Adekhegba to “facilitate the release of the officers to the DSS, find out why they were looking for them and also respond on his behalf.” Adekhegba who was ostensibly working under unwritten directives of Azazi “approved the release of Maj Akubo with an incomplete investigation of a case that has probable negative implications on military security without clearing from the COAS,” said the NAIC report.
Thirdly, according to the NAIC report, the DSS completed its investigations of the Kaduna thefts before the Jaji one was discovered without intimating the “NA or NAIC of their findings. Neither did the NA nor NAIC request for any feedback.” Also, “there is nothing on record to indicate that the DSS obliged or even responded to the requests” of NAIC to have “military intelligence officers be part of the investigations”. DSS kept mute on its findings. NAIC report posed some questions here: “Is there likelihood that this case was shabbily handled in order that General Azazi command failures may remain undiscovered? Did Azazi use course mate influence on the then DG of DSS Lt. Col. LKK Are (rtd) to ensure the case remain suppressed? Otherwise, why did it take until now, when Are is no more in office for the DSS to reopen the case and be willing to cooperate fully with the NA?”
Fourthly, still on Gen Azazi, the army intelligence report had this to say: “Gen Azazi obviously has more questions to answer regarding his roles in this case considering the key appointment he held during the period of the theft. Gen Azazi has already nominated Maj Gen RO Adekhegba for national merit award, probably as a reward for his role in ensuring that his complicity in this issue remains undiscovered.” It did not therefore come as a surprise that the NAIC report noted that “after becoming the CDS, it is reported that Gen Azazi’s nominee for the position of CDI is Maj Gen Adekhegba.”
What late President Yar’adua did as a result of this report was to fire Azazi in 2008 when he was the Chief of Defence Staff, a source told Saharareporters. I remember that was the time when there were widespread reports that Niger Delta militants have infiltrated the top hierarchy of the Nigerian military and the Federal Government was just threatening to intensify its assault on them.
The recent appointment of Azazi as the NSA by Jonathan justifiably raises doubts regarding the latter's commitment to the security of this country. Naturally, the appointment could only be possible if Jonathan was impressed with his record. And to be so impressed with what we have listed above requires a mind that shares the same cause with Azazi, not only in the past but also in the future. Here lies our concern as a nation. How could a President, who is promising Nigerians a new future if elected in 2011 appoint as head of the entire national security apparatus a person who was an accomplice in serious security breaches when he was a GOC, COAS and CDF? How can he return a person fired as CDF and forcefully retired from the army for reasons well known to the President? For a possible answer to these questions, the NAIC report gives us some important clues.
The report suggested a “conspiracy theory” which it recommended to be investigated. The report believes that "there is a link between the 1989 aborted Orkar coup; the 2001 Ikeja Cantonment arms depot explosions; the arms theft at 1BODK and the militancy in the Niger Delta. It is believed that there is an orchestrated plan by the Niger Deltans to secede from Nigeria which is being played out over the years with every opportunity they have. It is also believed that they took maximum advantage of the unique opportunity they had with successive appointments of Gens Ogomudia, Asemota and Azazi as GOCs I DIV.”
This secession theory is not the speculation of a columnist or Saharareporters. It is a theory coming from Nigerian Army Intelligence Corps and it must be given due recognition. If indeed they intend to secede as entailed by their threats, militancy and weapons accumulation, then they can do so easily in the near future, for their plan is rolling so nicely without any obstacle. They now have the Federal Government headed by a President of their own. He is doing everything to cover them up and strengthen them. He has now appointed another of their own, who collaborated with them so much before in stealing arms from Nigerian military depots, to head the institution that oversees the Army, Navy, Air Force, SSS, Police, etc. He now advises the President on anything regarding these bodies. And, of course, by his antecedents, he cannot advise him against the interest of his own people. He has also appointed another Niger Deltan, Ita Ekpeyong, as DG of SSS. And Nigerians are simply watching!
Equally alarming is the plan to recruit the militants as national coast guards. Few days ago, on 2 November, 2010, Daily Trust reported that the Vice President inaugurated a committee on the integration of the militants as guards in an inter-ministerial/interagency meeting on human capital development master plan for amnesty programme. “Incessant insecurity at our coasts”, the VP noted, “is as a result of inadequate coast guards who may give information and perfectly protect the coasts… Sustainable security in the Niger Delta can only be achieved if there is enough surveillance by the security agencies.” Are the criminals in the Niger Delta the most qualified to secure our coasts? Why won't the government also recruit Odua Peoples Congress in Lagos and Boko Haram in Borno to achieve "sustainable security" on our borders in the southwest and northeast respectively? In fact, aren't there enough law abiding, able-bodied and patriotic youths in the Niger Delta to employ as coast guards? Why resort to vandals, thieves, kidnappers, insurgents and terrorists?
So these militants will be officially recruited, trained and armed by the very government they have been fighting against for over fifteen years. And the President is doing so very fast such that the militants would be employed, trained and armed before he leaves office next April, just in case he fails in the next elections. Thus, the committee is just given ten days to submit its report on the modalities of the integration, implying that the matter is already fait accompli.
Imagine how much security damage Jonathan can inflict on this country if this trend continues until 2015. Niger Delta would have completed all arrangements for a secession: increased oil revenues that could be used to buy weapons; complete undermining of the military through posting agent officers as commanders especially along the coastal area and possible relocation of military hardware to the region; and well trained guards to oversee the illegal activities required to achieve this goal with the aid of Nigerian state machinery which they did not enjoy hitherto. Then, the conspiracy theory of the army intelligence corps would not need to be investigated into and ascertained. It would be a reality, just as would become of the prophesy of the disintegration of the nation by 2015 that is widespread in diplomatic circles.
We have finally stumbled on why Jonathan is desperate to continue beyond 2011. He has not convinced us on any manifesto. He has not achieved anything so far to impress us. His only argument is he is anti-zoning. To achieve his ambition, he has resorted to using primordial sentiments of religion, regionalism and whatever the PDP crooking machine has perfected. And the nation is buying it, hook, line and sinker. It is really a pity.
Nigerians cannot trust Jonathan. They can only do so at their own peril. I am not keen about the origins of a good President whom all of us can trust. But I am baffled at how the entire southern part of the country has shied away from fielding other aspirants in addition of Jonathan or in his stead. The South is undoubtedly blessed with hundreds of such competent people. Everything is left on the shoulders of the traditionally maligned North, a situation which Jonathan, his co-militants and their sponsors are cashing on to orchestrate a victory in 2011.
That is how calamity creeps into a nation, as it did in Germany. It is aided most by the conspiratorial silence of the majority who sees it as a distant speculation. That majority preoccupies itself with daily stereotyping of some groups. In Germany it was the Jews. It fails to listen to the voices of wisdom; in fact, it penalizes them. Until it is too late, at the cost of unimaginable number of lives and the suffering of millions, the nation fails to heed to the warnings coming from such discernible minds. We once had that fateful experience too. The Nigerian civil war: A million killed; three million deliberately starved; millions others injured; many more rendered homeless; and an entire region had to start life again from the scratch. The nation was watching sheepishly as the events were unfolding, starting with the belief in the propaganda that led to the January 1965 coup and subsequent events. Is not that enough a deterrent for Nigerians to stop the Niger Delta secession plan with the benefit of hindsight? How can we afford to be so blind?
For me, the beginning of wisdom is to start questioning every step of Jonathan. For example, why are the suspects of the Abuja Bombing tried secretly despite protests from the civil society? What are Jonathan and Azazi afraid of? Are they afraid that the suspects might tell the public all the dirty secrets of their past and present sponsors? There are also complaints from all regions about the lopsidedness of recent postings in the military. More such postings are coming within the next two weeks. Such things must be challenged nationwide, including the appointment of Azazi and many of his boys. Then the recruitment of terrorists as coast guards must be resisted. Their previous actions disqualify them ab initio from becoming employed in the defence establishment. Besides, MEND is still active. Even this morning, another bomb blast was reported.
Next is that instead of contemplating a post-2011 Jonathan, I would rather implore competent Nigerians from every corner of the nation and in any party they may be to please come forward and contest for the Presidency. Let us dump Jonathan because so far he has proved that there is enough in him to scare us. In my estimation, he has become a security risk.
The National Assembly and the National Council of State must come on board. Their members must open their eyes to this plan. They must stop being rubberstamps of the Presidency on issues regarding the Niger Delta. We wre not helping our brothers in that region by according them the luxury of preferential treatment. A spoilt child always courts disaster for its family.
However, my loudest call goes to the intellectuals and elders of Niger Delta. Politicians on many occasions are no better than thugs in their thought and could be more brutal in their conscience. For some time now politicians in the region have been under the mercy of its thugs. The nation has toed their line too by adopting appeasement as a solution to their criminal actions. But there does not seem to be an end to their demand until they engulf us in another tragedy. We need to hear voices of reason from that region while we do the little we can which is often received with hesitation. There could be consequences for going against the tide but their sour taste would pale before the avoidable sufferings of a nation.
Finally, as I depart for Hajj, I am closing this article with the now familiar warning in the NAIC report: “One wonders what would happen if Nigeria ends up with a president who does not believe in the entity of the Nigerian nation, and has a record of involvement in cases like this." If...if... That was a possibility. Now it is a warning.
Culled from http://fridaydiscourse.blogspot.com
Abuja, 4 November 2010
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
Monday, November 8, 2010
Disclaimer on GE Jonathan's Hero
I am not "Aliyu Tilde", Goodluck Jonathan's Facebook Hero
By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
A friend of mine in Lagos, Yakubu Garba Tilde, sent me this text message on Sunday evening, 7 November, 2010:"Assalamu alaikum. Just read the article "Nigerian Youth Becomes Facebook Hero" in today's Sunday Trust. Your straight forwardness and sincerity on content and source is commended. Yakubu Tilde."
Naturally, I became curious, knowing that I have not posted anything on Facebook for the past one month and the discourse I just wrote, Discourse 310 which is not posted yet, is one of the greatest indictments ever written on a sitting Nigerian President. I bought a copy of the Sunday Trust and read the story on page 49.
The story was culled from Sierra Express. It is about a Nigerian youth, Aliyu Tilde, who lifted a material from Reno Emokri 's Breaking the Generational Curse and pasted it on the wall of President Goodluck. Goodluck picked that quotation and used it in his Facebook to describe himself: "I like what a youth, Aliyu Tilde, said on my wall and with his permission I have reproduced his words. Said he: "There are only two types of people In Nigeria - good and bad - and not - northerners and southerners - we are all one in the final analysis." The story said "nine hours after his response the topic became one of the most discussed subject on the website. It gennerated 2,517 comments and 3,076 likes as at 5th November at 12.15am. David Ekweoba believed to be a Nigerian even goes further in his post by suggesting that 'I recommend Aliyu Tilde to be made EFCC chairman." In a chat with Sierra Express on facebook, Tilde confessed to lifting the quote and Goodluck too "later acknowledged the original author of the piece."
It became clear to me that there is mix up or someone is using my name to promote the campaign of Goodluck Jonathan, reaping heavy sums while I continue to yawn under the shade of a tree. So later in the night when the data signals of MTN returned I opened my facebook, which I have not done for a while, to check whether there was anything to that effect. Nothing. See me see trouble. I quickly wrote this short disclaimer there, saying, "I just read in Daily Trust that a Nigerian youth called Aliyu Tilde has become a facebook hero when he wrote on GE Jonathan's wall that "there are only two Nigerians, good and bad..." Please note that I am not that hero. One, I am not a youth. I'm 50. Two, Goodluck, with his recent developments, is not my favourite. Three, I haven't posted anything on facebook for a month or so now. I congratulate that 'Aliyu Tilde'."
As I slept the night "in sublime unconcern for the words which wander abroad", to borrow from the bakandamiya of al-Mutanabbi, my friends started commenting on my thread. They all expressed a sigh of relief. I woke up to read their comments. I was really surprised at how Nigerians are now using the facebook so instantly. The need to write this disclaimer occurred to me immediately such that the information will not just reach my facebook friends but also readers of my weekly discourses on various sites on the Internet. The following clarification is therefore important.
Unless someone comes up with all the necessary credentials (photograph, certificates, address, history, etc) to prove that he is Aliyu Tilde the hero, I strongly put forward the accusation that the Jonathan campaign group or some sympathizers of the President have resorted to impersonation in order to boost his popularity. Here is my evidence.
I was once alerted by one of my readers in the UK, Bello Salihu, that a Facebook page was opened in my name using the exclusive email address (aliyu.tilde@yahoo.com) I created when the usual one (aliyutilde@yahoo.com) became always stacked with spam. The difference between the two is just a dot after my first name, aliyu. I used the new one to post my discourses to readers for about three times or so before I discovered a way of blocking the spams and reverted to using the usual one. It was from there that the email address aliyu.tilde@yahoo.com was cloned by someone to open a facbebook page, in addition to the one I opened using my normal email addresss earlier but which I have not used much.
The problem arose from the fact that Facebook, technically, does not pay attention to ownership of names. So anybody can open a facebook in the name of another person, as fans commonly do for their celebrities, unlike email domains which will block you by saying that the name is not available, meaning someone is using it already. Facebook would however allow you to use any password at subscription, not necessarily the password of the original email address. I know another Aliyu Tilde Facebook that was opened by a true fan on mine and he duly informed me, making three facebooks now bearing that name: the original one by me, another by my fan, and the third, possibly, by a pro-Jonathan person. Bello alerted me then on the fake page because it contained hate comments about IBB and claimed I was living "in Washington" and "interested in women" (I wonder which normal man is not!) He said he knows it was not me; that is why he is advising me to do something about it. I did.
I went to the fake Facebook page bearing Aliyu Tilde and, behold, there was a large picture of IBB on which was written "Evil Genius". I tried to delete the picture, but I could not because I did not know how to use facebook very well. Ah ah.(As my readers know, I have for long held differences with IBB regarding governance but I do not hate him personally) I asked my facebook friends for advice. They gave me some. I was able to change the wordings of the mission statement that appeared below the picture. Later, I realized that I could change the password of the facebook, being the owner of the email. I changed it and got an exclussive access to the account of the page. The reader may go to www.facebook/aliyu.tilde.com and ascertain this history from the content of the book since it's inception.
Unfortunately for me many people have subscribed to the fake facebook which I now own properly. So even as I closed it temporarily, I reopened it knowing that it is now safe and I can continue to add more friends rather than reverting to the original one I opened long before which I never used actually. That is why the comment which Jonathan quoted is not there on it. The imposter might have opened another Aliyu Tilde facebook after realizing that he could no longer use the first one he created. My cyber guru friends should please help me sort this mess out. Or was it from that young fan of mine, or the bad guy has cloned my email again? I can't tell because I could not access the page from where Jonathan got his quotation.
I have been advised to paste my picture on the facebook or add Dr. before my name or PhD after it. I don't like parading titles unnecessarily. I hate pictures too. I thought writing my name in full name - Aliyu U. Tilde - as I started doing in my articles since Bello alerted me on the fake Facebook was enough. Now, with this development, I have to paste my picture, boroboro, plainly.
This matter raises a lot of questions about safety on the cyberspace. Three weeks ago when I wrote Poor Northerners! I mentioned how someone in 2005 invented an email address in my name and that of Mohammed Haruna by altering our existing email addresses and used it to post hate mails and articles regarding southerners on the Internet. Clearly he was an Obasanjo man. Dat one don pass. Now anoda wahala don come from a Jonathan man. We need to tighten our security on the Internet, it seems.
I sincerely doubt that there could be another Aliyu Tilde. Well, I may be wrong, but I doubt very much. All the Tildes that I know so far in public domain are from my village. I alone bear the first name Aliyu. There are two other Aliyu Tildes, both my former teachers in the primary school: one bearing Aliyu Saad Tilde, my uncle and headmaster, now a retiree; and the other, Aliyu Tukur Tilde, our present village head and my in law. There could be some among the Fulani in Guinea from where our ancestors came and where there are villages bearing Tilde. But there the name is written 'aliou', being a French speaking country. The one that wrote that 'heroic' quotation, however, was Nigerian, not French.
Ladies and Gentlemen, the Jonathan campaign has clarifications to make. I welcome the idea of being the EFCC boss after the tenure of my sister Farida. Ha. Mahaukaci ya hau kura. The first people I would send straight to jail would be the First lady and her husband, for as al-Mutanabbi once said, "whoever makes a lion a falcon for his hunting, that lion will hunt him among the things he hunts."
Let the fake Aliyu Tilde know that all day is for the thief, one day for the owner. If I court any presidential wrath and I am declared wanted by the Nigerian authorities, which I believe would come soon, the SSS may not know which Aliyu Tilde to catch. They may grap him. That day he will swear and confess to his impersonation. I will then swear that I am not the Aliyu Tilde they are looking for: Na him. Mumu. E no sabi campaign better sef. E de chop money while e leave me suffer for village. Carry am go, jare!
Bauchi,
8 November 2010
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
blog: http://fridaydiscourse.blogspot.comk
By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
A friend of mine in Lagos, Yakubu Garba Tilde, sent me this text message on Sunday evening, 7 November, 2010:"Assalamu alaikum. Just read the article "Nigerian Youth Becomes Facebook Hero" in today's Sunday Trust. Your straight forwardness and sincerity on content and source is commended. Yakubu Tilde."
Naturally, I became curious, knowing that I have not posted anything on Facebook for the past one month and the discourse I just wrote, Discourse 310 which is not posted yet, is one of the greatest indictments ever written on a sitting Nigerian President. I bought a copy of the Sunday Trust and read the story on page 49.
The story was culled from Sierra Express. It is about a Nigerian youth, Aliyu Tilde, who lifted a material from Reno Emokri 's Breaking the Generational Curse and pasted it on the wall of President Goodluck. Goodluck picked that quotation and used it in his Facebook to describe himself: "I like what a youth, Aliyu Tilde, said on my wall and with his permission I have reproduced his words. Said he: "There are only two types of people In Nigeria - good and bad - and not - northerners and southerners - we are all one in the final analysis." The story said "nine hours after his response the topic became one of the most discussed subject on the website. It gennerated 2,517 comments and 3,076 likes as at 5th November at 12.15am. David Ekweoba believed to be a Nigerian even goes further in his post by suggesting that 'I recommend Aliyu Tilde to be made EFCC chairman." In a chat with Sierra Express on facebook, Tilde confessed to lifting the quote and Goodluck too "later acknowledged the original author of the piece."
It became clear to me that there is mix up or someone is using my name to promote the campaign of Goodluck Jonathan, reaping heavy sums while I continue to yawn under the shade of a tree. So later in the night when the data signals of MTN returned I opened my facebook, which I have not done for a while, to check whether there was anything to that effect. Nothing. See me see trouble. I quickly wrote this short disclaimer there, saying, "I just read in Daily Trust that a Nigerian youth called Aliyu Tilde has become a facebook hero when he wrote on GE Jonathan's wall that "there are only two Nigerians, good and bad..." Please note that I am not that hero. One, I am not a youth. I'm 50. Two, Goodluck, with his recent developments, is not my favourite. Three, I haven't posted anything on facebook for a month or so now. I congratulate that 'Aliyu Tilde'."
As I slept the night "in sublime unconcern for the words which wander abroad", to borrow from the bakandamiya of al-Mutanabbi, my friends started commenting on my thread. They all expressed a sigh of relief. I woke up to read their comments. I was really surprised at how Nigerians are now using the facebook so instantly. The need to write this disclaimer occurred to me immediately such that the information will not just reach my facebook friends but also readers of my weekly discourses on various sites on the Internet. The following clarification is therefore important.
Unless someone comes up with all the necessary credentials (photograph, certificates, address, history, etc) to prove that he is Aliyu Tilde the hero, I strongly put forward the accusation that the Jonathan campaign group or some sympathizers of the President have resorted to impersonation in order to boost his popularity. Here is my evidence.
I was once alerted by one of my readers in the UK, Bello Salihu, that a Facebook page was opened in my name using the exclusive email address (aliyu.tilde@yahoo.com) I created when the usual one (aliyutilde@yahoo.com) became always stacked with spam. The difference between the two is just a dot after my first name, aliyu. I used the new one to post my discourses to readers for about three times or so before I discovered a way of blocking the spams and reverted to using the usual one. It was from there that the email address aliyu.tilde@yahoo.com was cloned by someone to open a facbebook page, in addition to the one I opened using my normal email addresss earlier but which I have not used much.
The problem arose from the fact that Facebook, technically, does not pay attention to ownership of names. So anybody can open a facebook in the name of another person, as fans commonly do for their celebrities, unlike email domains which will block you by saying that the name is not available, meaning someone is using it already. Facebook would however allow you to use any password at subscription, not necessarily the password of the original email address. I know another Aliyu Tilde Facebook that was opened by a true fan on mine and he duly informed me, making three facebooks now bearing that name: the original one by me, another by my fan, and the third, possibly, by a pro-Jonathan person. Bello alerted me then on the fake page because it contained hate comments about IBB and claimed I was living "in Washington" and "interested in women" (I wonder which normal man is not!) He said he knows it was not me; that is why he is advising me to do something about it. I did.
I went to the fake Facebook page bearing Aliyu Tilde and, behold, there was a large picture of IBB on which was written "Evil Genius". I tried to delete the picture, but I could not because I did not know how to use facebook very well. Ah ah.(As my readers know, I have for long held differences with IBB regarding governance but I do not hate him personally) I asked my facebook friends for advice. They gave me some. I was able to change the wordings of the mission statement that appeared below the picture. Later, I realized that I could change the password of the facebook, being the owner of the email. I changed it and got an exclussive access to the account of the page. The reader may go to www.facebook/aliyu.tilde.com and ascertain this history from the content of the book since it's inception.
Unfortunately for me many people have subscribed to the fake facebook which I now own properly. So even as I closed it temporarily, I reopened it knowing that it is now safe and I can continue to add more friends rather than reverting to the original one I opened long before which I never used actually. That is why the comment which Jonathan quoted is not there on it. The imposter might have opened another Aliyu Tilde facebook after realizing that he could no longer use the first one he created. My cyber guru friends should please help me sort this mess out. Or was it from that young fan of mine, or the bad guy has cloned my email again? I can't tell because I could not access the page from where Jonathan got his quotation.
I have been advised to paste my picture on the facebook or add Dr. before my name or PhD after it. I don't like parading titles unnecessarily. I hate pictures too. I thought writing my name in full name - Aliyu U. Tilde - as I started doing in my articles since Bello alerted me on the fake Facebook was enough. Now, with this development, I have to paste my picture, boroboro, plainly.
This matter raises a lot of questions about safety on the cyberspace. Three weeks ago when I wrote Poor Northerners! I mentioned how someone in 2005 invented an email address in my name and that of Mohammed Haruna by altering our existing email addresses and used it to post hate mails and articles regarding southerners on the Internet. Clearly he was an Obasanjo man. Dat one don pass. Now anoda wahala don come from a Jonathan man. We need to tighten our security on the Internet, it seems.
I sincerely doubt that there could be another Aliyu Tilde. Well, I may be wrong, but I doubt very much. All the Tildes that I know so far in public domain are from my village. I alone bear the first name Aliyu. There are two other Aliyu Tildes, both my former teachers in the primary school: one bearing Aliyu Saad Tilde, my uncle and headmaster, now a retiree; and the other, Aliyu Tukur Tilde, our present village head and my in law. There could be some among the Fulani in Guinea from where our ancestors came and where there are villages bearing Tilde. But there the name is written 'aliou', being a French speaking country. The one that wrote that 'heroic' quotation, however, was Nigerian, not French.
Ladies and Gentlemen, the Jonathan campaign has clarifications to make. I welcome the idea of being the EFCC boss after the tenure of my sister Farida. Ha. Mahaukaci ya hau kura. The first people I would send straight to jail would be the First lady and her husband, for as al-Mutanabbi once said, "whoever makes a lion a falcon for his hunting, that lion will hunt him among the things he hunts."
Let the fake Aliyu Tilde know that all day is for the thief, one day for the owner. If I court any presidential wrath and I am declared wanted by the Nigerian authorities, which I believe would come soon, the SSS may not know which Aliyu Tilde to catch. They may grap him. That day he will swear and confess to his impersonation. I will then swear that I am not the Aliyu Tilde they are looking for: Na him. Mumu. E no sabi campaign better sef. E de chop money while e leave me suffer for village. Carry am go, jare!
Bauchi,
8 November 2010
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
blog: http://fridaydiscourse.blogspot.comk
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Discourse 300 Jonathan and the Hawks
Discourse 300
By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
Jonathan and the Northern Hawks
The Northern Political Forum that took place last week in Kaduna was a significant attempt by the Jonathan camp to win the PDP ticket that will enable him continue with his presidency until 2015, presumably. The meeting was attended by some notable figures from the three northern zones who, though short of rejecting zoning totally, unanimously approved the PDP ticket for Jonathan in 2011, according to what was shown on the national television. On the one hand, their decision raised hopes for Jonathan and, on the other, generates some fears about his ability to deliver on his promises.
After the welcome address by the Governor of Kaduna State who spoke the usual official language of Nigerian unity, the ball was set rolling by Solomon Lar who argued that zoning was adopted as a temporary measure which was meant to be disposed of when our democracy has matured, literally saying now is the time. Coming at his heel was Hassan Adamu. After affirming that no one can win the Presidency without the support of the North and recalling how the North has made sacrifices before to ensure that the country remains united, he posited that this is another opportunity where the region will exhibit its large heart. But this time, in return for its support, the President must be given what Adamu called a “northern agenda” which will protect the interest of the region. Adamu’s stand was strongly supported by the Sokoto Prince, Shehu Malami. The Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Bayero Nafada, also called on the North to make sacrifice for the sake of the unity of the country. He was practical in his argument. The North, he said, would have sought the same ticket were it in Jonathan’s shoes.
Then came the turn of zonal representatives of the PDP. Barnabas Gemade started by presenting the position of the Northcentral. He drafted God into the equation, saying zoning the presidency could be man-made as it was in 1999 or God ordained as it is in the case of Jonathan. Impliedly, Gemade is asking: Who are we to act against the wish of God then? But more than that, Gemade hinted the core argument of the pro-Jonathan group: the ticket of Yar’adua and Jonathan were joint and inseparable. So Jonathan should continue in 2011 as if he were Yar’adua. Kaulaha Aliyu from the Northeast joined the choir by arguing that zoning was a child of necessity and it is not required now. Ibrahim Ida presented the view of the Northwest PDP. However, the NTA transmission became inaudible and he was cut short. But with Shagari and Shehu Malami at the summit, I once can pretty right predict what Ida said.
Women, for the first time were called to express their opinion in such a gathering. They said, in the words of their spokeswoman, Mariam Waziri, that they are indifferent to zoning as “they” were not consulted when it was introduced in the first place. Pubic office, she said, should be given based on merit regardless of one’s religious and ethnic background. Jonathan merits it, in short, according to “northern women.”
So came the communiqué, read by Jerry Gana the foremost propagandist of Obasanjo’s third term bid, affirming the support of the gathering to, one, free and fair elections; two, the development of the North, promising a seminar to be held shortly on how the North would be developed economically; and, three, Jonathan’s ticket in 2011 election. The voice was Gana’s, but the logic was Gemade’s: the zoning ticket that produced Yar’adua and Goodluck as President and Vice-President respectively was a joint ticket that is inseparable; “the demise of one does not invalidate the other”, said Gana. Shi ke nan.
Of course, I forgot to mention the names of people like Mantu, Muhammad Abba Aji and so on. What these people said was obvious. I am rather more concerned by those I did not see, Adamu Ciroma, TY Danjuma, Iorchiya Ayu, Waku, Atiku and other proponents of zoning. Part of the problem is the misappropriation of names where any group today can claim to be representing a region. Are we therefore likely to see a counter-summit of pro-zoning supporters from the North and the Southeast? Or have they been beaten to submission? It is curious to note how appeal to national unity and patriotism is used now to repeal zoning just as they were used to introduce it in 1999.. If you have opposed zoning in 1999 you were unpatriotic; if you support it now you are still unpatriotic! Mhmm. Politicians can be good philosophers, I think. Even Aristotle cannot argue better.
It is logical for a summit like this to arrive at this conclusion given the track record of the politicians who gathered there and the nature of the country’s economy. I cannot remember any of the politicians at the summit who owns a surviving factory from which he earns a living. If anything, they have only helped to ruin the few in the North established by Lebanese and other northerners. Our political class, generally, is completely dependent on government, a reality that makes them compliant to the wishes of any incumbent. That is why coups were the only channels through which undesirable regimes could be removed for most part of African history. Jonathan, therefore, must not see their effort as genuine. It is rather an expression of their dependency on whoever is in power.
For now, their support will sound like music to his ears, but he must not forget that the same class were responsible for the failure of all previous leaders. They rundown the Shagari government and rigged the 1983 elections (Shagari attended the summit); they toed the path of IBB in ruining our economy to non-recoverable levels and participated in his ill-fated transition program. They served as ministers of Abacha and approved his actions until when he failed to handover power to them. They brought Obasanjo to power and assisted him in running the most corrupt government and the worst civilian dictatorship. They conscripted Yar’adua knowing very well that he was terminally ill after failing to convince Nigerians to allow Obasanjo a third term. (One can say that majority of those who attended the summit were pro-Obasanjo, reincarnating the fear that Jonathan represents Obasanjo’s third term) And now, they are racing to support Jonathan by doing everything possible to deny the zoning they enacted ten years earlier when they wanted to sell a southern ticket to Northerners.
It is understandable and expected that the President is becoming expedient in his bid to win the PDP ticket. However, I have a number of fears. First, I am afraid when I heard them speak at the summit about a “northern agenda” that will take care of the interest of the region which they will present him with. Are they genuinely expecting Jonathan to correct the injuries they inflicted on the North or are they using such expression as subterfuge to make us believe that they have the North at heart? When in the communiqué they said they support free and fair elections, we are bound to ask when did any of them ever in his life practiced free and fair elections? Did not they rig in the NPN? Did not they abandon June 12 and followed Abacha? Did not they rig in 2003 and 2007? Only a fool would believe a person that has been rigging for fifty years but who suddenly claims to be a prophet of free and fair election.
Secondly, I see a lot of danger in their argument, for Jonathan, for the North and for the so-called zoning formula. They have created a room for further confusion in future in order to return and use the North again as a bargaining chip with the President in 2015. By hinging their support to Jonathan on the argument of “joint ticket” with late Yar’adua instead of issuing a totally new one to the incumbent, they created a room for the argument to be revisited at the expiration of the eight years of Yar’adua/Goodluck ticket, i.e. in 2015. The President will then need to come back and beg them for another term. Then we will be taken again through another circle of arguments and summits on zoning, allowing charlatans to raise emotions of religion and sectionalism again. The Yar’adua/Goodluck ticket is a northern ticket, they said. When it expires in 2015, are we expecting a bonafide southern ticket? Why did they find it difficult to declare the demise of zoning, once and for all, by accepting Baba Lar’s argument that it was only a temporary measure which does not suit Nigeria today and forever? Incidentally, they are free to do so because no other party is supporting zoning. I hope the PDP will be bold enough to scrap zoning in their NEC meeting this week such that the matter dies, once and for all, though not without some implications for the future of politics in the country.
Thirdly, the methods of Jonathan in gaining the ticket leaves a lot to be desired and I hope they are only short-term. The manner in which he sacked the PDP chairman portrayed him as bereft of any superior talent than Obasanjo. Power is the end. The type of people he recruited as foot soldiers in his ticket campaign suggests that he can hardly lead the reform needed by both his party and country. This inevitably leads to the fourth fear: that he may not be committed to free and fair elections, after all.
Going by the above, which people and methods would Jonathan employ to garner his winning votes in 2011? We all know that it takes more than Jega’s INEC to achieve that. In fact, most of the work remains with the President who must contain the military, the police, and security agents who in the past have been at the forefront of election malpractices. He must convince the 27 PDP governors to respect the votes of citizens bearing in mind that none of them was voted before freely and fairly. He must subdue his party to give up rigging, its greatest strength and largest constituency. He must abandon people like Obasanjo who tells him that nobody can conduct a free and fair election. Finally, in case the elections are rigged on his behalf, he must allow the judiciary a free hand to decide on his fate and that of his PDP governors. I am beginning to feel that this is a tall ambition. Jega cannot do this on his behalf. I have raised this doubt in a previous article when I said that the chances of free and fair election are bright only if Jonathan himself is not running.
In conclusion we will advise the President to urgently review his methods if he wants to live above the level of mediocrity of many past Nigerian leaders. It is difficult in politics, admittedly, but not impossible. But merit always comes with sacrifice. He can still reach out to credible people – even within his PDP – in all parts of the country, run an open campaign and genuinely win if he is able to achieve the confidence of the majority. His present approach and companionship, however, compel us to start entertaining the fear that under him business will remain as usual. We have so advised his immediate two predecessors. None of them listened. Would he make a difference? Only time can tell.
Tilde,
19 July 2010
By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
Jonathan and the Northern Hawks
The Northern Political Forum that took place last week in Kaduna was a significant attempt by the Jonathan camp to win the PDP ticket that will enable him continue with his presidency until 2015, presumably. The meeting was attended by some notable figures from the three northern zones who, though short of rejecting zoning totally, unanimously approved the PDP ticket for Jonathan in 2011, according to what was shown on the national television. On the one hand, their decision raised hopes for Jonathan and, on the other, generates some fears about his ability to deliver on his promises.
After the welcome address by the Governor of Kaduna State who spoke the usual official language of Nigerian unity, the ball was set rolling by Solomon Lar who argued that zoning was adopted as a temporary measure which was meant to be disposed of when our democracy has matured, literally saying now is the time. Coming at his heel was Hassan Adamu. After affirming that no one can win the Presidency without the support of the North and recalling how the North has made sacrifices before to ensure that the country remains united, he posited that this is another opportunity where the region will exhibit its large heart. But this time, in return for its support, the President must be given what Adamu called a “northern agenda” which will protect the interest of the region. Adamu’s stand was strongly supported by the Sokoto Prince, Shehu Malami. The Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Bayero Nafada, also called on the North to make sacrifice for the sake of the unity of the country. He was practical in his argument. The North, he said, would have sought the same ticket were it in Jonathan’s shoes.
Then came the turn of zonal representatives of the PDP. Barnabas Gemade started by presenting the position of the Northcentral. He drafted God into the equation, saying zoning the presidency could be man-made as it was in 1999 or God ordained as it is in the case of Jonathan. Impliedly, Gemade is asking: Who are we to act against the wish of God then? But more than that, Gemade hinted the core argument of the pro-Jonathan group: the ticket of Yar’adua and Jonathan were joint and inseparable. So Jonathan should continue in 2011 as if he were Yar’adua. Kaulaha Aliyu from the Northeast joined the choir by arguing that zoning was a child of necessity and it is not required now. Ibrahim Ida presented the view of the Northwest PDP. However, the NTA transmission became inaudible and he was cut short. But with Shagari and Shehu Malami at the summit, I once can pretty right predict what Ida said.
Women, for the first time were called to express their opinion in such a gathering. They said, in the words of their spokeswoman, Mariam Waziri, that they are indifferent to zoning as “they” were not consulted when it was introduced in the first place. Pubic office, she said, should be given based on merit regardless of one’s religious and ethnic background. Jonathan merits it, in short, according to “northern women.”
So came the communiqué, read by Jerry Gana the foremost propagandist of Obasanjo’s third term bid, affirming the support of the gathering to, one, free and fair elections; two, the development of the North, promising a seminar to be held shortly on how the North would be developed economically; and, three, Jonathan’s ticket in 2011 election. The voice was Gana’s, but the logic was Gemade’s: the zoning ticket that produced Yar’adua and Goodluck as President and Vice-President respectively was a joint ticket that is inseparable; “the demise of one does not invalidate the other”, said Gana. Shi ke nan.
Of course, I forgot to mention the names of people like Mantu, Muhammad Abba Aji and so on. What these people said was obvious. I am rather more concerned by those I did not see, Adamu Ciroma, TY Danjuma, Iorchiya Ayu, Waku, Atiku and other proponents of zoning. Part of the problem is the misappropriation of names where any group today can claim to be representing a region. Are we therefore likely to see a counter-summit of pro-zoning supporters from the North and the Southeast? Or have they been beaten to submission? It is curious to note how appeal to national unity and patriotism is used now to repeal zoning just as they were used to introduce it in 1999.. If you have opposed zoning in 1999 you were unpatriotic; if you support it now you are still unpatriotic! Mhmm. Politicians can be good philosophers, I think. Even Aristotle cannot argue better.
It is logical for a summit like this to arrive at this conclusion given the track record of the politicians who gathered there and the nature of the country’s economy. I cannot remember any of the politicians at the summit who owns a surviving factory from which he earns a living. If anything, they have only helped to ruin the few in the North established by Lebanese and other northerners. Our political class, generally, is completely dependent on government, a reality that makes them compliant to the wishes of any incumbent. That is why coups were the only channels through which undesirable regimes could be removed for most part of African history. Jonathan, therefore, must not see their effort as genuine. It is rather an expression of their dependency on whoever is in power.
For now, their support will sound like music to his ears, but he must not forget that the same class were responsible for the failure of all previous leaders. They rundown the Shagari government and rigged the 1983 elections (Shagari attended the summit); they toed the path of IBB in ruining our economy to non-recoverable levels and participated in his ill-fated transition program. They served as ministers of Abacha and approved his actions until when he failed to handover power to them. They brought Obasanjo to power and assisted him in running the most corrupt government and the worst civilian dictatorship. They conscripted Yar’adua knowing very well that he was terminally ill after failing to convince Nigerians to allow Obasanjo a third term. (One can say that majority of those who attended the summit were pro-Obasanjo, reincarnating the fear that Jonathan represents Obasanjo’s third term) And now, they are racing to support Jonathan by doing everything possible to deny the zoning they enacted ten years earlier when they wanted to sell a southern ticket to Northerners.
It is understandable and expected that the President is becoming expedient in his bid to win the PDP ticket. However, I have a number of fears. First, I am afraid when I heard them speak at the summit about a “northern agenda” that will take care of the interest of the region which they will present him with. Are they genuinely expecting Jonathan to correct the injuries they inflicted on the North or are they using such expression as subterfuge to make us believe that they have the North at heart? When in the communiqué they said they support free and fair elections, we are bound to ask when did any of them ever in his life practiced free and fair elections? Did not they rig in the NPN? Did not they abandon June 12 and followed Abacha? Did not they rig in 2003 and 2007? Only a fool would believe a person that has been rigging for fifty years but who suddenly claims to be a prophet of free and fair election.
Secondly, I see a lot of danger in their argument, for Jonathan, for the North and for the so-called zoning formula. They have created a room for further confusion in future in order to return and use the North again as a bargaining chip with the President in 2015. By hinging their support to Jonathan on the argument of “joint ticket” with late Yar’adua instead of issuing a totally new one to the incumbent, they created a room for the argument to be revisited at the expiration of the eight years of Yar’adua/Goodluck ticket, i.e. in 2015. The President will then need to come back and beg them for another term. Then we will be taken again through another circle of arguments and summits on zoning, allowing charlatans to raise emotions of religion and sectionalism again. The Yar’adua/Goodluck ticket is a northern ticket, they said. When it expires in 2015, are we expecting a bonafide southern ticket? Why did they find it difficult to declare the demise of zoning, once and for all, by accepting Baba Lar’s argument that it was only a temporary measure which does not suit Nigeria today and forever? Incidentally, they are free to do so because no other party is supporting zoning. I hope the PDP will be bold enough to scrap zoning in their NEC meeting this week such that the matter dies, once and for all, though not without some implications for the future of politics in the country.
Thirdly, the methods of Jonathan in gaining the ticket leaves a lot to be desired and I hope they are only short-term. The manner in which he sacked the PDP chairman portrayed him as bereft of any superior talent than Obasanjo. Power is the end. The type of people he recruited as foot soldiers in his ticket campaign suggests that he can hardly lead the reform needed by both his party and country. This inevitably leads to the fourth fear: that he may not be committed to free and fair elections, after all.
Going by the above, which people and methods would Jonathan employ to garner his winning votes in 2011? We all know that it takes more than Jega’s INEC to achieve that. In fact, most of the work remains with the President who must contain the military, the police, and security agents who in the past have been at the forefront of election malpractices. He must convince the 27 PDP governors to respect the votes of citizens bearing in mind that none of them was voted before freely and fairly. He must subdue his party to give up rigging, its greatest strength and largest constituency. He must abandon people like Obasanjo who tells him that nobody can conduct a free and fair election. Finally, in case the elections are rigged on his behalf, he must allow the judiciary a free hand to decide on his fate and that of his PDP governors. I am beginning to feel that this is a tall ambition. Jega cannot do this on his behalf. I have raised this doubt in a previous article when I said that the chances of free and fair election are bright only if Jonathan himself is not running.
In conclusion we will advise the President to urgently review his methods if he wants to live above the level of mediocrity of many past Nigerian leaders. It is difficult in politics, admittedly, but not impossible. But merit always comes with sacrifice. He can still reach out to credible people – even within his PDP – in all parts of the country, run an open campaign and genuinely win if he is able to achieve the confidence of the majority. His present approach and companionship, however, compel us to start entertaining the fear that under him business will remain as usual. We have so advised his immediate two predecessors. None of them listened. Would he make a difference? Only time can tell.
Tilde,
19 July 2010
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Discourse 298 Jonathan and the Northwest
Discourse 298
By Dr. Aliyu Tilde
Jonathan and the Northwest
I concluded The Days of Jonathan by giving the new Nigerian President a choice between continuing beyond 2011 and handing over to a newly elected President by that date. If he favours the former, he should “persuade his party to accord him the ticket and win his tenure through free and fair elections.” If he chooses the latter, however, he should “smake his days colourful by painting them with the colours of selflessness, equity and justice.” I can now say conclusively that though my preference went for the latter, Jonathan has chosen the former. There are strong indications that he wants to contest the election in 2011 and he is likely to announce this after finishing consultations.
It is clear from the above that even in those days I was not bogged down by the a priori moral precept of the PDP zoning formula. In fact, since 2002 I have argued against rotational presidency because it limits to only 16.7% the chances of Nigeria getting the best President. It is also undemocratic and puts the stamp of permanence to the divisions we inherited from colonial times when we should be doing everything to get rid of them. It is not surprising therefore that only the PDP has adopted that formula. More importantly, even for the PDP that adopted it, it has proved impracticable within just ten years.
What is interesting in the impracticability of that PDP zoning formula is how it has put the best two bedfellows in Nigerian political history at loggerheads. The wrestling is essentially now between the South-south from where Jonathan hails on the one hand and the Northwest that has monopolized power in the North, on the other. Since independence, the Northwest has always used the South-south to leap itself to power and the South-south has remained its surest partner. Now with Jonathan in power, the South-south is asking for a return gesture in that partnership of half a century.
To me this is the core of the matter, but the Jonathan camp itself is making a blunder in the manner it is going about its persuasion. I thought Clarke, the most senior South-south elder in the Jonathan advocacy, would take a flight to Minna, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina and Sokoto to win for his son a support that would reciprocate the role his zone has played during its long history of political partnership with the Northwest. Attempting to appeal to what the papers call “northern minorities” first is likely to lead the two best friends to washing their dirty linens in public. That is the Jonathan side.
However, I expect that even without his request, the Northwest will be generous enough to support him. In fact, this is something long overdue as it was the right thing to do in 1999. The Northwest should have picked a southern candidate from the South-south. Instead, they went for Obasanjo, from the Southwest, who finally proved to be a nemesis for those who shoved him to power. Supporting Jonathan now would really give the Northwest a record of accommodation and sacrifice in political partnership. The South-south and other zones would then see reason in aligning with it in future because it pays. However, if it insists in clinching the PDP ticket, then it has committed a blunder for the second time – in 1999 and 2011 – by elevating its interest above that of their partnership. After all, what would single tenure of four years tenure (2011 – 2015) provide for the Northwest that nine previous tenures which spanned for over three decades did not provide it with? In fact, power has only helped to corrupt the Northwest more than it did to the other parts of the country. Because of this, the region today has the lowest human development indices and poverty is most pervasive there. So acceding power to Goodluck would be good riddance for the ordinary Northwesterner.
I believe it is not too late for both sides to discover a common ground. Jonathan must abandon the present mathematical approach to the situation. Let him take the moral argument to the Northwest and win their support. The Northwest must not hesitate, on the other hand, to lend him and his zone their support. It has the moral obligation to do so. We, the other Nigerians, are onlookers waiting for the election day.
As a footnote, I must explain to my readers why I singled out the Northwest instead of using the North as Nigerians are used to and as I have used severally in the past. This is largely based on the statistical analysis of power in this country. I have realized, as I once hinted in this column, that when speaking in terms of power, the Northwest has failed to share it with other parts of the North. All the nine political leaders we had from the North who ruled Nigeria, except for Balewa who sat in for Sardauna in Lagos, were from areas that fell either in the former Northwestern State or the present Northwestern zone. The count: Sardauna (Sokoto), Gowon (Kaduna), Murtala (Kano), Shagari (Sokoto), Buhari (Katsina), Babangida (Niger), Abacha (Kano), Abdulsalami (Niger) and Yar’adua (Katsina). It is also not surprising that all the contenders of Jonathan in the PDP so far are from that area. And I would not like to believe that there are equally competent people from other parts of the North.
The statistics are so overwhelmingly lopsided that people from Northeast or the Middle Belt no longer have an appetite for a common “North” nomenclature. That is why the comment of a Fulani VOA Hausa Service listener from Taraba did not come as a surprise when asked whether Jonathan should be given or denied the PDP ticket. He said, “I do not mind if Jonathan is given the ticket because in the North, you are not considered a Northerner unless you come from the Northwest. For us who are in Taraba, some people even consider us as aliens.” He spoke the truth I think, though we must be careful not to generalize here. The Northwest we are referring to is not that of its entire citizens, but that of its political elite who have consistently put themselves first before others, who have not realized that the world is fast changing.
I am opening this wound deliberately because it is beginning to spread at an alarming rate. We earlier dismissed it as an Atiku affair but it has gained ground to the extent that it needs to be addressed as evidenced from the above quoted VOA comment. For those in the Northwest who want a united North – or better still, a united Nigeria – it is a challenge that they must stand up to.
Secondly, all the discussion about zoning is relevant only in the context of rigged elections. Despite the pledge of Jonathan and the capacity of Jega, people are still waiting to see before they believe that their votes would count. In an atmosphere of free and fair election and multiparty democracy zoning will matter least because with time the PDP will lose its predominance unless it performs in office creditably. Elections will increasingly be determined by merit to the extent that the ethnic, religious and regional attributes of a candidate would not matter. Right now, its incumbency plus rigging give it the weight to be considered as the next tenant of the Presidential Villa. That is why Nigerians are concerned about what happens in the party.
As at now, Jonathan and the Northwest should go to their common bed quietly. We are watching them.
Abuja,
8 July 2010
By Dr. Aliyu Tilde
Jonathan and the Northwest
I concluded The Days of Jonathan by giving the new Nigerian President a choice between continuing beyond 2011 and handing over to a newly elected President by that date. If he favours the former, he should “persuade his party to accord him the ticket and win his tenure through free and fair elections.” If he chooses the latter, however, he should “smake his days colourful by painting them with the colours of selflessness, equity and justice.” I can now say conclusively that though my preference went for the latter, Jonathan has chosen the former. There are strong indications that he wants to contest the election in 2011 and he is likely to announce this after finishing consultations.
It is clear from the above that even in those days I was not bogged down by the a priori moral precept of the PDP zoning formula. In fact, since 2002 I have argued against rotational presidency because it limits to only 16.7% the chances of Nigeria getting the best President. It is also undemocratic and puts the stamp of permanence to the divisions we inherited from colonial times when we should be doing everything to get rid of them. It is not surprising therefore that only the PDP has adopted that formula. More importantly, even for the PDP that adopted it, it has proved impracticable within just ten years.
What is interesting in the impracticability of that PDP zoning formula is how it has put the best two bedfellows in Nigerian political history at loggerheads. The wrestling is essentially now between the South-south from where Jonathan hails on the one hand and the Northwest that has monopolized power in the North, on the other. Since independence, the Northwest has always used the South-south to leap itself to power and the South-south has remained its surest partner. Now with Jonathan in power, the South-south is asking for a return gesture in that partnership of half a century.
To me this is the core of the matter, but the Jonathan camp itself is making a blunder in the manner it is going about its persuasion. I thought Clarke, the most senior South-south elder in the Jonathan advocacy, would take a flight to Minna, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina and Sokoto to win for his son a support that would reciprocate the role his zone has played during its long history of political partnership with the Northwest. Attempting to appeal to what the papers call “northern minorities” first is likely to lead the two best friends to washing their dirty linens in public. That is the Jonathan side.
However, I expect that even without his request, the Northwest will be generous enough to support him. In fact, this is something long overdue as it was the right thing to do in 1999. The Northwest should have picked a southern candidate from the South-south. Instead, they went for Obasanjo, from the Southwest, who finally proved to be a nemesis for those who shoved him to power. Supporting Jonathan now would really give the Northwest a record of accommodation and sacrifice in political partnership. The South-south and other zones would then see reason in aligning with it in future because it pays. However, if it insists in clinching the PDP ticket, then it has committed a blunder for the second time – in 1999 and 2011 – by elevating its interest above that of their partnership. After all, what would single tenure of four years tenure (2011 – 2015) provide for the Northwest that nine previous tenures which spanned for over three decades did not provide it with? In fact, power has only helped to corrupt the Northwest more than it did to the other parts of the country. Because of this, the region today has the lowest human development indices and poverty is most pervasive there. So acceding power to Goodluck would be good riddance for the ordinary Northwesterner.
I believe it is not too late for both sides to discover a common ground. Jonathan must abandon the present mathematical approach to the situation. Let him take the moral argument to the Northwest and win their support. The Northwest must not hesitate, on the other hand, to lend him and his zone their support. It has the moral obligation to do so. We, the other Nigerians, are onlookers waiting for the election day.
As a footnote, I must explain to my readers why I singled out the Northwest instead of using the North as Nigerians are used to and as I have used severally in the past. This is largely based on the statistical analysis of power in this country. I have realized, as I once hinted in this column, that when speaking in terms of power, the Northwest has failed to share it with other parts of the North. All the nine political leaders we had from the North who ruled Nigeria, except for Balewa who sat in for Sardauna in Lagos, were from areas that fell either in the former Northwestern State or the present Northwestern zone. The count: Sardauna (Sokoto), Gowon (Kaduna), Murtala (Kano), Shagari (Sokoto), Buhari (Katsina), Babangida (Niger), Abacha (Kano), Abdulsalami (Niger) and Yar’adua (Katsina). It is also not surprising that all the contenders of Jonathan in the PDP so far are from that area. And I would not like to believe that there are equally competent people from other parts of the North.
The statistics are so overwhelmingly lopsided that people from Northeast or the Middle Belt no longer have an appetite for a common “North” nomenclature. That is why the comment of a Fulani VOA Hausa Service listener from Taraba did not come as a surprise when asked whether Jonathan should be given or denied the PDP ticket. He said, “I do not mind if Jonathan is given the ticket because in the North, you are not considered a Northerner unless you come from the Northwest. For us who are in Taraba, some people even consider us as aliens.” He spoke the truth I think, though we must be careful not to generalize here. The Northwest we are referring to is not that of its entire citizens, but that of its political elite who have consistently put themselves first before others, who have not realized that the world is fast changing.
I am opening this wound deliberately because it is beginning to spread at an alarming rate. We earlier dismissed it as an Atiku affair but it has gained ground to the extent that it needs to be addressed as evidenced from the above quoted VOA comment. For those in the Northwest who want a united North – or better still, a united Nigeria – it is a challenge that they must stand up to.
Secondly, all the discussion about zoning is relevant only in the context of rigged elections. Despite the pledge of Jonathan and the capacity of Jega, people are still waiting to see before they believe that their votes would count. In an atmosphere of free and fair election and multiparty democracy zoning will matter least because with time the PDP will lose its predominance unless it performs in office creditably. Elections will increasingly be determined by merit to the extent that the ethnic, religious and regional attributes of a candidate would not matter. Right now, its incumbency plus rigging give it the weight to be considered as the next tenant of the Presidential Villa. That is why Nigerians are concerned about what happens in the party.
As at now, Jonathan and the Northwest should go to their common bed quietly. We are watching them.
Abuja,
8 July 2010
Friday, June 4, 2010
Discourse 295 Good Luck, Mr. Goodluck
Discourse 295
By Dr. Aliyu Tilde
http://fridaydiscourse.blogspot.com
Good Luck, Mr. Goodluck
Nigerians are pitching their hope for a better democracy in the appointment of new members of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The body has in the past distinguished itself with election malpractices in favour of incumbent governments, particularly those belonging to the ruling party. INEC officials have on many occasions announced election results even before voting or collation was completed. Its immediate past chairman, Professor Maurice Iwu, publicly abused opposition candidates and violated court orders with impunity. Just think of any electoral malpractice under the sun and I will assure you that INEC, through many of its officials, has contemplated, invented, practised, condoned, supervised, rewarded, justified, aided or abetted it. All it only needed to do during any election was to announce the winner, by hook or crook, and the rest is left to the corrupt Nigerian courts to approve it with the stamp of legal authority. And the opposition candidate returns home helpless.
The opposition at various levels and from different parties, including the ruling party candidates in states that are controlled by minority parties, like Borno and Yobe states, must have felt helpless several times since 1999. However, generally speaking, in elections conducted by INEC, the ruling party, PDP, has continued to gain more and more executive and legislative seats at both state and national levels at the peril of others. Today, with the unholy spirit of INEC, Nigeria is effectively at the eve of becoming a one party state unless the national elections of next year prove to be free and fair.
The world has been witness to this perfidy that nearly truncated democracy in 2007 if not for the promise of electoral reforms that the then declared ‘winner’ of the presidential election, late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua, made to the world. Though many Nigerians became sceptical of Yar’adua’s commitment to his words since he strongly defended his decision to retain the power of appointing the INEC chairman and his failure to deliver on other promises too, the world was ready to give him another chance in 2011. And with Obama’s threat to isolate any African government that would come through flouted electoral process, the pressure has reached a threshold that is forcing the Nigerian government to cave in.
Thus, there has not been a more daunting task ahead of the new President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, than holding free and fair elections in 2011. To that effect he gave his words to himself, to his county, to America and to the rest of the world. And neither the Americans nor his countrymen are relenting in their pressure because they know that promises are easier made that kept. If he will hold free and fair elections, America and many Nigerians have expressed their readiness to accept his candidature, doing away with the zoning precept of the ruling party that does not favour him. Jonathan on his part has tactfully kept the question of his candidature open while doing whatever is possible to convince the doubting Thomases that he will keep his promise of free and fair elections in 2011. If he will not contest, many observers say, Jonathan has a better chance of fulfilling the promise than if he chooses to run because he is likely to be persuaded by self-interest to hearken to the calls that advise him to break it.
And the pressure of that advice is already mounting from his political godfather, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who is renowned for breaking promises and who is so convinced of the inevitability of self-interest that he bluntly declared some weeks ago that “not even Jesus Christ could hold free and fair elections.” Subhanallah! This blasphemous pronouncement, coming from a person who is also Chairman, Board of Trustees of the ruling PDP, eloquently captures the mindset of the party as regards 2011 elections. Most commentators believe that under no circumstance will the PDP commit this political suicide. Obasanjo therefore was only being less hypocritical than others. I know there are millions of Nigerians, including most candidates and leaders of the 56 other political parties, who will walk every inch to frustrate the conduct of free and fair elections. So, Jonathan should be ready to go it alone, deserted and subverted by his party.
The big question here is whether Jonathan has the capacity to weather such a Category-5 hurricane that will surely hit his noble intention. I think he is right when he said the problem does not lie with the electoral laws as much as it does with our attitude. The election day in Nigeria is the day when hell is let loose. With every policeman partaking in managing the elections, there is no instrument left to enforce law and order. You can correctly declare it as national day of lawlessness, a good specimen of anarchy. Everybody is left to the prudence of his conscience and the liberty of his devices. And the conscience of Nigerian politicians is callously imprudent while their devises are amazingly unsophisticated. Aware of the importance of that day to the continuity of their lavish lifestyle, they launch whatever is in their capacity of money, thugs, and weapons into the battlefield of electoral contest. Governors and ministers will loot billions of naira from public treasury and businessmen and politicians will invest several other billions in bribing election officials to allow, aid or commit various malpractices. Billions of naira will be spent on hiring soldiers, policemen and unemployed youths who will scare, beat and, where necessary, kill voters and opposition candidates or snatch ballot papers and boxes. Poor Jonathan will remain in the Presidential villa, waiting for Nigerians and the world to attest that the elections were free and fair. Unless he can do something to change this attitude, his promise of free and fair elections will remain unfulfilled.
In his attempt to change that attitude and find some company in his lonely journey, the President is putting his eggs in the basket of credible INEC officials. Jonathan has promised to appoint people whom he believes are trustworthy, impartial and competent. To prove his loyalty to his promise, the President asked the former INEC chairman to leave before his tenure ended. Then people started bombarding him with lists of ‘credible’ people. Obasanjo, who believes that every INEC position must be occupied by a bonafide member of the ruling PDP, read the mindset of the President, combed the party and came up with the name of Dr. Dora Akunyili, the present Minister of Information despite the fact that Obasanjo himself did not give the courageous woman that seat during his tenure. But in what could be translated as a manifestation of rebellion, Jonathan quietly disobeyed the doctrine of Obasanjo, rejected the prescriptions of other equally powerful politicians and discounted our speculations. Last week he told the world that he has chosen a person whom he has never met to chair INEC, someone who is also not a member of any party. It is also expected that he will use the same yardstick in appointing other members of the commission and its state electoral commissioners.
Of course, appointing credible people will go a long way in solving the attitudinal problem especially if it is done thoroughly down to the local government level and if they are given the necessary free hand and resources to perform creditably. What remains is changing the attitude of the police, from the Inspector General down to the constable, to the extent that will enable them to side with the law whenever they are confronted by an Everest of bribe money. The police must arrest whoever breaks the law, including military officers who are increasingly collecting huge sums to meddle with election, while INEC should cancel any result that is obtained dubiously.
Beyond the police will be the judiciary that needs to be freed from executive interference and the glitter of wealth. I support that the elections be held in January because it will guarantee the judiciary the freedom they need to pass impartial judgements on election appeals before Jonathan leaves office. Otherwise, I just cannot see how a President, even a Jonathan President, who will, after sworn in as a result of flout elections, allow the courts to turndown the results that brought him and his colleagues to power. We have seen this in the case of late President Yar’adua and his in-law governor. Jonathan must defy his predecessor in this and in plenty other respects.
Finally, I do not think the politicians will change any bit. You cannot teach an old dog a new trick. But a way of checking them is for the President to mobilize the masses against anyone intending to pervert their choice. Once the masses are sufficiently mobilised and emboldened through media campaigns to guard their rights and they are assured that they will not be punished for doing so, experience has shown that the politicians will become immobilized. Sarkin yawa ya fi sarkin karfi.
To achieve the above, Jonathan and his co-travellers will require four things: commitment of the President, resources, time and the understanding of fellow Nigerians. While there is no basis so far to question the commitment of the President or doubt the availability of the resources required, given that this year’s independence celebration alone will consume as much as N10 billion, there is every need to work against time. So much time is required to plan an election that is free of violence and fair to all contestants in a country of 150 million people with 57 political parties. Above all, it is doubtful that in less than a year the police and the judiciary will understand, let alone to imbibe, the civic duty of conducting a free and fair election.
Finally, asking and getting the understanding and cooperation of Nigerians is herculean. We have passed through thick forests of deceit so much that it is difficult to trust our leaders anymore. Yet, if Jonathan will remain transparent regarding his promise, he will definitely gain our understanding and cooperative. We will celebrate his success and overlook his shortcomings. If, being Mr. Goodluck, he succeeds even at the peril of his seat and the hegemony of his party, he will remain celebrated as one of the foremost champions of democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa. If he fails, history will still attest to his goodwill and accord him a position commensurate with his good intention and acknowledge the impossibility of his circumstance. For me, all I can now say is good luck, Mr. Goodluck.
Tilde,
4 June 2010
For copies of previous articles, please visit my blog at http://fridaydiscourse.blogspot.com, or google Discourse with Dr. Tilde. To receive new articles directly into your email box please send your email address to aliyutilde@yahoo.com. Readers are free to share the articles with many friends including publishing them on their websites, facebook and blogs.
By Dr. Aliyu Tilde
http://fridaydiscourse.blogspot.com
Good Luck, Mr. Goodluck
Nigerians are pitching their hope for a better democracy in the appointment of new members of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The body has in the past distinguished itself with election malpractices in favour of incumbent governments, particularly those belonging to the ruling party. INEC officials have on many occasions announced election results even before voting or collation was completed. Its immediate past chairman, Professor Maurice Iwu, publicly abused opposition candidates and violated court orders with impunity. Just think of any electoral malpractice under the sun and I will assure you that INEC, through many of its officials, has contemplated, invented, practised, condoned, supervised, rewarded, justified, aided or abetted it. All it only needed to do during any election was to announce the winner, by hook or crook, and the rest is left to the corrupt Nigerian courts to approve it with the stamp of legal authority. And the opposition candidate returns home helpless.
The opposition at various levels and from different parties, including the ruling party candidates in states that are controlled by minority parties, like Borno and Yobe states, must have felt helpless several times since 1999. However, generally speaking, in elections conducted by INEC, the ruling party, PDP, has continued to gain more and more executive and legislative seats at both state and national levels at the peril of others. Today, with the unholy spirit of INEC, Nigeria is effectively at the eve of becoming a one party state unless the national elections of next year prove to be free and fair.
The world has been witness to this perfidy that nearly truncated democracy in 2007 if not for the promise of electoral reforms that the then declared ‘winner’ of the presidential election, late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua, made to the world. Though many Nigerians became sceptical of Yar’adua’s commitment to his words since he strongly defended his decision to retain the power of appointing the INEC chairman and his failure to deliver on other promises too, the world was ready to give him another chance in 2011. And with Obama’s threat to isolate any African government that would come through flouted electoral process, the pressure has reached a threshold that is forcing the Nigerian government to cave in.
Thus, there has not been a more daunting task ahead of the new President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, than holding free and fair elections in 2011. To that effect he gave his words to himself, to his county, to America and to the rest of the world. And neither the Americans nor his countrymen are relenting in their pressure because they know that promises are easier made that kept. If he will hold free and fair elections, America and many Nigerians have expressed their readiness to accept his candidature, doing away with the zoning precept of the ruling party that does not favour him. Jonathan on his part has tactfully kept the question of his candidature open while doing whatever is possible to convince the doubting Thomases that he will keep his promise of free and fair elections in 2011. If he will not contest, many observers say, Jonathan has a better chance of fulfilling the promise than if he chooses to run because he is likely to be persuaded by self-interest to hearken to the calls that advise him to break it.
And the pressure of that advice is already mounting from his political godfather, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who is renowned for breaking promises and who is so convinced of the inevitability of self-interest that he bluntly declared some weeks ago that “not even Jesus Christ could hold free and fair elections.” Subhanallah! This blasphemous pronouncement, coming from a person who is also Chairman, Board of Trustees of the ruling PDP, eloquently captures the mindset of the party as regards 2011 elections. Most commentators believe that under no circumstance will the PDP commit this political suicide. Obasanjo therefore was only being less hypocritical than others. I know there are millions of Nigerians, including most candidates and leaders of the 56 other political parties, who will walk every inch to frustrate the conduct of free and fair elections. So, Jonathan should be ready to go it alone, deserted and subverted by his party.
The big question here is whether Jonathan has the capacity to weather such a Category-5 hurricane that will surely hit his noble intention. I think he is right when he said the problem does not lie with the electoral laws as much as it does with our attitude. The election day in Nigeria is the day when hell is let loose. With every policeman partaking in managing the elections, there is no instrument left to enforce law and order. You can correctly declare it as national day of lawlessness, a good specimen of anarchy. Everybody is left to the prudence of his conscience and the liberty of his devices. And the conscience of Nigerian politicians is callously imprudent while their devises are amazingly unsophisticated. Aware of the importance of that day to the continuity of their lavish lifestyle, they launch whatever is in their capacity of money, thugs, and weapons into the battlefield of electoral contest. Governors and ministers will loot billions of naira from public treasury and businessmen and politicians will invest several other billions in bribing election officials to allow, aid or commit various malpractices. Billions of naira will be spent on hiring soldiers, policemen and unemployed youths who will scare, beat and, where necessary, kill voters and opposition candidates or snatch ballot papers and boxes. Poor Jonathan will remain in the Presidential villa, waiting for Nigerians and the world to attest that the elections were free and fair. Unless he can do something to change this attitude, his promise of free and fair elections will remain unfulfilled.
In his attempt to change that attitude and find some company in his lonely journey, the President is putting his eggs in the basket of credible INEC officials. Jonathan has promised to appoint people whom he believes are trustworthy, impartial and competent. To prove his loyalty to his promise, the President asked the former INEC chairman to leave before his tenure ended. Then people started bombarding him with lists of ‘credible’ people. Obasanjo, who believes that every INEC position must be occupied by a bonafide member of the ruling PDP, read the mindset of the President, combed the party and came up with the name of Dr. Dora Akunyili, the present Minister of Information despite the fact that Obasanjo himself did not give the courageous woman that seat during his tenure. But in what could be translated as a manifestation of rebellion, Jonathan quietly disobeyed the doctrine of Obasanjo, rejected the prescriptions of other equally powerful politicians and discounted our speculations. Last week he told the world that he has chosen a person whom he has never met to chair INEC, someone who is also not a member of any party. It is also expected that he will use the same yardstick in appointing other members of the commission and its state electoral commissioners.
Of course, appointing credible people will go a long way in solving the attitudinal problem especially if it is done thoroughly down to the local government level and if they are given the necessary free hand and resources to perform creditably. What remains is changing the attitude of the police, from the Inspector General down to the constable, to the extent that will enable them to side with the law whenever they are confronted by an Everest of bribe money. The police must arrest whoever breaks the law, including military officers who are increasingly collecting huge sums to meddle with election, while INEC should cancel any result that is obtained dubiously.
Beyond the police will be the judiciary that needs to be freed from executive interference and the glitter of wealth. I support that the elections be held in January because it will guarantee the judiciary the freedom they need to pass impartial judgements on election appeals before Jonathan leaves office. Otherwise, I just cannot see how a President, even a Jonathan President, who will, after sworn in as a result of flout elections, allow the courts to turndown the results that brought him and his colleagues to power. We have seen this in the case of late President Yar’adua and his in-law governor. Jonathan must defy his predecessor in this and in plenty other respects.
Finally, I do not think the politicians will change any bit. You cannot teach an old dog a new trick. But a way of checking them is for the President to mobilize the masses against anyone intending to pervert their choice. Once the masses are sufficiently mobilised and emboldened through media campaigns to guard their rights and they are assured that they will not be punished for doing so, experience has shown that the politicians will become immobilized. Sarkin yawa ya fi sarkin karfi.
To achieve the above, Jonathan and his co-travellers will require four things: commitment of the President, resources, time and the understanding of fellow Nigerians. While there is no basis so far to question the commitment of the President or doubt the availability of the resources required, given that this year’s independence celebration alone will consume as much as N10 billion, there is every need to work against time. So much time is required to plan an election that is free of violence and fair to all contestants in a country of 150 million people with 57 political parties. Above all, it is doubtful that in less than a year the police and the judiciary will understand, let alone to imbibe, the civic duty of conducting a free and fair election.
Finally, asking and getting the understanding and cooperation of Nigerians is herculean. We have passed through thick forests of deceit so much that it is difficult to trust our leaders anymore. Yet, if Jonathan will remain transparent regarding his promise, he will definitely gain our understanding and cooperative. We will celebrate his success and overlook his shortcomings. If, being Mr. Goodluck, he succeeds even at the peril of his seat and the hegemony of his party, he will remain celebrated as one of the foremost champions of democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa. If he fails, history will still attest to his goodwill and accord him a position commensurate with his good intention and acknowledge the impossibility of his circumstance. For me, all I can now say is good luck, Mr. Goodluck.
Tilde,
4 June 2010
For copies of previous articles, please visit my blog at http://fridaydiscourse.blogspot.com, or google Discourse with Dr. Tilde. To receive new articles directly into your email box please send your email address to aliyutilde@yahoo.com. Readers are free to share the articles with many friends including publishing them on their websites, facebook and blogs.
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