The Monster Ahead
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
In our discussion today, we will examine the threat of a one-party dominated Nigeria following the ‘victory’ of the PDP in the last election. Voices of conscience are beginning to alert the nation of its dangers.
Without any ambiguity, it is universally accepted that one-party dominated state is a total negation of what democracy stands for: choice. Nevertheless, the President has been advocating for it, purporting that from our experience multi-party democracy accentuates our “disintegrative tendencies.” On the contrary, both theory and practice would easily convince the dispassionate that a widespread ‘victory’ won by fraudulent electoral practice will only result in further corruption, apathy and, possibly, a shutdown.
Theory
In his book, Democratisation, first published in 1993, Professor Ben O. Nwabueze, a prolific law author and member of The Patriots, noted that “election rigging is a tragic aberration more for what it portends for the future than for the harm it has done in the past and present… A political party which has no chance of ever winning an election will have lost the raison d’etre for its existence. Sooner or later it will fade away through its members defecting to the ruling party as the hazards of opposition weigh more and more heavily upon them. In the process, the ruling party will eventually emerge as the only party for all practical purposes.”
To appreciate how the author arrived at this conclusion, it is necessary to present other premises of his argument in addition to the effects of hazards of opposition mentioned above. He wrote:
“From the standpoint of the political parties and their candidates, rigging deprives election of its character as a competition in which all the contestants can equally aspire to win. Where the capacity of the contestants to rig is vastly unequal because one of them is in a position of irresistible influence over the electoral body and has power of control and direction over the organised coercive force of the country, represented by the police, as well as vastly greater resources of money and patronage, then the other contestants have no real chance of winning. An election in these circumstances cannot be a competition in any meaningful sense of the word.
"An election contest in which the result is not determined by the votes lawfully cast for the contestants but by fraudulent manipulation is a mockery of the very idea of a competition. And without free competition for power, politics loses its essence. It is part of the terrible thing about election rigging that once successfully employed by a political party to get itself into power the tendency is for the party, rather than give it up and thereby risk defeat at future elections, to try to perfect its forms and techniques to a point where it becomes entrenched as part of the political culture, thereby excluding altogether the chances of elections ever being conducted in a free and fair manner."
Let us summarize what the author said above by saying that where rigging becomes the chief instrument of winning election, equality in aspiration to win could only exist when there is equality in the capacity to rig. Capacity to rig here is defined by three parameters: one, position of irresistible influence over the electoral body; two, power of control and direction over the organised coercive force of the country – represented by the police; and three, vastly greater resources of money and patronage. Since the opposition doesn’t have any share in the ‘possession’ of the electoral body, the police and the treasury, it should never expect to win. The ruling party then can stay in power almost ad infinitum.
Practice
The experience of nations especially in Africa and the Middle East has proved the absolute validity of Nwabueze’s argument. Egypt, Algeria, Sudan, Kenya, Zambia, Cameroon, Zimbabwe, Iraq – to mention few – have all claimed to be multiparty democracies while in actual fact each of them is ruled by only one party for decades. Toppling such parties, as we have seen recently in Kenya and nearly in Zimbabwe, is possible only after prolonged subjugation and final resolution of the entire nation, expressed through the ‘rainbow’ confederation of other parties. In the extreme, Iraq had to be ‘liberated’ from the clutch of the tyrannical Ba’athist Party only by foreign occupation.
The tendency in Nigeria is for any party in control of federal government to use its position to manipulate the electoral process to the total disadvantage of the others. Most of us will vividly recall how in August 1983 President Shehu Shagari’s government conducted national elections in which his party, the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), won a ‘landslide victory’ that clearly resulted from rigging.
On the conduct of the elections, late Dele Giwa wrote an article, The Comic Republic, published in Sunday Concord of September 25, 1983, saying, “To say the elections which took place in Nigeria were rigged is to be guilty of inadequacy of apt language. The truth is that the word has not yet been coined to give expression to what has happened to the democratic process in Nigeria.”
The main opposition party then, Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), was among the first to right away raise the alarm against the emerging one-party state. Apparently condemning FEDECO’s declaration that NPN had swept the senatorial polls in Oyo State, the UPN said that such a development had confirmed the “total subjugation of the country and Nigerians into a one-party dictatorship.”
Then Ray Ekpu wrote an article in his column titled The Bogey of One Party State published in the National Concord of September 4, 1983, saying, “If it comes as a result of democratic process, as I am sure is going to happen in 1987, I don’t see anybody going to vote anywhere other than the NPN in 1987…
“I do not believe that the founding fathers of the Second Republic intended that we should spend one billion Naira and go through the excruciating motion of campaigning and elections if they didn’t intend that we should have a choice…”
Those were the voices of yesterday. Today, twenty years later, the nation is again under another siege, by a conqueror that is as clever in the art of rigging as the NPN. The PDP government has conducted elections recently in which it won 28 out of the 36 states in the country; with another majority in both houses of the National Assembly and, of course, the presidency. The dexterity exhibited by the party in manipulating the elections and sentiments of Nigerians is just excellent. In some local governments percentage voter turnout were as high as 100%. In what looks like magic, INEC reported a voter turnout of 156.7% in presidential votes of Plateau State and only 76.7% in its gubernatorial. And INEC was happy to publish these figures on the Internet.
While many Nigerians are disappointed with the outcome of the elections and we are still yet to hear the last from the courts regarding 4-19 especially, attention is starting to focus on the next four years and the consequences it entails on the future democracy in the country. If propriety over the electoral body, the police and the treasury is what is required to perpetuate the power of a party committed to fraud, then the PDP is here to stay. It is a reality, sad though, which we cannot run away from.
As for rigging in the future, the PDP will not “give it up and thereby risk defeat at future elections,” to recall Nwabueze’s thesis, but “try to perfect its forms and techniques to a point where it becomes entrenched as part of the political culture.” So in 2007, we expect INEC to be more inefficient and more compliant to the wishes of the presidency than it is today. Sure, the police force then will be better equipped and ready to assist INEC and the PDP in perpetrating more bizarre electoral malpractices than thumb-printing ballot papers in public view, arresting opposition leaders or candidates and chasing away their agents at polling stations. The greatest casualty will be the treasury. Without the fear of any accountability, it will be looted completely to finance party resorts, campaigns and election rigging.
Consequences and Choice
That is why opposition voices, the media and civil rights groups rose to fight against the victory of the NPN in 1983. Today, also, there are voices, few though, with the conscience to speak the truth and warn the nation of the dangers ahead. In a recent interview, human rights activist and author, Arthur Nwankwo, was unequivocal in raising the alarm of the impending disaster, as reported in the cover story of Insider magazine this week:
“The declarations or selections announced of the 2003 polling exercise represent the fraudulent, illegal and unconstitutional attempt of General Obasanjo, using his carefully-chosen and entrenched agents in INEC with Abel Goubadia as chairman, as chief agent, and unfortunately with the military and police supervising, to foist on Nigerians his own brand of dictatorship via a one-party state.
“The choice before Nigerians is, therefore, quite clear: either to resist and reject the attempt in all its manifestations or acquiesce to their eternal regret. I believe Nigerians will choose on the side of democracy. Victory in this present battle will set our democracy on an irresistible course.”
I am sorry to state that amidst the preponderance of PDP’s conquest and the tremendous resources – including primordial sentiments – it is ready to invest in an elaborate conspiracy to consolidate its victory, voices like that of Nwankwo could hardly be heard. And if they are ever heard, they will stand rejected.
There are enough arsenals in the hands of the PDP to subvert the efforts and unity of the opposition conglomerate, Conference of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP). A good section of the press is already committed to brutalizing the image of the opposition as bad losers. The International Community was quick to disregard the reports of its observers and send its congratulations to Obasanjo through the voices of Bush, Blair and Chirac... How then could it support the voice of opposition? Perhaps, it is still subscribing to the belief that ‘despotism’ is what ‘the barbarians’ deserve, as expounded by John Stuart Mill in the 19th Century, or it knows fully that only despotism – not true democracy – could guarantee its economic interest in our country.
More disturbing for Nigerians, however, is the conspiracy of three factors that will enable Obasanjo to successfully forge ahead with his one party state. One is his ideological commitment to it. Right now he is ready to concede that only two or three parties are enough. But as the Insider has quoted from his reply to Arthur Nwankwo in 1989, he believes that “one party system is very much in consonance with a possible and logical outcome of our political development. And I still stand by that…” In another place he claims that “a well thought one-party system is “an effective panacea to the disintegrative tendencies in our political system.”
It is wishful to reason that by simply belonging to the same party, all ‘disintegrative tendencies’ of party members will dissolve or withdraw to a position of “integrative” alignment in the absence of any ideological force that will bind them to its grid other than the greed. The party becomes another heterogeneous body, as the nation it seeks to unite, expressing in it all differences regarding the national question and which, as a result of the internal friction will decelerate the system to standstill.
Two, the same ‘disintegrative tendencies’ that Obasanjo decried – regional and ethnic – are today the strongest pillars that support the hegemony of his party. In the last election, the Southwest supported him clearly not because it wants to belong to what its politicians call ‘the mainstream of Nigerian politics’ but because of ethnic considerations. Added to this, with active collaboration of the chairmen of the PDP and Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), sectarian sentiments have become the claws that enable the grip of the party on many Christians outside the Southwest. Obasanjo is publicly presented on national television as a CAN president. His critics must therefore be ready to stand the intolerance of these clerics who have occupied the heart of the president.
Three, with a total control over his party, and the party having majority in national and state assemblies, nothing, practically nothing, can stop the President from amending the constitution to limit the number of parties in the country and review his tenure beyond 2007.
Obasanjo’s defendants are saying that his experience in the last four years has changed his penchant for a one-party Nigeria. That is for the marines! His record as a president clearly points at his intolerant tendency. He portrayed a complete disregard for the legislature, the arm of government that is the main difference between military and democratic rule in Nigeria and which, together with the judiciary, are assigned the constitutional duty of checking the excesses of the executive. He first preferred to foist on it unfit leadership, people with a screw thumb of forged documents: Evans Enwerem and Salisu Buhari. When Okadigbo and Na’Abba took over, he sponsored many attempts to impeach them, succeeding in the former. His opposition for the legislature took him as far as committing forgery.
The fear now is that, in consonance with the disposition of one-party states, tyranny will be the lot of Nigerians in the next four years and beyond. The dominant party in such a state appropriates the sovereignty of the nation. Opposing the party or the people controlling it is interpreted as violating the sovereignty of the state. Violence becomes inevitable and treason becomes the common charge used to imprison or annihilate opposition. In the words of Danlami Nmodu, one-party system “fosters the rule of terror. In most instances, the tragic tales of police state and Gestapo take root and opposition members are stifled with unmitigated ruthlessness…” Back in 1983, Ray Ekpu said, “You can’t look back at history of one party state without terror, nor look forward without despair.”
It is the despair of the future that all patriotic citizens of this country must move quickly to avert. This is a nation of over 110million people, 70% of whom are living under poverty, over 60% illiterates who in the last four years have shown their readiness to serve as foot soldiers of regional and sectarian causes. It is a highly inflammable country…
Thus, Nmodu concluded his article, The One Party Tragedy, saying, “It needs be stated that the logic of contemporary development imposes a special duty on the people to gird their loins against any recrudescence of autocracy, tyranny and dictatorship which the one party system seeks to foist. The freedom to choose is inalienable. It should be jealously guarded to save the nation.”
Conclusion
However the signal that Nigerians will stand up against the one-party monster is as weak today as it was in 1983. In The Guardian of August 25, 1983, Pini Jason described his disappointment that in spite of the massive rigging that took place, Nigerians will allow a government to be formed on the basis of that election: “In all we have done so far, our public functionaries have shown that generally, there is no beauty and no sense of the good in our lives. That we are not determined climbers seeking to reach the Everest of excellence. Our shoddy performance surprisingly imbues us with contentment – that most debilitating state.”
We expressed a similar degree of pessimism last week in this column. Very few Nigerians will be ready “to gird their loins against… autocracy, tyranny and dictatorship.” As a way out Nigerians prefer to look on to the other party – the military – for rescue. Nowhere was this better expressed than in the bargain between Chief MKO Abiola and the service chiefs in his bid to actualise June 12.
Carried by the desire to maintain democracy today, the military option looks illogical to many. However, it once made sense, at least economically, as calculated by Ray Ekpu in 1983 when he spoke against the then emerging one-party scenario:
“If this is what we want, I suggest that the civilians cannot do it right, in which case they may as well allow the soldiers to do it. And since a small band of generals or majors needs no Houses of Assembly, we may even get some change back.”
Showing posts with label Nigerian 2003 Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nigerian 2003 Elections. Show all posts
Friday, May 21, 2010
Thursday, May 20, 2010
No Aisha, Leave Buhari Alone
No, Aisha. Leave Buhari Alone after 4-19
By Dr. Aliyu Tilde
In the aftermath 4-19 (read four nineteen, not four-one-nine!) came an article written by the leading female writer from the North, Aisha Umar Yusuf, in the Weekly Trust of May 10, 2003. It was a letter to General Muhammadu Buhari, advising him to “accept whatever the courts decide in the end.” Apparently unhopeful that anything tangible in his favour would come out from the court, Aisha went further to say, “if the court failed to overturn Obasanjo’s victory, as many fear it would, please do not repeat your call for mass action nor should you quit the political scene disgruntled. No, see it as a challenge to remain and constitute a credible opposition.”
Aisha was quick to support her advice with reason: “A decent, sincere, people-oriented opposition is what this country lacks since the beginning of this Fourth Republic. Wasn’t it amazing that when the Federal Government arm-twisted not so-independent INEC into refusing to register new parties, it was left to Gani Fawehinmi to single-handedly fight for the registration of new parties? Would this have been the case if we had a sincere and truly democratic opposition to fight the government?”
Then she went ahead to assure Buhari that he has “what it takes to lead the opposition...” by listing the personal attributes that makes him different from many Nigerians in opposition.
This essay is a reply to Aisha. In it, I have tried to question the possibility of a credible opposition to the style of governance in Nigeria and whether Buhari is the right person to burden with its leadership.
Advice and Criticism
Beyond the often-repeated point that there is no space for opposition in the presidential system of government, Buhari as opposition leader is not likely to accomplish anything beyond advice which in some form the establishment will prefer to denigrate as criticism. Nigerian leaders from local government councils up to the presidency regard such public comments as an irritation that should be ignored while “business” goes on as usual.
Otherwise, the public would have changed a lot during the Fourth Republic. But not even the ‘organized’ labour could do it. The NLC tried it a year ago and failed. Today, one cannot fail to see that the labour leader is competing with the Minister of Information, Professor Jerry Gana, in expressing his support for anything Obasanjo does. ASUU has been on strike for five months now. After Obasanjo has ignored the lecturers this long, even our leading columnists are today asking them to call off the strike and allow the government go ahead with the commercialisation of the universities. There is nothing you can do, such commentators are telling ASUU, literally.
Any comment from Buhari will be treated with the same evasion until when the public is made to believe that he is nothing better than a trouble maker, “a bad loser”, as Soyinka called him a week ago, or “a frustrated person”, as INEC Chairman described him after 4-19.
If Obasanjo had a listening ear, he would have achieved a lot beyond licensing GSM, the only thing Bola Ajibola could recently count in his defence of the President (Punch, May 11, 2003). He would have selected a fine cabinet from the vibrant and honest, not from the dead stock of the old brigade or their boys. He wouldn’t have crippled the legislature through sponsoring impeachments and circulating ‘Ghana must go’. He would have accomplished projects beyond plagiarising the ones executed by state governments, only to later on confess that he did not actually execute the projects. He would have used the ICPC to check the widespread corruption in his government, from what transpired in the privatisation of parastatals to the billions that disappeared in NNPC or in roads rehabilitation that never took place. His son, Gbenga, would not be sitting on the notorious “First Son” seat that Ibrahim Abacha once occupied.
On the above and many others, Nigerians have written and spoken a lot in the past four years. But nothing has changed. Obasanjo remains stark deaf and dumb. And there is the preponderant likelihood that, with the demystification of the electorate during the past election, mal-administration under Obasanjo will only worsen in the next four years. He will continue to ignore criticisms because he believes, as he said last week before a group called Ohaneze-Ndigbo Youth Forum, criticisms are borne out of ignorance that should be ignored, or mischief that should countered, or quest for wealth and popularity.
Among which of the three groups will Obasanjo and his government categorize ‘Buhari, the critic’? Certainly in the second because he can neither accuse Buhari of ignorance of what is government, nor of seeking material gain or popularity. Criticism, in my view, should rather be left to people like us, who are “ignorant”, or “mischievous”, or “material and popularity” seekers. Buhari should not compete with us in our domain.
Followers and Resources
‘Buhari, the opposition leader’ must also contend with the orientation of many Nigerian politicians in the “Sahara of opposition” and the lack of resources required to keep it alive. It is an opinion I have always expressed that, generally, Nigerian civilians have proved themselves to be like a herd of sheep. I am sorry if this generalization sounds a bit harsh. But reason with me, Aisha. Unlike the military who work with orders, civilians work with commandments, which, like the Ten Commandments, they selectively obey. For example Buhari’s “protect your votes” advice was not faithfully complied with in many areas.
Worst of all, if a wolf would decide to attack the shepherd, the sheep would run away or at best remain aloof. We have seen it in Awolowo’s case in the 1960s. We have also seen it in the case of Abiola when most of his elite supporters, including his running mate, rushed to take ministerial positions in the military government that jailed him after denying him his mandate.
That is why Nigerians always look helpless before the might of their government. They look on to the military to save them. All the politicians at the receiving end of the electoral malpractice in 1965 and 1983 looked on to the military, though today they are against its return because 4-19 serves the parochial goals of their ethno-chauvinism. Right now the begrudged electorate are leaving matters to God, as did many columnists and laureates in the aftermath of August 6, 1983.
So the matrix of opposition – the people – is not ideologically knit enough to vault away injustice or prevent its circulation in Nigeria. I doubt if Buhari as an opposition leader will make any difference in this case.
We do not need to elaborate on the lack of resources. The average Nigerian politician would like to be paid for attending every meeting or carrying out any assignment. This is partly as a result of an ideologically neutral state of our politics since the late eighties, partly due the involvement of a late retired general, and partly due to government funding of parties during the SDP/NRC era. Today, the average politician is bereft of ideas; his political ingenuity is reserved for generating money. Buhari has never laid any claim to the wealth that can trigger this kind of ingenuity. Also, the recent history of some newly formed parties enjoying the support of billionaire ex-generals has clearly shown that financing politics in Nigeria is beyond what even the most generous hand in the country can afford.
Party
Finally, let us briefly discuss the framework. A platform is needed for any organized political opposition, which in politics of a secular country like ours is usually provided by the party or organization one belongs to.
After 4-19, the highest office Buhari will occupy in the ANPP is membership of its Board of Trustees, under the leadership of Augustus Aikhomu. He cannot speak on behalf of the party because he is not Don Etiebet, its Chairman.
More importantly, the ANPP as a party has its fundamental shortcomings. I doubt if its founders in 1998 stood on a higher moral ground than those of the PDP. During the Fourth Republic, its governors scored the same F-grade in terms of accountability and achievements as those of PDP.
There is little wonder also if some of them were quick in distancing themselves from him after they have ‘won’ their seats for the second time. They quickly went to Aso Rock to pay homage to Obasanjo and enjoy his victory cake even before their party could decide on what to do with the 419 it suffered from during the last elections. How could Buhari and these characters be partners in opposition? It would have been different if he were the President because of the authority that his office would command. But then he wouldn’t need to be an opposition leader!
These are some reasons why I do not share your idea that Buhari should lead any opposition in the country. But I may not be absolutely right.
“The North” Again?
In case the advice on leading an opposition against the government is not accepted by Buhari, or in addition to it, Aisha had the following suggestion: “If you lose your 4-19 contest and you still return home to make yourself useful before 2007, believe me you have enough clout to advise and be listened to. You might even set up a North Development (Special) Trust Fund (NDTF) and have all governors contributing. Knowing that you can always be trusted with our Naira and kobo you are the natural choice to head the NDTF.
“A meaningful quarterly contribution to the fund by all governors (and local government chairmen),” she added, “could provide enough money to address the key concerns of Northern Nigeria. We decry the rot in the education sector, in health services, in provision of social amenities, as well as the neglect of our economic mainstay – agriculture. If the NDTF can address all this through judicious use of the money contributed, you dear General would have served Nigeria in the best possible way. And who knows, may be by 2007 you will not need to campaign at all; your sterling record at the NDTF, added to all the others could grant you a smooth sail to the Presidency.”
My first reaction to this suggestion is that it has shortened the vision of Buhari and confined his role to the North. In fact, the region – in political terms – actually does not exist today, as it did before 1966, with abundant respect to the efforts made by various bodies like the ACF to sustain its concept. I doubt very much if Buhari has joined politics to save the North alone, but the nation as a whole. I have never heard him speak of the North exclusive of other parts of Nigeria. He thinks, like how most soldiers do, in the context of post-civil war Nigeria. So I doubt if, after losing the 4-19 ‘war’, the General would, in the regional context, go beyond membership of Board of Trustees of the ACF, in congregation of past heads of states from the region.
More importantly, however, is the absence of political and constitutional allowance that will enable him play the suggested NDTF role. I do not know of any Northern governor at present who will surrender a dime to Buhari to use in solving any problem in the region. They are a bunch that is even opposed to ACF, believing that the body was formed to usurp political leadership of the region from them. Most Northern governors are yet to redeem N15m pledge they made over two years ago on School of Basic and Remedial Studies, Funtua – something they initiated and agreed upon in one of their meetings – when on the average each of them receives a billion monthly from the federation account!
Let us remember that for the past four years, each of the 19 Northern governors has been receiving more than the annual budget of Northern Nigeria, which was only £29million in 1963 – “a pound per head”, as the slogan then was.
The geographical North is still a region whose leadership is deeply entrenched in retrogression, reaction and corruption of unprecedented dimension. All the ills of underdevelopment are here. To compound the matter, an elaborate syndicate of inept political elite have decided to back only candidates of questionable origins, backgrounds and aptitude for leadership roles. Once in office, like their counterparts in other regions, they portray their unassailable brilliance and insatiable appetite for self-aggrandizement, not for service to the people they so much despise and who are in dire need of basic things like water, health care and primary education.
Therefore, the governors can only tolerate Buhari as long as he lives quietly among their masses, not when he is ready to break their monopoly over the treasury, or lead them to the path of probity. They would rather make do with chaps who will help them launder their stolen billions in purchasing mansions and hotels overseas, or run their petroleum smuggling business to Niger, or worst of all, help them commit all sorts of electoral malpractices.
Finally, as for Buhari Presidency come 2007, his admirers will not then be at a better state of hope than they are now. After all, who believes that there will be a vacancy in Aso Rock then? And if there will be any, it will certainly not be for the Northerner. The Igbo, as Obasanjo has started hinting, will then justifiably be entitled to it. I concur, and Atiku must be told this, right now.
Whatever is the situation by 2007, we are bound to witness worse electoral malpractice then. I doubt if a one-party dominated state would not emerge then in the country, with PDP sweeping everywhere, scoring 99.99% with a 99% turnout, like 4-19, like that of Saddam Hussein.
Conclusion
So, Aisha, let us leave Buhari alone to decide how he intends to spend his post 4-19 days. If, on the one hand, he believes that, in spite of the fear that the wolf may attack the shepherd, the sheep should not be left alone and, therefore, wishes to spend the days in opposition together with younger generations, then it will be commendable, though daunting as we have seen above. If, on the other, he decides to go back to his retirement, I believe he has done a enough even within the last one year in politics to warrant a rest.
The next four years will definitely be rough and challenging, as is the common practice of any government that has inherited itself by subverting the will of the people in a developing country like ours. Coercion becomes its only source of legitimacy. The ball of opposition is in the court of public commentators like you. A pen that remains consistent in supporting the truth and collective good is mightier than the sharpest sword that any civilian dictator could afford in the next four years. And the greatest struggle, we are told long ago, is to speak the truth in the face of injustice.
By Dr. Aliyu Tilde
In the aftermath 4-19 (read four nineteen, not four-one-nine!) came an article written by the leading female writer from the North, Aisha Umar Yusuf, in the Weekly Trust of May 10, 2003. It was a letter to General Muhammadu Buhari, advising him to “accept whatever the courts decide in the end.” Apparently unhopeful that anything tangible in his favour would come out from the court, Aisha went further to say, “if the court failed to overturn Obasanjo’s victory, as many fear it would, please do not repeat your call for mass action nor should you quit the political scene disgruntled. No, see it as a challenge to remain and constitute a credible opposition.”
Aisha was quick to support her advice with reason: “A decent, sincere, people-oriented opposition is what this country lacks since the beginning of this Fourth Republic. Wasn’t it amazing that when the Federal Government arm-twisted not so-independent INEC into refusing to register new parties, it was left to Gani Fawehinmi to single-handedly fight for the registration of new parties? Would this have been the case if we had a sincere and truly democratic opposition to fight the government?”
Then she went ahead to assure Buhari that he has “what it takes to lead the opposition...” by listing the personal attributes that makes him different from many Nigerians in opposition.
This essay is a reply to Aisha. In it, I have tried to question the possibility of a credible opposition to the style of governance in Nigeria and whether Buhari is the right person to burden with its leadership.
Advice and Criticism
Beyond the often-repeated point that there is no space for opposition in the presidential system of government, Buhari as opposition leader is not likely to accomplish anything beyond advice which in some form the establishment will prefer to denigrate as criticism. Nigerian leaders from local government councils up to the presidency regard such public comments as an irritation that should be ignored while “business” goes on as usual.
Otherwise, the public would have changed a lot during the Fourth Republic. But not even the ‘organized’ labour could do it. The NLC tried it a year ago and failed. Today, one cannot fail to see that the labour leader is competing with the Minister of Information, Professor Jerry Gana, in expressing his support for anything Obasanjo does. ASUU has been on strike for five months now. After Obasanjo has ignored the lecturers this long, even our leading columnists are today asking them to call off the strike and allow the government go ahead with the commercialisation of the universities. There is nothing you can do, such commentators are telling ASUU, literally.
Any comment from Buhari will be treated with the same evasion until when the public is made to believe that he is nothing better than a trouble maker, “a bad loser”, as Soyinka called him a week ago, or “a frustrated person”, as INEC Chairman described him after 4-19.
If Obasanjo had a listening ear, he would have achieved a lot beyond licensing GSM, the only thing Bola Ajibola could recently count in his defence of the President (Punch, May 11, 2003). He would have selected a fine cabinet from the vibrant and honest, not from the dead stock of the old brigade or their boys. He wouldn’t have crippled the legislature through sponsoring impeachments and circulating ‘Ghana must go’. He would have accomplished projects beyond plagiarising the ones executed by state governments, only to later on confess that he did not actually execute the projects. He would have used the ICPC to check the widespread corruption in his government, from what transpired in the privatisation of parastatals to the billions that disappeared in NNPC or in roads rehabilitation that never took place. His son, Gbenga, would not be sitting on the notorious “First Son” seat that Ibrahim Abacha once occupied.
On the above and many others, Nigerians have written and spoken a lot in the past four years. But nothing has changed. Obasanjo remains stark deaf and dumb. And there is the preponderant likelihood that, with the demystification of the electorate during the past election, mal-administration under Obasanjo will only worsen in the next four years. He will continue to ignore criticisms because he believes, as he said last week before a group called Ohaneze-Ndigbo Youth Forum, criticisms are borne out of ignorance that should be ignored, or mischief that should countered, or quest for wealth and popularity.
Among which of the three groups will Obasanjo and his government categorize ‘Buhari, the critic’? Certainly in the second because he can neither accuse Buhari of ignorance of what is government, nor of seeking material gain or popularity. Criticism, in my view, should rather be left to people like us, who are “ignorant”, or “mischievous”, or “material and popularity” seekers. Buhari should not compete with us in our domain.
Followers and Resources
‘Buhari, the opposition leader’ must also contend with the orientation of many Nigerian politicians in the “Sahara of opposition” and the lack of resources required to keep it alive. It is an opinion I have always expressed that, generally, Nigerian civilians have proved themselves to be like a herd of sheep. I am sorry if this generalization sounds a bit harsh. But reason with me, Aisha. Unlike the military who work with orders, civilians work with commandments, which, like the Ten Commandments, they selectively obey. For example Buhari’s “protect your votes” advice was not faithfully complied with in many areas.
Worst of all, if a wolf would decide to attack the shepherd, the sheep would run away or at best remain aloof. We have seen it in Awolowo’s case in the 1960s. We have also seen it in the case of Abiola when most of his elite supporters, including his running mate, rushed to take ministerial positions in the military government that jailed him after denying him his mandate.
That is why Nigerians always look helpless before the might of their government. They look on to the military to save them. All the politicians at the receiving end of the electoral malpractice in 1965 and 1983 looked on to the military, though today they are against its return because 4-19 serves the parochial goals of their ethno-chauvinism. Right now the begrudged electorate are leaving matters to God, as did many columnists and laureates in the aftermath of August 6, 1983.
So the matrix of opposition – the people – is not ideologically knit enough to vault away injustice or prevent its circulation in Nigeria. I doubt if Buhari as an opposition leader will make any difference in this case.
We do not need to elaborate on the lack of resources. The average Nigerian politician would like to be paid for attending every meeting or carrying out any assignment. This is partly as a result of an ideologically neutral state of our politics since the late eighties, partly due the involvement of a late retired general, and partly due to government funding of parties during the SDP/NRC era. Today, the average politician is bereft of ideas; his political ingenuity is reserved for generating money. Buhari has never laid any claim to the wealth that can trigger this kind of ingenuity. Also, the recent history of some newly formed parties enjoying the support of billionaire ex-generals has clearly shown that financing politics in Nigeria is beyond what even the most generous hand in the country can afford.
Party
Finally, let us briefly discuss the framework. A platform is needed for any organized political opposition, which in politics of a secular country like ours is usually provided by the party or organization one belongs to.
After 4-19, the highest office Buhari will occupy in the ANPP is membership of its Board of Trustees, under the leadership of Augustus Aikhomu. He cannot speak on behalf of the party because he is not Don Etiebet, its Chairman.
More importantly, the ANPP as a party has its fundamental shortcomings. I doubt if its founders in 1998 stood on a higher moral ground than those of the PDP. During the Fourth Republic, its governors scored the same F-grade in terms of accountability and achievements as those of PDP.
There is little wonder also if some of them were quick in distancing themselves from him after they have ‘won’ their seats for the second time. They quickly went to Aso Rock to pay homage to Obasanjo and enjoy his victory cake even before their party could decide on what to do with the 419 it suffered from during the last elections. How could Buhari and these characters be partners in opposition? It would have been different if he were the President because of the authority that his office would command. But then he wouldn’t need to be an opposition leader!
These are some reasons why I do not share your idea that Buhari should lead any opposition in the country. But I may not be absolutely right.
“The North” Again?
In case the advice on leading an opposition against the government is not accepted by Buhari, or in addition to it, Aisha had the following suggestion: “If you lose your 4-19 contest and you still return home to make yourself useful before 2007, believe me you have enough clout to advise and be listened to. You might even set up a North Development (Special) Trust Fund (NDTF) and have all governors contributing. Knowing that you can always be trusted with our Naira and kobo you are the natural choice to head the NDTF.
“A meaningful quarterly contribution to the fund by all governors (and local government chairmen),” she added, “could provide enough money to address the key concerns of Northern Nigeria. We decry the rot in the education sector, in health services, in provision of social amenities, as well as the neglect of our economic mainstay – agriculture. If the NDTF can address all this through judicious use of the money contributed, you dear General would have served Nigeria in the best possible way. And who knows, may be by 2007 you will not need to campaign at all; your sterling record at the NDTF, added to all the others could grant you a smooth sail to the Presidency.”
My first reaction to this suggestion is that it has shortened the vision of Buhari and confined his role to the North. In fact, the region – in political terms – actually does not exist today, as it did before 1966, with abundant respect to the efforts made by various bodies like the ACF to sustain its concept. I doubt very much if Buhari has joined politics to save the North alone, but the nation as a whole. I have never heard him speak of the North exclusive of other parts of Nigeria. He thinks, like how most soldiers do, in the context of post-civil war Nigeria. So I doubt if, after losing the 4-19 ‘war’, the General would, in the regional context, go beyond membership of Board of Trustees of the ACF, in congregation of past heads of states from the region.
More importantly, however, is the absence of political and constitutional allowance that will enable him play the suggested NDTF role. I do not know of any Northern governor at present who will surrender a dime to Buhari to use in solving any problem in the region. They are a bunch that is even opposed to ACF, believing that the body was formed to usurp political leadership of the region from them. Most Northern governors are yet to redeem N15m pledge they made over two years ago on School of Basic and Remedial Studies, Funtua – something they initiated and agreed upon in one of their meetings – when on the average each of them receives a billion monthly from the federation account!
Let us remember that for the past four years, each of the 19 Northern governors has been receiving more than the annual budget of Northern Nigeria, which was only £29million in 1963 – “a pound per head”, as the slogan then was.
The geographical North is still a region whose leadership is deeply entrenched in retrogression, reaction and corruption of unprecedented dimension. All the ills of underdevelopment are here. To compound the matter, an elaborate syndicate of inept political elite have decided to back only candidates of questionable origins, backgrounds and aptitude for leadership roles. Once in office, like their counterparts in other regions, they portray their unassailable brilliance and insatiable appetite for self-aggrandizement, not for service to the people they so much despise and who are in dire need of basic things like water, health care and primary education.
Therefore, the governors can only tolerate Buhari as long as he lives quietly among their masses, not when he is ready to break their monopoly over the treasury, or lead them to the path of probity. They would rather make do with chaps who will help them launder their stolen billions in purchasing mansions and hotels overseas, or run their petroleum smuggling business to Niger, or worst of all, help them commit all sorts of electoral malpractices.
Finally, as for Buhari Presidency come 2007, his admirers will not then be at a better state of hope than they are now. After all, who believes that there will be a vacancy in Aso Rock then? And if there will be any, it will certainly not be for the Northerner. The Igbo, as Obasanjo has started hinting, will then justifiably be entitled to it. I concur, and Atiku must be told this, right now.
Whatever is the situation by 2007, we are bound to witness worse electoral malpractice then. I doubt if a one-party dominated state would not emerge then in the country, with PDP sweeping everywhere, scoring 99.99% with a 99% turnout, like 4-19, like that of Saddam Hussein.
Conclusion
So, Aisha, let us leave Buhari alone to decide how he intends to spend his post 4-19 days. If, on the one hand, he believes that, in spite of the fear that the wolf may attack the shepherd, the sheep should not be left alone and, therefore, wishes to spend the days in opposition together with younger generations, then it will be commendable, though daunting as we have seen above. If, on the other, he decides to go back to his retirement, I believe he has done a enough even within the last one year in politics to warrant a rest.
The next four years will definitely be rough and challenging, as is the common practice of any government that has inherited itself by subverting the will of the people in a developing country like ours. Coercion becomes its only source of legitimacy. The ball of opposition is in the court of public commentators like you. A pen that remains consistent in supporting the truth and collective good is mightier than the sharpest sword that any civilian dictator could afford in the next four years. And the greatest struggle, we are told long ago, is to speak the truth in the face of injustice.
Pleasant Surprise
Pleasant Surprise
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
It is four weeks now since we discussed predictions about the presidential primaries of our parties [see Predicting the Primaries ]. We focussed most of our attention on the two biggest ones, i.e. the mighty and incumbent PDP and its major challenger, the ANPP. The primaries are now history. For regular readers of this increasingly becoming less regular page, the outcome did not come as a surprise because we have earlier predicted that Obasanjo and Buhari will be the winners. And they won, the way we predicted through the instruments mentioned. Thanks be to God. For some who are less regular than the column or who do not believe in what its writer says, however, the outcome was surprising. In spite of what we said, which were stark realities as we knew them, such people believed that the sins of Obasanjo were too great to be rewarded with victory while the weakness of Buhari was too much to allow him success. Well, opinions may differ, expectations may vary, as they both did, but reality remains the same. One of those who got it wrong was the seasoned journalist and colleague, Mohammed Haruna, who writes in Daily Trust. Last Wednesday he humbly confessed, saying: “For me personally, events during the period have gone quite contrary to my expectations. For one, I did not expect President Obasanjo to win the PDP presidential ticket for the second term just like I did not expect Major General Muhammadu Buhari to win the ANPP ticket.”
Obasanjo
Haruna gave his reasons in each case. As for Obasanjo, the writer said, he clearly lacks the support of people from all geopolitical zones, except the Southwest. So it was natural to expect that if the elections were free and fair, there was no way Obasanjo would have won. It is this belief also, I think, that made the Babangida camp to draft Chief Alex Ekwueme into the race, just a month before the convention. The septuagenarian travelled to Minna and declared, there, his intention to contest based largely on the hope that with the skills of Maradona he will definitely score more goals than Obasanjo. Computations were done assuring Ekwueme that the ocean was not that much deep to drown him. Promises were accordingly made. Maradona kept his words by assisting Ekwueme financially, some media reports said to the tune of N250m, and getting majority of the governors to support him. They honestly gave him their words. With each of them carrying the certificate of his victory at gubernatorial primaries in his briefcase, they felt they could rescind the various promises which they earlier made to Obasanjo without attracting any repercussion. They were wrong.
It was a bad deal because all the three parties have miscalculated. If Ekwueme had read the two articles in this column and reasoned well, he would have withdrawn from the race even on the last day. He would read where we said that Babangida’s power is limited to his tenure and that of Abdulsalami, so far. We did not mean to denigrate him then. It is a fact. Obasanjo has been planning for the day since two years ago. Besides, he has the party machinery at his disposal and one-third of the votes ahead of any contestant, ab initio. How could someone just be brought in a month to the contest and win?
Well, it is now clear, as we predicted, that Obasanjo won the ticket because he was able to compel the governors to support him, after their initial announcement that they would not. Later, after each was shown his dossier, as we reliably learnt, they caved in. With thirteen of them under investigation by the Anticorruption Tribunal, the PDP governors could not help delivering their states to Mr. President. Atiku, who was part of the original deal with Babangida, had to strive hard to save his position as Obasanjo’s briefcase for the next four years. Money was later distributed to delegates, far less than the N1million ‘change’ we said that the president was rich enough to give each of them. He was mean. According to media reports he gave each of them only N110,000.00 while Ekwueme gave N200,000.00.
Then the voting took place and Ekwueme had to face the harsh reality that this column said was awaiting people like him. It was not a defeat alone, but barometer that measured the present political weakness of people who drafted the old man into the race. We were so sure of Ekwueme’s defeat that at a point, as mentioned in the second article on the predictions, we gave credit to the rumour that the contest was an arrangement between Babangida, Obasanjo and Ekwueme himself. But watching the television that day proved the contrary. The bitterness on Ekwueme’s face did vindicate him from such allegation. To expect victory then was actually a sheer miscalculation of the septuagenarian.
The PDP and its primaries will remain forever one of our best examples of the extreme use of incumbency by a corrupt regime to perpetuate its grip on power. Those who underestimated it now know the level of its efficacy.
Buhari
Two days later, from the ANPP another shocker came to those who were ever ready to dismiss the political strength of Muhammadu Buhari. On Buhari, Haruna had this to say: “Indeed, I had rated Buhari’s chances lower than Obasanjo’s for the obvious reasons that (1) he did not have the incumbency factor behind him, (2) seasoned civilian leaders of ANPP like Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, the Marafan Sokoto, were expressing serious objections to the domination of our politics by retired generals, (3) the general seemed incapable of living down his contempt for politics and politicians and (4) his image – as opposed to his substance – as an Islamic fundamentalist was unlikely to endear him to the non-Muslim politicians of the party.”
It is really surprising that Haruna would qualify the above reasons as “obvious” or even allow them to shape his expectations of the ANPP primaries. But he was not alone. The presidency in fact never for once thought that Buhari would win the ticket. Atiku and his associates, for example, used to laugh whenever Buhari’s name featured in their private discussions. This is no allegation, because Atiku could not even hide it in public. The BBC Hausa Service once asked him about the chances of Buhari, just about a month after the latter joined politics. Atiku laughed lightly before giving an answer. Around the same time, he publicly dismissed Buhari, saying, “He should know that politics is not for the novice.” As God would have it, and as we always emphasized, He alone has power over things. I doubt very much if Atiku and his men are laughing now. Even the ANPP leadership did not expect Buhari to win. In a recent interview with Musa Umar Kazaure, Bafarawa described Buhari’s victory as “God ordained.”
Even on empirical grounds, because we are human, many times we allow our judgements to be obscured by non-objective considerations. We sometimes prefer to close our eyes and declare that it is dark when it is broad daylight. In the end, such blindness does not prevent the truth from overwhelming us. I will forgive Atiku for this misjudgement because power breeds illusion, to the extent that, as Imam Shafi’i once put it, “the ruler would feel that the stars are located (not in heavens, but) beneath his feet.”
However, for the same mistake, I will not forgive my brother, Haruna. He is not in power and he lives in public. I wonder how he failed to see the scenario that unfolded in the victory of Buhari at the primaries months before it happened. Otherwise, look at his reasons: one, who among the contestants needed incumbency to win the ANPP ticket? None of the contestant was an incumbent. So incumbency was irrelevant, though the nation now knows that the Presidency was behind many of the candidates and the boycott they staged on the convention ground. Two, what has the view of Shinkafi and other seasoned politicians got to do with the primaries where over 80% of the delegates might have never read Shinkafi’s interviews. Surprisingly, it was the honourable Shinkafi that gracefully withdrew to improve the chances of Buhari.
Three, who is not contemptuous of politics and politicians in Nigeria with their habit of backstabbing, intrigues, dishonesty, and so on? The politicians are the most contemptuous of their conduct than newcomers like Buhari? Four, I thought Haruna was able to know that the ‘Islamic fundamentalism’ in Buhari is largely the fiction of the southern press. Up here in the North, it is difficult to come across writers who emphasize this point. Surprisingly, only Haruna does so consistently. However, as it was proved during the ANPP presidential primary, religion had no effect at all on the delegates.
Skeptics of Buhari’s victory were carried by another impression that is largely wrong. That he was not in the good books of the power brokers in the ANPP can hardly be doubted. In his last article, Haruna was thus right when he said, “Buhari emerged as ANPP candidate in spite of the party’s leadership, which probably had other plans.” But I strongly object to the list of Emirs that he purported General Buhari was not possibly in their good books. For the sensitivity of the matter and the implication it might have on the image of such Emirs among their wards, I wished Haruna had stuck to the “certain” and avoided the “possible.”
I am happy that he vindicated me in what was the bone of contention between the two of us some months ago when he said, “Certainly, he (Buhari) was not in the good books of the Emir of Gwandu, Alhaji Mustapha Jokolo…” But I think he was wrong on where the loyalty of the Emirs of Kano, Ilorin and the Etsu of Nupe lied. At no time, to my knowledge, has the three, and even Emir of Zaria, showed any resentment to Buhari. The first three I know warmly received Buhari in their palaces during his nationwide tours last year and I have never heard Buhari or any of his associates mentioning anything bad about them regarding his candidature. In The Buhari Organization, these Emirs are held in high esteem.
At any rate, the results proved the contrary. And I must congratulate Haruna for identifying the exact reason why Buhari won – grassroots support. I must go a bit further to say that few people even in the ANPP believed him when he emphasized his preference for grassroots politics over politics at the beginning. I remember very well where he first made this point: at the party secretariat in April when he paid his first visit. Few people there took him seriously given the recent history of our politics.
In the history of Nigerian politics, few presidential candidates went as far as Buhari did to prove the relevance of the masses. The tradition has been to concentrate on politicking within the party, forging alliances and securing positions such that when the primaries come the aspirants have a clear advantage over others. It was only after the aspirant has won the ticket that he goes out to face the public at rallies and other avenues. With the guide of God, Buhari reversed that tradition. He knew most of the politicians would be sceptical about his success in a game which they mastered its rules. So he left them and went down to their constituencies, meeting people in the street and visiting party and community leaders there, as if he was already a presidential candidate. The masses accepted him and thronged the routes he followed and the palaces he visited. This is what in his organization is called ‘heating the pot from the bottom.’
Within a short time, the perception of his colleagues in the ANPP began to change. Some supported him because they saw in him the potential that will bring success to the party at various levels. Others feared opposing him at the convention will certainly create difficulties for them in their constituencies. In the end, they all agreed that he was the aspirant who would give the party the best hope for winning the forthcoming elections. This strategy is a credit we think should be acknowledged and commended by all democrats. What else could be a victory for democracy other than for the people to see their champion emerge a winner? For the first time, the masses have forced the political class into accepting their choice. If the party will hold on to this during the forthcoming elections it will certainly record more success than it did in 1999.
It was clear even to other aspirants in the ANPP that none of them was a match to Buhari. One wonders really, if most of them were not trapped in the myth of promises similar to the ones given to Alex Ekwueme. Did Haruna expect people like Rochas and Nwodo to defeat Buhari? Kai, Kai. I know a lot of legwork was done to sell Nwodo to the North – the ACF, the Emirs and influential politicians in the region – by the camp that believes an Igbo candidate is the best for the North. But that effort was doomed because it was not based on the proper assessment of the political temperament of the region. Rochas added money to the equation. Members of the party from officials to delegates accepted his offer but failed to deliver their promise. As such, none of the delegates walked out along with the five aspirants who boycotted the convention.
As we said earlier, the error arose from the thought that money and intrigue are still the most important factors in politics of primary elections in Nigeria. Now another is added: massive grassroots support.
Reconciliation
I am glad that part of the dividends of Buhari’s victory in the primaries is the ongoing reconciliation effort with Babangida. I read with interest the statement signed by Babangida’s Special Assistant, Alhaji Ibrahim Ismail, as reported in the Daily Trust of 22 January 2003 and the promise of an exclusive interview that Babangida himself gave the newspaper.
I support the reconciliation and salute this level of commitment, especially when it was coming from a person that is notoriously known to avoid committing himself on matters of politics. He made a good judgement, I believe, going by the political realities of the last three weeks. It is never late.
Conclusion
After the primaries, the southern press has continued in a more vigorous manner to underrate the chances of Buhari. They are doing for the general elections the same thing they did for the primary, in addition to their campaign of calumny. Well, let them continue. They are in for another surprise. However, it will, God willing, be a pleasant one to all Nigerians who want governance to be guided by a good measure of transparency, dedication and fairness to all.
I agree with my brother Mohammed Haruna that Nigerians will be faced with the hardest election choices since independence because, except in their military background, Buhari and Obasanjo, represents diametrically different characters, institutions, cultures, worldviews, and so on. Another colleague correctly called it a ‘brutal divide.’ Nevertheless, the country should be proud that both are Nigerians. This signifies the richness in our composition. The choice definitely allows little or no room at all for manoeuvre. But when the time comes, I believe it will be easy for us to decide which direction to take. God willing, it will be a fulfilment of an expectation for most of us, and a pleasant surprise to many. Together, we will join hands in building a better Nigeria.
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
It is four weeks now since we discussed predictions about the presidential primaries of our parties [see Predicting the Primaries ]. We focussed most of our attention on the two biggest ones, i.e. the mighty and incumbent PDP and its major challenger, the ANPP. The primaries are now history. For regular readers of this increasingly becoming less regular page, the outcome did not come as a surprise because we have earlier predicted that Obasanjo and Buhari will be the winners. And they won, the way we predicted through the instruments mentioned. Thanks be to God. For some who are less regular than the column or who do not believe in what its writer says, however, the outcome was surprising. In spite of what we said, which were stark realities as we knew them, such people believed that the sins of Obasanjo were too great to be rewarded with victory while the weakness of Buhari was too much to allow him success. Well, opinions may differ, expectations may vary, as they both did, but reality remains the same. One of those who got it wrong was the seasoned journalist and colleague, Mohammed Haruna, who writes in Daily Trust. Last Wednesday he humbly confessed, saying: “For me personally, events during the period have gone quite contrary to my expectations. For one, I did not expect President Obasanjo to win the PDP presidential ticket for the second term just like I did not expect Major General Muhammadu Buhari to win the ANPP ticket.”
Obasanjo
Haruna gave his reasons in each case. As for Obasanjo, the writer said, he clearly lacks the support of people from all geopolitical zones, except the Southwest. So it was natural to expect that if the elections were free and fair, there was no way Obasanjo would have won. It is this belief also, I think, that made the Babangida camp to draft Chief Alex Ekwueme into the race, just a month before the convention. The septuagenarian travelled to Minna and declared, there, his intention to contest based largely on the hope that with the skills of Maradona he will definitely score more goals than Obasanjo. Computations were done assuring Ekwueme that the ocean was not that much deep to drown him. Promises were accordingly made. Maradona kept his words by assisting Ekwueme financially, some media reports said to the tune of N250m, and getting majority of the governors to support him. They honestly gave him their words. With each of them carrying the certificate of his victory at gubernatorial primaries in his briefcase, they felt they could rescind the various promises which they earlier made to Obasanjo without attracting any repercussion. They were wrong.
It was a bad deal because all the three parties have miscalculated. If Ekwueme had read the two articles in this column and reasoned well, he would have withdrawn from the race even on the last day. He would read where we said that Babangida’s power is limited to his tenure and that of Abdulsalami, so far. We did not mean to denigrate him then. It is a fact. Obasanjo has been planning for the day since two years ago. Besides, he has the party machinery at his disposal and one-third of the votes ahead of any contestant, ab initio. How could someone just be brought in a month to the contest and win?
Well, it is now clear, as we predicted, that Obasanjo won the ticket because he was able to compel the governors to support him, after their initial announcement that they would not. Later, after each was shown his dossier, as we reliably learnt, they caved in. With thirteen of them under investigation by the Anticorruption Tribunal, the PDP governors could not help delivering their states to Mr. President. Atiku, who was part of the original deal with Babangida, had to strive hard to save his position as Obasanjo’s briefcase for the next four years. Money was later distributed to delegates, far less than the N1million ‘change’ we said that the president was rich enough to give each of them. He was mean. According to media reports he gave each of them only N110,000.00 while Ekwueme gave N200,000.00.
Then the voting took place and Ekwueme had to face the harsh reality that this column said was awaiting people like him. It was not a defeat alone, but barometer that measured the present political weakness of people who drafted the old man into the race. We were so sure of Ekwueme’s defeat that at a point, as mentioned in the second article on the predictions, we gave credit to the rumour that the contest was an arrangement between Babangida, Obasanjo and Ekwueme himself. But watching the television that day proved the contrary. The bitterness on Ekwueme’s face did vindicate him from such allegation. To expect victory then was actually a sheer miscalculation of the septuagenarian.
The PDP and its primaries will remain forever one of our best examples of the extreme use of incumbency by a corrupt regime to perpetuate its grip on power. Those who underestimated it now know the level of its efficacy.
Buhari
Two days later, from the ANPP another shocker came to those who were ever ready to dismiss the political strength of Muhammadu Buhari. On Buhari, Haruna had this to say: “Indeed, I had rated Buhari’s chances lower than Obasanjo’s for the obvious reasons that (1) he did not have the incumbency factor behind him, (2) seasoned civilian leaders of ANPP like Alhaji Umaru Shinkafi, the Marafan Sokoto, were expressing serious objections to the domination of our politics by retired generals, (3) the general seemed incapable of living down his contempt for politics and politicians and (4) his image – as opposed to his substance – as an Islamic fundamentalist was unlikely to endear him to the non-Muslim politicians of the party.”
It is really surprising that Haruna would qualify the above reasons as “obvious” or even allow them to shape his expectations of the ANPP primaries. But he was not alone. The presidency in fact never for once thought that Buhari would win the ticket. Atiku and his associates, for example, used to laugh whenever Buhari’s name featured in their private discussions. This is no allegation, because Atiku could not even hide it in public. The BBC Hausa Service once asked him about the chances of Buhari, just about a month after the latter joined politics. Atiku laughed lightly before giving an answer. Around the same time, he publicly dismissed Buhari, saying, “He should know that politics is not for the novice.” As God would have it, and as we always emphasized, He alone has power over things. I doubt very much if Atiku and his men are laughing now. Even the ANPP leadership did not expect Buhari to win. In a recent interview with Musa Umar Kazaure, Bafarawa described Buhari’s victory as “God ordained.”
Even on empirical grounds, because we are human, many times we allow our judgements to be obscured by non-objective considerations. We sometimes prefer to close our eyes and declare that it is dark when it is broad daylight. In the end, such blindness does not prevent the truth from overwhelming us. I will forgive Atiku for this misjudgement because power breeds illusion, to the extent that, as Imam Shafi’i once put it, “the ruler would feel that the stars are located (not in heavens, but) beneath his feet.”
However, for the same mistake, I will not forgive my brother, Haruna. He is not in power and he lives in public. I wonder how he failed to see the scenario that unfolded in the victory of Buhari at the primaries months before it happened. Otherwise, look at his reasons: one, who among the contestants needed incumbency to win the ANPP ticket? None of the contestant was an incumbent. So incumbency was irrelevant, though the nation now knows that the Presidency was behind many of the candidates and the boycott they staged on the convention ground. Two, what has the view of Shinkafi and other seasoned politicians got to do with the primaries where over 80% of the delegates might have never read Shinkafi’s interviews. Surprisingly, it was the honourable Shinkafi that gracefully withdrew to improve the chances of Buhari.
Three, who is not contemptuous of politics and politicians in Nigeria with their habit of backstabbing, intrigues, dishonesty, and so on? The politicians are the most contemptuous of their conduct than newcomers like Buhari? Four, I thought Haruna was able to know that the ‘Islamic fundamentalism’ in Buhari is largely the fiction of the southern press. Up here in the North, it is difficult to come across writers who emphasize this point. Surprisingly, only Haruna does so consistently. However, as it was proved during the ANPP presidential primary, religion had no effect at all on the delegates.
Skeptics of Buhari’s victory were carried by another impression that is largely wrong. That he was not in the good books of the power brokers in the ANPP can hardly be doubted. In his last article, Haruna was thus right when he said, “Buhari emerged as ANPP candidate in spite of the party’s leadership, which probably had other plans.” But I strongly object to the list of Emirs that he purported General Buhari was not possibly in their good books. For the sensitivity of the matter and the implication it might have on the image of such Emirs among their wards, I wished Haruna had stuck to the “certain” and avoided the “possible.”
I am happy that he vindicated me in what was the bone of contention between the two of us some months ago when he said, “Certainly, he (Buhari) was not in the good books of the Emir of Gwandu, Alhaji Mustapha Jokolo…” But I think he was wrong on where the loyalty of the Emirs of Kano, Ilorin and the Etsu of Nupe lied. At no time, to my knowledge, has the three, and even Emir of Zaria, showed any resentment to Buhari. The first three I know warmly received Buhari in their palaces during his nationwide tours last year and I have never heard Buhari or any of his associates mentioning anything bad about them regarding his candidature. In The Buhari Organization, these Emirs are held in high esteem.
At any rate, the results proved the contrary. And I must congratulate Haruna for identifying the exact reason why Buhari won – grassroots support. I must go a bit further to say that few people even in the ANPP believed him when he emphasized his preference for grassroots politics over politics at the beginning. I remember very well where he first made this point: at the party secretariat in April when he paid his first visit. Few people there took him seriously given the recent history of our politics.
In the history of Nigerian politics, few presidential candidates went as far as Buhari did to prove the relevance of the masses. The tradition has been to concentrate on politicking within the party, forging alliances and securing positions such that when the primaries come the aspirants have a clear advantage over others. It was only after the aspirant has won the ticket that he goes out to face the public at rallies and other avenues. With the guide of God, Buhari reversed that tradition. He knew most of the politicians would be sceptical about his success in a game which they mastered its rules. So he left them and went down to their constituencies, meeting people in the street and visiting party and community leaders there, as if he was already a presidential candidate. The masses accepted him and thronged the routes he followed and the palaces he visited. This is what in his organization is called ‘heating the pot from the bottom.’
Within a short time, the perception of his colleagues in the ANPP began to change. Some supported him because they saw in him the potential that will bring success to the party at various levels. Others feared opposing him at the convention will certainly create difficulties for them in their constituencies. In the end, they all agreed that he was the aspirant who would give the party the best hope for winning the forthcoming elections. This strategy is a credit we think should be acknowledged and commended by all democrats. What else could be a victory for democracy other than for the people to see their champion emerge a winner? For the first time, the masses have forced the political class into accepting their choice. If the party will hold on to this during the forthcoming elections it will certainly record more success than it did in 1999.
It was clear even to other aspirants in the ANPP that none of them was a match to Buhari. One wonders really, if most of them were not trapped in the myth of promises similar to the ones given to Alex Ekwueme. Did Haruna expect people like Rochas and Nwodo to defeat Buhari? Kai, Kai. I know a lot of legwork was done to sell Nwodo to the North – the ACF, the Emirs and influential politicians in the region – by the camp that believes an Igbo candidate is the best for the North. But that effort was doomed because it was not based on the proper assessment of the political temperament of the region. Rochas added money to the equation. Members of the party from officials to delegates accepted his offer but failed to deliver their promise. As such, none of the delegates walked out along with the five aspirants who boycotted the convention.
As we said earlier, the error arose from the thought that money and intrigue are still the most important factors in politics of primary elections in Nigeria. Now another is added: massive grassroots support.
Reconciliation
I am glad that part of the dividends of Buhari’s victory in the primaries is the ongoing reconciliation effort with Babangida. I read with interest the statement signed by Babangida’s Special Assistant, Alhaji Ibrahim Ismail, as reported in the Daily Trust of 22 January 2003 and the promise of an exclusive interview that Babangida himself gave the newspaper.
I support the reconciliation and salute this level of commitment, especially when it was coming from a person that is notoriously known to avoid committing himself on matters of politics. He made a good judgement, I believe, going by the political realities of the last three weeks. It is never late.
Conclusion
After the primaries, the southern press has continued in a more vigorous manner to underrate the chances of Buhari. They are doing for the general elections the same thing they did for the primary, in addition to their campaign of calumny. Well, let them continue. They are in for another surprise. However, it will, God willing, be a pleasant one to all Nigerians who want governance to be guided by a good measure of transparency, dedication and fairness to all.
I agree with my brother Mohammed Haruna that Nigerians will be faced with the hardest election choices since independence because, except in their military background, Buhari and Obasanjo, represents diametrically different characters, institutions, cultures, worldviews, and so on. Another colleague correctly called it a ‘brutal divide.’ Nevertheless, the country should be proud that both are Nigerians. This signifies the richness in our composition. The choice definitely allows little or no room at all for manoeuvre. But when the time comes, I believe it will be easy for us to decide which direction to take. God willing, it will be a fulfilment of an expectation for most of us, and a pleasant surprise to many. Together, we will join hands in building a better Nigeria.
Congratulations, Mr. President
Congratulations, Mr. President!
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
Last week, this page carried predictions regarding primaries in our political parties [see Predicting the Primaries]. We will start the page today by recalling those predictions, in a summary form. They were:
• All the 36 governors will win the primaries.
• Obasanjo will defeat Ekwueme, flat
• Atiku will not contest, and he will beg to remain “the briefcase of the President”
• IBB cannot contest 2003
• Buhari will win the ANPP primaries
• NDP and UNDP will never find a credible northerner to split Buhari’s votes, and
• AD will support Obasanjo through aligning with PDP
Governors
So far, all the governors in PDP and ANPP, except Kachalla of Borno State, have been declared candidates of their parties. While in ANPP the decision of maintaining the status quo regarding the governors was greeted with little acrimony, the same in the PDP, as usual, attracted a lot of petitions, disputes, and loss of membership including the dozen aspirants who, led by Senator Haruna Abubakar, after being suspended by the party, earlier abandoned the party for NDP.
The PDP had trouble managing the crisis. It was a pity that in handling petitions and complaints the party did not consult its conscience. Its leadership cheaply surrendered to the influence of power, the grip of fear and expectation for future benefit. In its calculation, as we said last week, it expects the governors to reciprocate the gesture with supporting the president in the primaries. In addition since election in Nigeria so far has been dominated by rigging and the governors are those who have the capacity of doing so, the best assurance of retaining power in 2003 is not to be at variance with them. It sounds logical, but only if the country will continue to remain a clone of its past. If so, PDP needs to also look at the other side of the coin. Rigging by civilian administrations have only helped to terminate the lifespan of their republics, turning winners into instant losers.
I am glad that, perhaps in appreciation of our argument last week, Governor Kwankwaso of Kano State has publicly asserted over the BBC Hausa Service that all the complaints by other aspirants to his seat are baseless. He asked a practical question, saying, “Is it not on the delegates from local governments that the whole dispute is about (i.e. that other aspirants hope to get their votes from)? Then he used the affirmative answer to adjudge, saying, “As long as it is the same (PDP) formula that will be used, nobody can defeat any governor.” True. The default setting, if we will borrow from the software vocabulary, is preference to any incumbent regardless of his performance in office or the wish of his people. That is democracy in Nigeria a la PDP and ANPP.
The formula has really created a lot of problems and meted a lot of injustices. In Plateau State for example, it was used even at the primaries of councillors and members of state House of Assembly. Wherever a calculation was made in a ward or local government and it was apparent that by the background of the delegates members of an ethnic group or religion would win, political appointees are imported from the Government House to ensure that the winner comes only from the same religion as the governor.
In some states there were complaints that the ballot papers issued to delegates, by the losers of course, were marked in such a way that the incumbent governor will be able to know who among the delegates did not vote for him. And a way was found of making the delegates aware of this prior to the election. What could they do other than vote for the governors? This is the height of mistrust and self-defeat. It was not surprising therefore that some governors lost only a vote or two while others got 100%.
As it was widely reported, there have been contradictions regarding the official position of PDP on the merit of the primaries at least in six states until when the party made a blanket declaration upholding them in spite of the petitions.
A day after the declaration, all PDP governors declared their resolve to support Obasanjo in the primaries. Thus, as we said last week, the primaries will resemble what happened during the party convention in 2000.
Obasanjo
If Ekwueme, Rimi and Gemade will compute the few minutes’ arithmetic of the primaries carefully, taking into cognisance that the delegates will include political aides at the federal and state levels, they will realize that it is fruitless for them to appear at the primaries. It is better for them to go and have a sound sleep on the days of the convention. After waking up, they can choose to cross over to any of the twenty-nine other parties.
Roughly, using the 1999 constitution as a guide, there are 764 local governments in the 36 states of the federation. Formerly the number of delegates from each local government to the national convention were 5; now they have been reduced to 1, clearly, to favour the president. This gives the total of local government delegates as 769, if we include the delegates of Federal Capital Territory. Out of 36 states, the PDP has governments in 21 states. Using the number of local governments in each state, the number of delegates from PDP states is 58.8% of the total. If the governors keep their promise, the President, together with his “effort” – and his effort in this matter of PDP is great, can rest assured that he has at nothing less than half of the delegates from local governments.
He needs to turn to other source of delegates. The state governors have political appointees, as shown in their last primaries, more than the total number of delegates from each local government. They will take this crowd along to the national convention and use it to support the President. If they are allowed, it will be a total disaster for other aspirants.
If even we conservatively equate the number of political appointees to the total number of local government delegates for gubernatorial primaries, Obasanjo is assured of at least over 2,000 votes, about two thirds of the total votes. Add this to his own number of political appointees which must be close to 500, and those of the Vice-President, who must do his best at this moment to clear any lingering doubt regarding his loyalty to the President.
The entire arithmetic gives the President roughly about 2500 votes. This is clearly well over 70% of the votes at the convention. Congratulations Mr. President. Ha, some heads will roll.
Doubts
There are two grey areas to the above theory: Niger state and the Igbo factor. The governor of Niger State has since the inception of this administration proved to be a Nubian to the core. He has held an independent mind, as the only governor that has never been a sycophant Obasanjo. This almost cost him his seat, though he was able to ward off the threat, with the same dexterity that his grandparents used to construct the Egyptian pyramids. Many people, including myself, have expressed doubt whether the Nubians in Nigeria will vote for Obasanjo. But even if they don’t, that will not undermine the chances of the President.
Some have since the publication of the last article expressed the possibility of the ethnic factor, i.e. Igbo delegates and their governors will not vote for Obasanjo. The possibility is there, but the probability is insignificant – for two reasons: the influence of their governors who are all PDP, and the mercantile nature of Igbo politics. Be sure of finding the Igbo where money is. Just sound some money in the ears of their dead, as al-Hariri once exaggerated in Assemblies, he will wake up to grab it, and ask you: “Whom do you want me to kill?” No. No… Mr. President is not asking for any head. He is simply begging you to vote for him at the PDP primaries because he loves Nigeria so much that he is offering to serve it for another term. And in Nigeria, but especially in the PDP, money is in the Presidency, with Mr. President.
For the same reason, northern delegates will obey their governors. In fact, I doubt much if in a purely PDP affair there will be any foolish northern delegate that will miss the golden chance of collecting Obasanjo’s money, which could be enough to solve all his needs for a year. Even if Obasanjo decides to buy each delegate, including the VP, his ministers, ambassadors, MDs of parastatals, with a million Naira each, he needs only N8 billion. This is peanuts, in this arithmetic of the presidency. Let us remember that Thisday has told us, as far back as early last year, that the campaign team of the President already had N32billion in their purse, as of then. I do not think any delegate who, for nothing, will court the wrath of his governor and/or fail to return home smiling with N1m in his pocket. Even the Nubians will think twice. May someone educate me please on whether the National Assembly was able to receive from the President a detailed account of the N400 billion they said were not accounted for by NNPC. Sorry. We do not have a minister of petroleum. And may the soul of Idris Abubakar rest in peace!
I said “for nothing” because, one, the presidency has already been zoned to the south by the caucus of the party. It is a tradition of the PDP not to revert any decision taken. This may not be an exception. Two, how can a northerner forfeit a million Naira simply because he wants Ekwueme to win. To him both candidates present one form of risk or another. The President presents a continuation of marginalization in economy, especially projects, education, agriculture, water and power, at least for another four years. Ekwueme, on the other hand, presents the risk of a permanent and more advanced form of marginalization that will follow his idea of restructuring the federation.
A more serious reason why I will appeal to all northern delegates not to waste their votes on Ekwueme but collect the millions of Obasanjo is that it is increasingly becoming clear that Ekwueme’s candidature, according to one theory, is part of a grand design to preserve Obasanjo’s candidature in which both of them i.e. Obasanjo and Ekwueme have connived. This solves the apparent contradiction in our last article where we asserted that IBB is behind the idea of Igbo candidate while at the same time his real candidate remains Obasanjo.
Actually I went to bed after writing that article aware of that contradiction. But last Sunday my attention was drawn to some information that include the patronage that Ekwueme has been enjoying from the federal government, the nature of his emergence as an aspirant this time, and the lackadaisical manner in which he is conducting his campaign. I am satisfied that the nation may one day realize that the presidential nomination in the PDP was either stage-managed or a miscalculation by some people.
Buhari
If it were the PDP alone, we would have said democracy in Nigeria has been murdered and buried already. 2003 would have been of no significance at all. However, there still seem to be some hope in the primaries of the ANPP where Buhari, it is strongly believed, will emerge as the flag bearer of that party. If it so happens, then Nigerians have a true alternative to Obasanjo.
In spite of the proliferation of possible negative scenarios, I still subscribe to the positive one that I gave last week. That is because I do not think the party will gamble will the best chance it has. If it really wants to promise Nigerians that it is presenting an alternative to the wasteful administration of Obasanjo, the ANPP has no better alternative among its aspirants today than Buhari. Obasanjo’s administration has epitomized waste, corruption, incompetence, complacency and connivance in the management of our resources. He has also symbolized insecurity and instability expressed in consistent unrest, political thuggery, and the general absence of rule of law. He has undermined democracy through manipulating the National Assembly and his party.
Few Nigerians will disagree that, on the other hand, Buhari represents the direct contrast of the above, as far as his record and that of his administration are concerned.
The party itself stands to gain more by consolidating the gains brought about by the membership of Buhari if it elects him as its presidential candidate. The widespread sympathy that it has, though many party chieftains may not like concede it, is because of his membership. This will be further strengthened if he emerges as the winner of its presidential ticket.
The opposite is also true. His failure to win the ticket may create a bad blood for the party. It will certainly lose its members who join the party along with him – and they are many – in the hope of finding an alternative to the present regime. Commoners will also listen to the PDP that will use his failure to accuse ANPP of cin amana (breach of trust).
At any rate, it is left to the officials of the ANPP and their members to determine what will happen at the next convention of the party. Money will certainly be distributed by some aspirants, outside forces and the federal government. Different intrigues will be used. I strongly call on the delegates to collect as much money as possible from the aspirants and other sources, regardless of any oath they will be asked to take. But in this case they should follow their conscience to vote for Buhari; he is neither Obasanjo nor Ekwueme.
Finally, Buhari will represent the popular dimension of 2003 presidential election. There is little doubt that he will have the popular vote, while the President will have incumbent ones. After the primaries, when we begin to analyse the outcome of the election that will take place in April, we will try to quantify the contribution of both components. Thus, the ANPP is assured of consolidating the victory it had in 1999 and a possible increment as a result of the Buhari factor and the ‘anti-party’ activities of disgruntled PDP elements who were edged out of its gubernatorial and presidential primaries.
Prayer
Next week, the graph of our anxiety will reach one of its peaks in our political history. By next week Friday, readers must have known the outcome of the primaries in both PDP and ANPP. Notwithstanding whatever we said in this page, we wish every aspirant success. But they should understand that in every competition there would only be one winner. We hope that members of both parties will endeavour to produce the best for the country such that we Nigerians can vote usefully next April. And our greatest hope is in God, the Lord of the Worlds.
________________________
Even if Obasanjo decides to buy each delegate, including the VP, his ministers, ambassadors, MDs of parastatals, with a million Naira each, he needs only about N8 billion. This is peanut, in this arithmetic of the presidency.
_____________________________
I strongly call on the delegates to collect as much money as possible from the aspirants and other sources, regardless of any oath they will be asked to take.
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
Last week, this page carried predictions regarding primaries in our political parties [see Predicting the Primaries]. We will start the page today by recalling those predictions, in a summary form. They were:
• All the 36 governors will win the primaries.
• Obasanjo will defeat Ekwueme, flat
• Atiku will not contest, and he will beg to remain “the briefcase of the President”
• IBB cannot contest 2003
• Buhari will win the ANPP primaries
• NDP and UNDP will never find a credible northerner to split Buhari’s votes, and
• AD will support Obasanjo through aligning with PDP
Governors
So far, all the governors in PDP and ANPP, except Kachalla of Borno State, have been declared candidates of their parties. While in ANPP the decision of maintaining the status quo regarding the governors was greeted with little acrimony, the same in the PDP, as usual, attracted a lot of petitions, disputes, and loss of membership including the dozen aspirants who, led by Senator Haruna Abubakar, after being suspended by the party, earlier abandoned the party for NDP.
The PDP had trouble managing the crisis. It was a pity that in handling petitions and complaints the party did not consult its conscience. Its leadership cheaply surrendered to the influence of power, the grip of fear and expectation for future benefit. In its calculation, as we said last week, it expects the governors to reciprocate the gesture with supporting the president in the primaries. In addition since election in Nigeria so far has been dominated by rigging and the governors are those who have the capacity of doing so, the best assurance of retaining power in 2003 is not to be at variance with them. It sounds logical, but only if the country will continue to remain a clone of its past. If so, PDP needs to also look at the other side of the coin. Rigging by civilian administrations have only helped to terminate the lifespan of their republics, turning winners into instant losers.
I am glad that, perhaps in appreciation of our argument last week, Governor Kwankwaso of Kano State has publicly asserted over the BBC Hausa Service that all the complaints by other aspirants to his seat are baseless. He asked a practical question, saying, “Is it not on the delegates from local governments that the whole dispute is about (i.e. that other aspirants hope to get their votes from)? Then he used the affirmative answer to adjudge, saying, “As long as it is the same (PDP) formula that will be used, nobody can defeat any governor.” True. The default setting, if we will borrow from the software vocabulary, is preference to any incumbent regardless of his performance in office or the wish of his people. That is democracy in Nigeria a la PDP and ANPP.
The formula has really created a lot of problems and meted a lot of injustices. In Plateau State for example, it was used even at the primaries of councillors and members of state House of Assembly. Wherever a calculation was made in a ward or local government and it was apparent that by the background of the delegates members of an ethnic group or religion would win, political appointees are imported from the Government House to ensure that the winner comes only from the same religion as the governor.
In some states there were complaints that the ballot papers issued to delegates, by the losers of course, were marked in such a way that the incumbent governor will be able to know who among the delegates did not vote for him. And a way was found of making the delegates aware of this prior to the election. What could they do other than vote for the governors? This is the height of mistrust and self-defeat. It was not surprising therefore that some governors lost only a vote or two while others got 100%.
As it was widely reported, there have been contradictions regarding the official position of PDP on the merit of the primaries at least in six states until when the party made a blanket declaration upholding them in spite of the petitions.
A day after the declaration, all PDP governors declared their resolve to support Obasanjo in the primaries. Thus, as we said last week, the primaries will resemble what happened during the party convention in 2000.
Obasanjo
If Ekwueme, Rimi and Gemade will compute the few minutes’ arithmetic of the primaries carefully, taking into cognisance that the delegates will include political aides at the federal and state levels, they will realize that it is fruitless for them to appear at the primaries. It is better for them to go and have a sound sleep on the days of the convention. After waking up, they can choose to cross over to any of the twenty-nine other parties.
Roughly, using the 1999 constitution as a guide, there are 764 local governments in the 36 states of the federation. Formerly the number of delegates from each local government to the national convention were 5; now they have been reduced to 1, clearly, to favour the president. This gives the total of local government delegates as 769, if we include the delegates of Federal Capital Territory. Out of 36 states, the PDP has governments in 21 states. Using the number of local governments in each state, the number of delegates from PDP states is 58.8% of the total. If the governors keep their promise, the President, together with his “effort” – and his effort in this matter of PDP is great, can rest assured that he has at nothing less than half of the delegates from local governments.
He needs to turn to other source of delegates. The state governors have political appointees, as shown in their last primaries, more than the total number of delegates from each local government. They will take this crowd along to the national convention and use it to support the President. If they are allowed, it will be a total disaster for other aspirants.
If even we conservatively equate the number of political appointees to the total number of local government delegates for gubernatorial primaries, Obasanjo is assured of at least over 2,000 votes, about two thirds of the total votes. Add this to his own number of political appointees which must be close to 500, and those of the Vice-President, who must do his best at this moment to clear any lingering doubt regarding his loyalty to the President.
The entire arithmetic gives the President roughly about 2500 votes. This is clearly well over 70% of the votes at the convention. Congratulations Mr. President. Ha, some heads will roll.
Doubts
There are two grey areas to the above theory: Niger state and the Igbo factor. The governor of Niger State has since the inception of this administration proved to be a Nubian to the core. He has held an independent mind, as the only governor that has never been a sycophant Obasanjo. This almost cost him his seat, though he was able to ward off the threat, with the same dexterity that his grandparents used to construct the Egyptian pyramids. Many people, including myself, have expressed doubt whether the Nubians in Nigeria will vote for Obasanjo. But even if they don’t, that will not undermine the chances of the President.
Some have since the publication of the last article expressed the possibility of the ethnic factor, i.e. Igbo delegates and their governors will not vote for Obasanjo. The possibility is there, but the probability is insignificant – for two reasons: the influence of their governors who are all PDP, and the mercantile nature of Igbo politics. Be sure of finding the Igbo where money is. Just sound some money in the ears of their dead, as al-Hariri once exaggerated in Assemblies, he will wake up to grab it, and ask you: “Whom do you want me to kill?” No. No… Mr. President is not asking for any head. He is simply begging you to vote for him at the PDP primaries because he loves Nigeria so much that he is offering to serve it for another term. And in Nigeria, but especially in the PDP, money is in the Presidency, with Mr. President.
For the same reason, northern delegates will obey their governors. In fact, I doubt much if in a purely PDP affair there will be any foolish northern delegate that will miss the golden chance of collecting Obasanjo’s money, which could be enough to solve all his needs for a year. Even if Obasanjo decides to buy each delegate, including the VP, his ministers, ambassadors, MDs of parastatals, with a million Naira each, he needs only N8 billion. This is peanuts, in this arithmetic of the presidency. Let us remember that Thisday has told us, as far back as early last year, that the campaign team of the President already had N32billion in their purse, as of then. I do not think any delegate who, for nothing, will court the wrath of his governor and/or fail to return home smiling with N1m in his pocket. Even the Nubians will think twice. May someone educate me please on whether the National Assembly was able to receive from the President a detailed account of the N400 billion they said were not accounted for by NNPC. Sorry. We do not have a minister of petroleum. And may the soul of Idris Abubakar rest in peace!
I said “for nothing” because, one, the presidency has already been zoned to the south by the caucus of the party. It is a tradition of the PDP not to revert any decision taken. This may not be an exception. Two, how can a northerner forfeit a million Naira simply because he wants Ekwueme to win. To him both candidates present one form of risk or another. The President presents a continuation of marginalization in economy, especially projects, education, agriculture, water and power, at least for another four years. Ekwueme, on the other hand, presents the risk of a permanent and more advanced form of marginalization that will follow his idea of restructuring the federation.
A more serious reason why I will appeal to all northern delegates not to waste their votes on Ekwueme but collect the millions of Obasanjo is that it is increasingly becoming clear that Ekwueme’s candidature, according to one theory, is part of a grand design to preserve Obasanjo’s candidature in which both of them i.e. Obasanjo and Ekwueme have connived. This solves the apparent contradiction in our last article where we asserted that IBB is behind the idea of Igbo candidate while at the same time his real candidate remains Obasanjo.
Actually I went to bed after writing that article aware of that contradiction. But last Sunday my attention was drawn to some information that include the patronage that Ekwueme has been enjoying from the federal government, the nature of his emergence as an aspirant this time, and the lackadaisical manner in which he is conducting his campaign. I am satisfied that the nation may one day realize that the presidential nomination in the PDP was either stage-managed or a miscalculation by some people.
Buhari
If it were the PDP alone, we would have said democracy in Nigeria has been murdered and buried already. 2003 would have been of no significance at all. However, there still seem to be some hope in the primaries of the ANPP where Buhari, it is strongly believed, will emerge as the flag bearer of that party. If it so happens, then Nigerians have a true alternative to Obasanjo.
In spite of the proliferation of possible negative scenarios, I still subscribe to the positive one that I gave last week. That is because I do not think the party will gamble will the best chance it has. If it really wants to promise Nigerians that it is presenting an alternative to the wasteful administration of Obasanjo, the ANPP has no better alternative among its aspirants today than Buhari. Obasanjo’s administration has epitomized waste, corruption, incompetence, complacency and connivance in the management of our resources. He has also symbolized insecurity and instability expressed in consistent unrest, political thuggery, and the general absence of rule of law. He has undermined democracy through manipulating the National Assembly and his party.
Few Nigerians will disagree that, on the other hand, Buhari represents the direct contrast of the above, as far as his record and that of his administration are concerned.
The party itself stands to gain more by consolidating the gains brought about by the membership of Buhari if it elects him as its presidential candidate. The widespread sympathy that it has, though many party chieftains may not like concede it, is because of his membership. This will be further strengthened if he emerges as the winner of its presidential ticket.
The opposite is also true. His failure to win the ticket may create a bad blood for the party. It will certainly lose its members who join the party along with him – and they are many – in the hope of finding an alternative to the present regime. Commoners will also listen to the PDP that will use his failure to accuse ANPP of cin amana (breach of trust).
At any rate, it is left to the officials of the ANPP and their members to determine what will happen at the next convention of the party. Money will certainly be distributed by some aspirants, outside forces and the federal government. Different intrigues will be used. I strongly call on the delegates to collect as much money as possible from the aspirants and other sources, regardless of any oath they will be asked to take. But in this case they should follow their conscience to vote for Buhari; he is neither Obasanjo nor Ekwueme.
Finally, Buhari will represent the popular dimension of 2003 presidential election. There is little doubt that he will have the popular vote, while the President will have incumbent ones. After the primaries, when we begin to analyse the outcome of the election that will take place in April, we will try to quantify the contribution of both components. Thus, the ANPP is assured of consolidating the victory it had in 1999 and a possible increment as a result of the Buhari factor and the ‘anti-party’ activities of disgruntled PDP elements who were edged out of its gubernatorial and presidential primaries.
Prayer
Next week, the graph of our anxiety will reach one of its peaks in our political history. By next week Friday, readers must have known the outcome of the primaries in both PDP and ANPP. Notwithstanding whatever we said in this page, we wish every aspirant success. But they should understand that in every competition there would only be one winner. We hope that members of both parties will endeavour to produce the best for the country such that we Nigerians can vote usefully next April. And our greatest hope is in God, the Lord of the Worlds.
________________________
Even if Obasanjo decides to buy each delegate, including the VP, his ministers, ambassadors, MDs of parastatals, with a million Naira each, he needs only about N8 billion. This is peanut, in this arithmetic of the presidency.
_____________________________
I strongly call on the delegates to collect as much money as possible from the aspirants and other sources, regardless of any oath they will be asked to take.
Predicting the Primaries
Predicting the Primaries
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
INEC has given registered parties a dateline in January for submitting the names of their candidates for state and federal elections. Our anxieties will soon be over because all parties interested in partaking in the elections have to conclude their manoeuvres and intrigues of primaries before then.
In this article, I tried to explore candidatures within the context of the emerging scenarios in the various camps. I strongly feel that amidst the conflicting web of information reaching the public, writings on the wall have started becoming clear for an average mind to discern the outcome of party primaries and say, with good degree of accuracy, who will be the major contestants in the various elections. At the federal level, I have the strong feeling that Buhari and Obasanjo will be the main, if not the only contenders to slug it out in the race for the presidency. As for the governorship elections, the incumbents will remain, perhaps except for very few.
PDP
Lets us start with the PDP, the party which I have always credited with dominating the political terrain in the country. Obasanjo will emerge as its flag bearer, and in all states where it is in power, its governors will emerge as winners in the primaries.
The reasons are simple and clear. The formula of the party makes it almost impossible for any contestant to defeat an incumbent in the party primaries. Giving assistants, advisers, and cabinet members the right to vote is devastating to any opponent of the incumbent. It will in fact be foolish for anybody to contest the primaries against any incumbent governor. Ah, most of the governors have increased the number of their assistants and the like to such a figure that is greater than the total number of delegates from all the local governments in their states. There is no wonder therefore that most of those contesting against the governors have withdrawn from the race under one pretext or another. The fact, however, is that they have already concluded that they cannot win.
Another factor is that even when it comes to the issue of delegates from local governments, I cannot see how the party will agree to enlist a delegate who is opposed to the second term of a governor. The governor has been their breadwinner for the past four years and he is still in a position to promise and deliver them more. Why should they support someone whose fate is still hanging a million miles above sea level? The governors already have their supervisors in the name of chairmen of the caretaker committees of various local governments to various parts of the state. None of them will fail to use whatever spade is in his hands to deliver. And the spades in their hands those chairmen are many!
As for Obasanjo, he will defeat Ekwueme, ‘flat,’ as we say in our colloquial parlance. In fact, if Ekwueme and other candidates were to read this piece, they should accept my advice and find a clever way to withdraw from the race in order to save their faces. Here are my reasons.
One, Obasanjo has the same advantage over them as the governors. He has numerous assistants, advisers, ministers and so on. His opponents have none. The advantage of these officials is not limited to their votes alone. Each of them – money in his pocket, hand and mouth – has a constituency. He will return to his people, mobilize them, assist in their transport, feeding and accommodation during the convention, and ensure that they return with some ‘change’ in their pocket which they will use to solve some of their infinite problems at home...
Two, the party, for whatever reason, has proved to be behind Obasanjo. You can see that from their various attempts to introduce further measures that will prevent threats to Obasanjo’s success during the primaries. Zoning is one such measure. The party can insist on it to prevent people like Rimi and others from contesting the primaries, or at least introduce some doubt about the likelihood of their success in the minds of the delegates.
Three, all the governors, perhaps except one, will work and vote for Obasanjo during the primaries. This is reciprocation to the ‘Anenih formula’ which the party has adopted. It is about six weeks now since Anenih bluntly assured the world that PDP will retain its incumbent governors. The media and other aspirants cried foul. But PDP is a deaf donkey. It cannot listen. Even if it could, it won’t; so it remains fixed where it is, even when it is at the middle of a highway and a trailer is approaching to crush it! Last week, the party dismissed ten of its aspirants, believing that such people are irrelevant variables in the context of the calculations with which it hopes to win the next elections.
Four, there is serious doubt whether the ‘North’, whatever that means, will support Ekwueme. One is that all efforts to get the region to support an Igbo candidate have failed woefully. IBB has tried to get ACF accept the idea of Igbo candidate but the organization has refused. Instead, it preferred the presidential ticket to be left open and to be won on the basis of merit as their advert in this magazine some weeks ago has shown. I therefore doubt if there will be any pressure on any of the governors or ministers in the PDP to betray Obasanjo and support Ekwueme.
Secondly, it is now common knowledge that Ekwueme is counting on the support of IBB and his people, the camp that has been busy selling the idea of an Igbo candidate for over six months now. However, things have not been going on well for IBB. He could not even get the Awoniyi he supported to be the Chairman of PDP, to his surprise, simply because Obasanjo and the governors colluded to frustrate the process and ensure Gemade’s success unfailingly. This time again, the PDP delegates will be with their governors and their ministers, not with IBB. For this miscalculation, I am afraid that neither Ekwueme nor the Igbos will forgive IBB if he fails to win the PDP primaries again. I pray that they forgive him.
So in the PDP the most important factor is incumbency. The President has it, he has supported the governors and they will in turn reciprocate his kind gesture.
I was among those who once called on the vice-president to contest. Then, I was thinking that the party would be democratic in its primaries than how it has proved now. The writing on the wall must be clear to the VP, with what we said so far, that if he heeds the call of some of his aids and challenged the President in the primaries, that may be the end of his career in politics. He stands a better chance of prolonging it by doing all he could to remain “the briefcase of the President”, as he once described himself. However, no one can assure the VP, 100%, that the president will not drop that briefcase for a better one. He may and he may not. Atiku has been cashing on the loyalty of the Yaradua group. But I doubt if that group is as formidable as the VP thinks it is, or that the President has not broken into that harem at the middle of the night and snatched away some of its concubines. Atiku needs to kneel before the President and plead: “Forgive your briefcase, my lord, for it has sinned. It was the devils work – my aids and people like Tilde – who made me feel I can on my own walk around in the market without the grip of the hand of your majesty.”
Before leaving the PDP let me hasten to observe that Obasanjo has in unknowingly ensured that many senators and members of the House in his party do not return by refusing to do any work in their constituencies. This, combined with the fact that the electorate often mistakenly equate the role of legislature to that of the executive, made it was easy for new comers, whose equal incapacity is yet to unravel to the electorate, to defeat them in many places with wide margins. Poor losers! They are returning to join our wagon of helpless observers.
ANPP
I will give a positive version of the ANPP, keeping the other perhaps until a later date. This is a quiet party as far as gubernatorial primaries are concerned. Apart from Borno State where the governor has honourably chosen to leave the party for Senator Sherif, other governors and legislators are returning unopposed. There are in fact no formidable challengers from within the party at that level and downwards to warrant any curiosity or stir any anxiety.
Anxiety is up, in the presidential election of the APP. The nation as a whole is waiting for it. Will the party pick a strong candidate who will pose a threat to Obasanjo or will it pick an ‘arrangee’ who will ensure Obasanjo has an easy ride back to Aso Rock? The Presidency and other groups opposed to Buhari will certainly prefer to play the latter. I reserve my further comment on this.
Here, unlike in the PDP, there is no President with plethora of ministers to enjoy the incumbency vote. Precisely, the contention is between Buhari and other aspirants. And the others are many, to the advantage of Buhari, in one scenario. There are about eleven aspirants: at least five aspirants from Southeast, one from South-south, and five from the North. None of them has a chance as bright as Buhari’s. He has the clear advantage of popularity, being one of the best leaders the country ever produced. He also represents a style of leadership that is in direct contrast to that of Obasanjo and his three military predecessors. This has endeared him to many and made him an ideal opponent in the presidential election. Thirdly, no other candidate enjoys a wider coverage of support in the party than him. Etc.
It is doubtful if the party will openly favour any candidate. Both Bafarawa and Lawal, the chairman of the coordination committee, may have their candidates as individuals. But I doubt if they are ready to borrow a leaf from their predecessor in 1999, Senator Mahmud Waziri, or from the PDP where the party will damn the consequences and adopt undemocratic measures. PDP, it is clear to them, has cards they can rely upon in the presidential elections which the ANPP does not have. I heard Bafarawa reiterating that ANPP is a party for all Nigerians. So there is no zoning; every member is free to contest. That was a big effort, for there have been many ‘influential people’ who tried to lure the ANPP leadership into adopting such undemocratic stand, simply to ‘outzone’ Buhari out of the contest.
The party also resisted the advise of a consensus candidate which the same influential people have tried to sell. It has maintained, with Bafarawa swearing by God, that it will stage free and fair primaries, and advising all aspirants to go to the delegates and solicit for votes.
Buhari may not be contesting against ten candidates. Some of them may be convinced to align in order to defeat him. Some will definitely stick to their guns. Few may drop out in fear of wasting their N10 million in a gamble they have never contemplated winning. That is only how much I will divulge. The rest should come after the primaries.
AD
The AD will wait until after the primaries of the PDP. If Obasanjo wins the ticket of the PDP, AD will not field a candidate. They will rather align with PDP, or to put it more precisely, choose to work for their incumbent tribesman, than come out with another who will reduce his chance of winning the presidential election. If – and this ‘if’ is very unlikely as we have seen – Obasanjo loses the primaries, then, as one of the fallouts of that loss, AD will overnight punish the PDP by presenting a candidate who will deny it the block votes of the Southwest. That will be in addition to the punishment that Obasanjo will mete on the party – denying it incumbency.
New Parties
The old parties will dominate the scene in the forthcoming elections, at all levels. New parties are very unlikely to make any impact in 2003. Most of them will try to align with one of the old ones. For example, if Balarabe Musa is serious about his support for Obasanjo, we expect his PRP to align with the PDP. For a doyen of progressive politics, that will be the steepest retrogression, with y at infinity and x at 0.
It is now clear that even NDP and UNDP have been unable to garner support from the Nigerian public. This is partly because people see them as creations of Babangida, “a cross” which Saleh Jambo, the leader of UNDP, was frank enough to confess that “they must carry.” Calling the cross suggests that the NDP and the UNDP may fail three times as did the career of the first cross (Peace be Upon Him).
Last week, the Weekly Trust carried a cover titled “IBB’s Game Plan.” I disagree with their entire analysis. It is surprising that a paper like it cannot see clearly the ongoing decline and fall of the IBB empire, to borrow from the celebrated title of Edward Gibbon. The influence of IBB has been declining since he left power in 1993, except for the one year tenure of Abdulsalami. No doubt IBB was powerful as a Head of State and President for reasons we have mentioned in our earlier discourses. But once out of it, and without an ally like Abdulsalami who put government machinery at the disposal of IBB, virtually all IBB’s calculations and intrigues failed, especially within the present PDP.
IBB, in spite of what Kabiru Gaya said, will not run in 2003. I have said it before and I will say it again, times without number. One, it is against his material interest. Two, it is against his nature to undertake a real contest because he will stand the risk of self-demystification. I cannot see him running against Buhari, a popular candidate and/or Obasanjo, an incumbent. Moreover, Obasanjo is a strong ally against whom IBB has promised never to contest in an election.
The most likely thing to happen is that IBB will make NDP and UNDP swallow their pride and back Obasanjo, especially if Buhari emerges as the flag bearer of ANPP. IBB is closer to Obasanjo than he is to Buhari. In fact, as I have once said, IBB’s candidate is Obasanjo. Events since Buhari joined politics have clearly shown that he will need the assistance of IBB in 2003 as much as he will need that of Obasanjo.
Finally, hardly will NDP or UNDP succeed in procuring a credible candidate from the North neither one who will defeat Obasanjo nor another who will be ready to go down in history as the mercenary who subverted the chances of Buhari. Marwa for one, contrary to the report of Weekly Trust and some other journalists, will never do this dirty job.
The other new parties will only be successful in serving as bottlenecks against the administration of a smooth transition. They are right now insisting that INEC’s timetable is inimical to their constitutional rights. If we listen to them we are going to end up in anarchy. They should rather face the challenge before them, of going to local governments and states and gather people that will support them at the grassroots. Each of them should map out localities where it is likely to make an impact, particularly at the local government level and secure its chairmanship. One or two may even aim at defeating an incumbent ANPP governor or so. There is a small window though, by which the parties may also sit, watching and waiting for any aggrieved aspirant to jump in from the PDP or ANPP primaries. But, nothing more. 2007 should be the goal of those among them that survive the harsh Saharan weather of opposition politics.
Conclusion
That is my idea for the primaries. I am not 100% sure that everything will work out this way. It is not an indulgence in the unseen but an effort to discern the future, using common knowledge. God knows best. Whatever it is now, the situation in the dominant parties will be known in the next two weeks, and in all within a month. Then you can say whether I was accurate or not. Then, also, we can go forward and start talking about the general election, about what forces are likely to work in favour of this or that candidate, and possibly, even predict before hand, the occupant of Aso Rock, come May 29, 2002.
________________________
In fact, as I have once said, IBB’s candidate is Obasanjo. Events since Buhari joined politics have clearly shown that he will need the assistance of IBB in 2003 as much as he will need that of Obasanjo.
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
INEC has given registered parties a dateline in January for submitting the names of their candidates for state and federal elections. Our anxieties will soon be over because all parties interested in partaking in the elections have to conclude their manoeuvres and intrigues of primaries before then.
In this article, I tried to explore candidatures within the context of the emerging scenarios in the various camps. I strongly feel that amidst the conflicting web of information reaching the public, writings on the wall have started becoming clear for an average mind to discern the outcome of party primaries and say, with good degree of accuracy, who will be the major contestants in the various elections. At the federal level, I have the strong feeling that Buhari and Obasanjo will be the main, if not the only contenders to slug it out in the race for the presidency. As for the governorship elections, the incumbents will remain, perhaps except for very few.
PDP
Lets us start with the PDP, the party which I have always credited with dominating the political terrain in the country. Obasanjo will emerge as its flag bearer, and in all states where it is in power, its governors will emerge as winners in the primaries.
The reasons are simple and clear. The formula of the party makes it almost impossible for any contestant to defeat an incumbent in the party primaries. Giving assistants, advisers, and cabinet members the right to vote is devastating to any opponent of the incumbent. It will in fact be foolish for anybody to contest the primaries against any incumbent governor. Ah, most of the governors have increased the number of their assistants and the like to such a figure that is greater than the total number of delegates from all the local governments in their states. There is no wonder therefore that most of those contesting against the governors have withdrawn from the race under one pretext or another. The fact, however, is that they have already concluded that they cannot win.
Another factor is that even when it comes to the issue of delegates from local governments, I cannot see how the party will agree to enlist a delegate who is opposed to the second term of a governor. The governor has been their breadwinner for the past four years and he is still in a position to promise and deliver them more. Why should they support someone whose fate is still hanging a million miles above sea level? The governors already have their supervisors in the name of chairmen of the caretaker committees of various local governments to various parts of the state. None of them will fail to use whatever spade is in his hands to deliver. And the spades in their hands those chairmen are many!
As for Obasanjo, he will defeat Ekwueme, ‘flat,’ as we say in our colloquial parlance. In fact, if Ekwueme and other candidates were to read this piece, they should accept my advice and find a clever way to withdraw from the race in order to save their faces. Here are my reasons.
One, Obasanjo has the same advantage over them as the governors. He has numerous assistants, advisers, ministers and so on. His opponents have none. The advantage of these officials is not limited to their votes alone. Each of them – money in his pocket, hand and mouth – has a constituency. He will return to his people, mobilize them, assist in their transport, feeding and accommodation during the convention, and ensure that they return with some ‘change’ in their pocket which they will use to solve some of their infinite problems at home...
Two, the party, for whatever reason, has proved to be behind Obasanjo. You can see that from their various attempts to introduce further measures that will prevent threats to Obasanjo’s success during the primaries. Zoning is one such measure. The party can insist on it to prevent people like Rimi and others from contesting the primaries, or at least introduce some doubt about the likelihood of their success in the minds of the delegates.
Three, all the governors, perhaps except one, will work and vote for Obasanjo during the primaries. This is reciprocation to the ‘Anenih formula’ which the party has adopted. It is about six weeks now since Anenih bluntly assured the world that PDP will retain its incumbent governors. The media and other aspirants cried foul. But PDP is a deaf donkey. It cannot listen. Even if it could, it won’t; so it remains fixed where it is, even when it is at the middle of a highway and a trailer is approaching to crush it! Last week, the party dismissed ten of its aspirants, believing that such people are irrelevant variables in the context of the calculations with which it hopes to win the next elections.
Four, there is serious doubt whether the ‘North’, whatever that means, will support Ekwueme. One is that all efforts to get the region to support an Igbo candidate have failed woefully. IBB has tried to get ACF accept the idea of Igbo candidate but the organization has refused. Instead, it preferred the presidential ticket to be left open and to be won on the basis of merit as their advert in this magazine some weeks ago has shown. I therefore doubt if there will be any pressure on any of the governors or ministers in the PDP to betray Obasanjo and support Ekwueme.
Secondly, it is now common knowledge that Ekwueme is counting on the support of IBB and his people, the camp that has been busy selling the idea of an Igbo candidate for over six months now. However, things have not been going on well for IBB. He could not even get the Awoniyi he supported to be the Chairman of PDP, to his surprise, simply because Obasanjo and the governors colluded to frustrate the process and ensure Gemade’s success unfailingly. This time again, the PDP delegates will be with their governors and their ministers, not with IBB. For this miscalculation, I am afraid that neither Ekwueme nor the Igbos will forgive IBB if he fails to win the PDP primaries again. I pray that they forgive him.
So in the PDP the most important factor is incumbency. The President has it, he has supported the governors and they will in turn reciprocate his kind gesture.
I was among those who once called on the vice-president to contest. Then, I was thinking that the party would be democratic in its primaries than how it has proved now. The writing on the wall must be clear to the VP, with what we said so far, that if he heeds the call of some of his aids and challenged the President in the primaries, that may be the end of his career in politics. He stands a better chance of prolonging it by doing all he could to remain “the briefcase of the President”, as he once described himself. However, no one can assure the VP, 100%, that the president will not drop that briefcase for a better one. He may and he may not. Atiku has been cashing on the loyalty of the Yaradua group. But I doubt if that group is as formidable as the VP thinks it is, or that the President has not broken into that harem at the middle of the night and snatched away some of its concubines. Atiku needs to kneel before the President and plead: “Forgive your briefcase, my lord, for it has sinned. It was the devils work – my aids and people like Tilde – who made me feel I can on my own walk around in the market without the grip of the hand of your majesty.”
Before leaving the PDP let me hasten to observe that Obasanjo has in unknowingly ensured that many senators and members of the House in his party do not return by refusing to do any work in their constituencies. This, combined with the fact that the electorate often mistakenly equate the role of legislature to that of the executive, made it was easy for new comers, whose equal incapacity is yet to unravel to the electorate, to defeat them in many places with wide margins. Poor losers! They are returning to join our wagon of helpless observers.
ANPP
I will give a positive version of the ANPP, keeping the other perhaps until a later date. This is a quiet party as far as gubernatorial primaries are concerned. Apart from Borno State where the governor has honourably chosen to leave the party for Senator Sherif, other governors and legislators are returning unopposed. There are in fact no formidable challengers from within the party at that level and downwards to warrant any curiosity or stir any anxiety.
Anxiety is up, in the presidential election of the APP. The nation as a whole is waiting for it. Will the party pick a strong candidate who will pose a threat to Obasanjo or will it pick an ‘arrangee’ who will ensure Obasanjo has an easy ride back to Aso Rock? The Presidency and other groups opposed to Buhari will certainly prefer to play the latter. I reserve my further comment on this.
Here, unlike in the PDP, there is no President with plethora of ministers to enjoy the incumbency vote. Precisely, the contention is between Buhari and other aspirants. And the others are many, to the advantage of Buhari, in one scenario. There are about eleven aspirants: at least five aspirants from Southeast, one from South-south, and five from the North. None of them has a chance as bright as Buhari’s. He has the clear advantage of popularity, being one of the best leaders the country ever produced. He also represents a style of leadership that is in direct contrast to that of Obasanjo and his three military predecessors. This has endeared him to many and made him an ideal opponent in the presidential election. Thirdly, no other candidate enjoys a wider coverage of support in the party than him. Etc.
It is doubtful if the party will openly favour any candidate. Both Bafarawa and Lawal, the chairman of the coordination committee, may have their candidates as individuals. But I doubt if they are ready to borrow a leaf from their predecessor in 1999, Senator Mahmud Waziri, or from the PDP where the party will damn the consequences and adopt undemocratic measures. PDP, it is clear to them, has cards they can rely upon in the presidential elections which the ANPP does not have. I heard Bafarawa reiterating that ANPP is a party for all Nigerians. So there is no zoning; every member is free to contest. That was a big effort, for there have been many ‘influential people’ who tried to lure the ANPP leadership into adopting such undemocratic stand, simply to ‘outzone’ Buhari out of the contest.
The party also resisted the advise of a consensus candidate which the same influential people have tried to sell. It has maintained, with Bafarawa swearing by God, that it will stage free and fair primaries, and advising all aspirants to go to the delegates and solicit for votes.
Buhari may not be contesting against ten candidates. Some of them may be convinced to align in order to defeat him. Some will definitely stick to their guns. Few may drop out in fear of wasting their N10 million in a gamble they have never contemplated winning. That is only how much I will divulge. The rest should come after the primaries.
AD
The AD will wait until after the primaries of the PDP. If Obasanjo wins the ticket of the PDP, AD will not field a candidate. They will rather align with PDP, or to put it more precisely, choose to work for their incumbent tribesman, than come out with another who will reduce his chance of winning the presidential election. If – and this ‘if’ is very unlikely as we have seen – Obasanjo loses the primaries, then, as one of the fallouts of that loss, AD will overnight punish the PDP by presenting a candidate who will deny it the block votes of the Southwest. That will be in addition to the punishment that Obasanjo will mete on the party – denying it incumbency.
New Parties
The old parties will dominate the scene in the forthcoming elections, at all levels. New parties are very unlikely to make any impact in 2003. Most of them will try to align with one of the old ones. For example, if Balarabe Musa is serious about his support for Obasanjo, we expect his PRP to align with the PDP. For a doyen of progressive politics, that will be the steepest retrogression, with y at infinity and x at 0.
It is now clear that even NDP and UNDP have been unable to garner support from the Nigerian public. This is partly because people see them as creations of Babangida, “a cross” which Saleh Jambo, the leader of UNDP, was frank enough to confess that “they must carry.” Calling the cross suggests that the NDP and the UNDP may fail three times as did the career of the first cross (Peace be Upon Him).
Last week, the Weekly Trust carried a cover titled “IBB’s Game Plan.” I disagree with their entire analysis. It is surprising that a paper like it cannot see clearly the ongoing decline and fall of the IBB empire, to borrow from the celebrated title of Edward Gibbon. The influence of IBB has been declining since he left power in 1993, except for the one year tenure of Abdulsalami. No doubt IBB was powerful as a Head of State and President for reasons we have mentioned in our earlier discourses. But once out of it, and without an ally like Abdulsalami who put government machinery at the disposal of IBB, virtually all IBB’s calculations and intrigues failed, especially within the present PDP.
IBB, in spite of what Kabiru Gaya said, will not run in 2003. I have said it before and I will say it again, times without number. One, it is against his material interest. Two, it is against his nature to undertake a real contest because he will stand the risk of self-demystification. I cannot see him running against Buhari, a popular candidate and/or Obasanjo, an incumbent. Moreover, Obasanjo is a strong ally against whom IBB has promised never to contest in an election.
The most likely thing to happen is that IBB will make NDP and UNDP swallow their pride and back Obasanjo, especially if Buhari emerges as the flag bearer of ANPP. IBB is closer to Obasanjo than he is to Buhari. In fact, as I have once said, IBB’s candidate is Obasanjo. Events since Buhari joined politics have clearly shown that he will need the assistance of IBB in 2003 as much as he will need that of Obasanjo.
Finally, hardly will NDP or UNDP succeed in procuring a credible candidate from the North neither one who will defeat Obasanjo nor another who will be ready to go down in history as the mercenary who subverted the chances of Buhari. Marwa for one, contrary to the report of Weekly Trust and some other journalists, will never do this dirty job.
The other new parties will only be successful in serving as bottlenecks against the administration of a smooth transition. They are right now insisting that INEC’s timetable is inimical to their constitutional rights. If we listen to them we are going to end up in anarchy. They should rather face the challenge before them, of going to local governments and states and gather people that will support them at the grassroots. Each of them should map out localities where it is likely to make an impact, particularly at the local government level and secure its chairmanship. One or two may even aim at defeating an incumbent ANPP governor or so. There is a small window though, by which the parties may also sit, watching and waiting for any aggrieved aspirant to jump in from the PDP or ANPP primaries. But, nothing more. 2007 should be the goal of those among them that survive the harsh Saharan weather of opposition politics.
Conclusion
That is my idea for the primaries. I am not 100% sure that everything will work out this way. It is not an indulgence in the unseen but an effort to discern the future, using common knowledge. God knows best. Whatever it is now, the situation in the dominant parties will be known in the next two weeks, and in all within a month. Then you can say whether I was accurate or not. Then, also, we can go forward and start talking about the general election, about what forces are likely to work in favour of this or that candidate, and possibly, even predict before hand, the occupant of Aso Rock, come May 29, 2002.
________________________
In fact, as I have once said, IBB’s candidate is Obasanjo. Events since Buhari joined politics have clearly shown that he will need the assistance of IBB in 2003 as much as he will need that of Obasanjo.
Locating 2003 in Bermuda Triangle
Locating 2003 in Bermuda Triangle
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.comnfo
The long awaited voters registration exercise is over. It has left the country united on the conclusion that it was an absolute failure, another in a series we have become inundated with since 1999. This is the testimony of everybody, including commissioners of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). One of them lamented over the BBC Africa Service how he could not register throughout the twelve days that the exercise lasted.
Arithmetic
If an INEC commissioner was unable to register his name, how many other Nigerians were left out of the exercise? How many missing registration slips or cards are missing? Though there is no official figure, the following arithmetic will nevertheless be useful. INEC has used the projected estimates of the National Population Commission to provide for 60 million eligible voters. Nevertheless, INEC claims that it has disbursed about 70 million registration cards. To begin with, therefore, there are 10 million cards missing.
From the spread and volume of complaints, we can safely assume a conservative figure of a quarter of total eligible voters who have not registered, that is giving INEC 75% success. (I doubt if the commission can grant itself a greater percentage, knowing very well that it has never portrayed the gift of an exceptionally brilliant student!) A quarter of 60 million is N12 million. If we add this figure to the extra 10 million provided by INEC, we have 22 million registration cards missing. With the loss of this amount of cards, 2003, I believe, election has taken a Bermuda dimension.
Twenty-two million is a large figure in a population where we do not expect more than 55 million will turnout for voting i.e. 91.7%, a record figure in the history of liberal democracy. Twenty-two million is 40% of the number the figure. The implication of this is that whichever party has the biggest share of the 22 million missing votes will definitely emerge the winner in the next presidential election. The same analogy will apply at the state and local government level. Let us remember that the difference between the two most contending candidates in 2003 will hardly be up to 10 million votes, for many reasons. It is likely to be a contest between an incumbent and a popular candidate, with incumbency trying to match popularity, or vice-versa. It is even more frightening that Obasanjo, who in 1999 had the full support of the Abdulsalami administration, became the President with only 15 million votes.
PDP
Let us go further by attempting to share the missing votes between the parties. We will use two simple universal rules: to each according to his need and ability, and to whom much is given much is expected.
The PDP here must be ready to acknowledge the possession of at least half the missing votes for the following reasons. It has the greatest ability, the greatest need and has taken the lion share in our democracy. I will explain myself.
One, it claims to be the largest party in Africa; it has a greater spread both vertically and horizontally. So we agree that in Africa there are only two parties: PDP and others. It has the President and the highest number of governors, members of the National Assembly and state houses of assembly. So wherever in the country the UFOs of the missing cards go flying, at least half of them cannot miss landing in one PDP hand or the other.
With this statistics also, the PDP has more at stake than other parties. It forms the federal government, meaning an almost total control over the economy. Therefore, it has more to lose. Its need will be stronger because men are more stimulated by the instinct to protect a possession than by the desire of acquisition. That is the need.
Then the ability. Acquiring the missing cards require money. And who has money more than the PDP? Tell me, my dear reader, which party do you know, other than the PDP, which can afford the luxury of spending N120million over a three-day in-country resort? Which party has access to the largest contracts of government? Which party has a candidate that was reported early this year by the newspapers to have accumulated over N32billion for his presidential campaign?
Finally, members of INEC and all the resident electoral commissioners are members of the PDP. Period. The 50% is therefore a conservative estimate of PDP shares in the missing cards corporation. Goubadia, according to Thisday, has admitted that “officials must have colluded with unscrupulous persons to divert the materials for purposes other than which they are meant.” There you are.
It is here I will narrate a sweet story to prove that even the ordinary man on the street has a good judgement of the enviable capacity of the PDP to acquire the cards. A state cabinet commissioner was touring registration centres in his state. At one of the centres, he was approached by a youth carrying 14 registration slips which he brought out from his pocket. He offered them to the commissioner saying, “Oga, you may wish to buy them for the PDP.” Of course everybody laughed and Oga rejected the offer. But the people around believed that if Oga were alone with the chap, nothing would have prevented him from taking it!
Other parties
But PDP is not alone. Other parties and individuals were equally hospitable to the missing cards. Together with the PDP they share the desire to rig but their lesser political fortune could accord them only a second position. So, limited by fate and capacity, the other parties – APP, AD, APGA and UNPP/NDP – have to scramble over the other half, i.e. maximum of 12.5% each. I am assuming that UNPP/NDP are the same. I have allotted them an equal share because though APP and AD have governors and other representatives, the three newly registered parties, but especially UNPP and NDP, are desperate for success at all levels. Their failure to perform well in any coming election means nailing the coffin of their financier and founder politically. One of them is so desperate that in Jigawa State it is promoting its party with the name of a popular presidential candidate belonging to another party.
Implication
This arithmetic will let PDP 11 million votes. Now, if the PDP is allowed to successfully get its share of the missing votes through the electoral process may not need any vote from the public to win the presidential contest. Let us not forget, I repeat, that Obasanjo became the President in 1999 with only 15 million votes. But that was when there were only two contestants. In 2003 there is most likely going to be three or four contestants and the number of winning votes will drastically be smaller than 15 million, perhaps less than the 11 million we estimated to be in the hands of the PDP. Therefore the issue now is that if the status quo is maintained, 2003 elections have already been rigged. Shi ke nan.
INEC is assuring people that everybody will be registered before the next elections. But the issue at hand is not registration really. How can we hold any election when we know that millions of registration cards were stolen? What difference does it make if tomorrow INEC registers more voters but with these millions of cards still missing? How are we sure that in the update exercise, more cards will not be missing? The bitter truth that Nigerians must accept is that we have reached the bottom of the abyss. I do not see this crisis ending. This is the bottom.
What options do we have then? All our options must first accommodate the capabilities and inadequacies of INEC. So far it has said nothing about the missing cards besides waiting for the computer to do its magic of throwing out any duplicate entry and warning people that “the law stipulating the commission had stipulated “a fine of N100,000 or one year imprisonment or both for anyone who illegally possesses or diverts any registration material.” What is N100,000 to criminals that possess billions? The President – the commander in chief not only of the armed forces but also of the fight against corruption – is silent on the matter. “And her silence is her acceptance.”
Whether the computers will really be allowed to play the validation game honestly in Nigeria is also in doubt. This is a country where technology, like humans, could be persuaded to prefer doing the wrong or decline doing the right. In addition, over 70% of the staff operating the computers come from the same ethnic group as the commander in chief. So relying on the computers may not be the best. It might be worse in fact. If America could abandon the computer in its last presidential election and resort to manual counting, how could Nigerians trust the South African-trained INEC ‘gurus’ to use the computer fraud free? Ulterior motives aside, many of the cards will be smeared since Nigerians are not used to using fingerprints for purposes like registration.
What do you think will happen if the voters register is tendered for public verification tomorrow and the majority of names in a ward, local government, state or region is missing, perhaps due to the same ‘printer’s devil’ that once attempted to forge the Electoral Act? In this case, does not the computer give more room for further disenfranchisement on basis of party, region, religion or ethnicity? Already we have cases in some cities where some people are complaining that they were denied registration because of such differences. If I may ask, why did INEC in the first place print over 10 million extra cards? In ba rami, me ya kawo maganan rami, inji makaho.
At any rate, INEC must realize that any person, party or government that has stolen the registration slips intends to use them during the next election. They did not steal millions of cards for fun. They must have calculated how to beat the system and use them to acquire votes with which they will stuff the ballot boxes or the result spreadsheet on election day. When it comes to malpractice the world has conceded to us the fame of first position. It has rated us the second most corrupt corner on the planet. We may sit down and wonder how this will take place. But if we do not fight it now, we will be surprised to know, at a high price then, that it is after all possible.
What do we do then? First, I believe that rather than follow the shadow of Ghali this is an area where Obasanjo can prove the seriousness of his anti-corruption campaign. Let him give the police and the state security agents a free hand to pursue the perpetrators of this crime. It is easy. Start with Goubadia, the INEC chief. Let him account for all the votes his commission delivered from its press. From there they should move to the next in the chain of command until they reach each registration centre. Let each officer be held accountable for whatever he is given or whatever forgery is discovered in his domain of authority. So far we have not heard about the interrogation of Goubadia or any of his federal and state resident commissioners.
Once the criminals are discovered, and they are in thousands, they should be punished according to the law. Anything short of this measure will only guarantee the recurrence of the same fraud every time the commission sets out to register voters or conduct election.
Secondly, INEC should start thinking of cancelling the last registration exercise. But if it does so, what can it do instead? Someone is suggesting that it simply updates the 1999 register, adjusting it to accommodate migrating families and maturing teenagers. This may not be fraud-proof, but it is worth considering.
The greatest constraint here is time. And this is the doing of the federal government. The registration is supposed to take place over a year ago such that the commission would have enough time to check and cross check its register. It would have even had the opportunity, if necessary, to repeat the exercise, as a situation like the present would demand. Unfortunately, we are blessed with a regime that has no regard to priority and which is keenly interested in succeeding itself through whatever means possible. To interfere with the duties of INEC and to delay the disbursement of its funds appear to be part of its strategy towards self-succession.
Many people will come up with different suggestions. The House of Representative is asking for the sacking of Goubadia. I agree that the guy has failed, repeatedly. But do we expect better? No. It will be Obasanjo again who will nominate the successor to Goubadia. And from the history of his nominations, the President will definitely choose from among his in laws or among his camp of party loyalist. So nothing will change, after Goubadia.
No matter the variety of our proposals, none of them will be effective if two conditions that we earlier mentioned are not met, i.e. probing INEC and applying deterrent.
In addition, people still need to be educated that hoarding cards will only subvert the process. I will quickly add here that the first person to be educated on that are those who presently hold political offices, including the President who is keen in manipulating INEC. They must know that if they are not capable of holding free and fair elections next year, the alternative pill will hardly be sweeter than that which their predecessors swallowed twenty years ago.
We need to briefly mention why Nigerians or their leaders went this far for the first time in the history of their politics. We cannot help pointing an accusing finger at the Obasanjo administration. It created the atmosphere of apprehension by its actions and inactions. In everything to do with INEC and its operations the government has manipulated the commission to its advantage. The basis for this is the fear that it has lost the support it had in 1999 through its partiality and incompetence. Yet, it is bent on succeeding itself.
Actually the then military administration was responsible for perfect all the arrangements for the PDP to emerge as winner in 1999. Many of the PDP governors, local government chairmen and members of legislature did not win their elections. It was rigged to favour. As for Obasanjo, all sorts of tricks and threats were used to ensure his success.
That is now history. There is no Abdulsalami in government to tailor the election in favour of Obasanjo. So Obasanjo has to do the rigging himself. That is why from the appointment of INEC officials to the timing of its operations, he does everything that will favour his party and himself in particular.
People have lost confidence in a government that cannot be fair or which is incapable of restraining itself from serving as bad example. If other parties or individuals have participated in diversion of registration cards they are doing so only because they have lost the confidence that there will be any justice in the system.
That has been the history of our elections. Sadly, Obasanjo, instead of mitigating it by behaving like the statesman we thought he was, has carried the fraud further by aggravating our fears. We have never had a history of missing registration slips. Today, out of desperation, the present administration has made not only our registration cards but also our hopes on 2003 to disappear somewhere in the Bermuda triangle of incumbency politics.
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.comnfo
The long awaited voters registration exercise is over. It has left the country united on the conclusion that it was an absolute failure, another in a series we have become inundated with since 1999. This is the testimony of everybody, including commissioners of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). One of them lamented over the BBC Africa Service how he could not register throughout the twelve days that the exercise lasted.
Arithmetic
If an INEC commissioner was unable to register his name, how many other Nigerians were left out of the exercise? How many missing registration slips or cards are missing? Though there is no official figure, the following arithmetic will nevertheless be useful. INEC has used the projected estimates of the National Population Commission to provide for 60 million eligible voters. Nevertheless, INEC claims that it has disbursed about 70 million registration cards. To begin with, therefore, there are 10 million cards missing.
From the spread and volume of complaints, we can safely assume a conservative figure of a quarter of total eligible voters who have not registered, that is giving INEC 75% success. (I doubt if the commission can grant itself a greater percentage, knowing very well that it has never portrayed the gift of an exceptionally brilliant student!) A quarter of 60 million is N12 million. If we add this figure to the extra 10 million provided by INEC, we have 22 million registration cards missing. With the loss of this amount of cards, 2003, I believe, election has taken a Bermuda dimension.
Twenty-two million is a large figure in a population where we do not expect more than 55 million will turnout for voting i.e. 91.7%, a record figure in the history of liberal democracy. Twenty-two million is 40% of the number the figure. The implication of this is that whichever party has the biggest share of the 22 million missing votes will definitely emerge the winner in the next presidential election. The same analogy will apply at the state and local government level. Let us remember that the difference between the two most contending candidates in 2003 will hardly be up to 10 million votes, for many reasons. It is likely to be a contest between an incumbent and a popular candidate, with incumbency trying to match popularity, or vice-versa. It is even more frightening that Obasanjo, who in 1999 had the full support of the Abdulsalami administration, became the President with only 15 million votes.
PDP
Let us go further by attempting to share the missing votes between the parties. We will use two simple universal rules: to each according to his need and ability, and to whom much is given much is expected.
The PDP here must be ready to acknowledge the possession of at least half the missing votes for the following reasons. It has the greatest ability, the greatest need and has taken the lion share in our democracy. I will explain myself.
One, it claims to be the largest party in Africa; it has a greater spread both vertically and horizontally. So we agree that in Africa there are only two parties: PDP and others. It has the President and the highest number of governors, members of the National Assembly and state houses of assembly. So wherever in the country the UFOs of the missing cards go flying, at least half of them cannot miss landing in one PDP hand or the other.
With this statistics also, the PDP has more at stake than other parties. It forms the federal government, meaning an almost total control over the economy. Therefore, it has more to lose. Its need will be stronger because men are more stimulated by the instinct to protect a possession than by the desire of acquisition. That is the need.
Then the ability. Acquiring the missing cards require money. And who has money more than the PDP? Tell me, my dear reader, which party do you know, other than the PDP, which can afford the luxury of spending N120million over a three-day in-country resort? Which party has access to the largest contracts of government? Which party has a candidate that was reported early this year by the newspapers to have accumulated over N32billion for his presidential campaign?
Finally, members of INEC and all the resident electoral commissioners are members of the PDP. Period. The 50% is therefore a conservative estimate of PDP shares in the missing cards corporation. Goubadia, according to Thisday, has admitted that “officials must have colluded with unscrupulous persons to divert the materials for purposes other than which they are meant.” There you are.
It is here I will narrate a sweet story to prove that even the ordinary man on the street has a good judgement of the enviable capacity of the PDP to acquire the cards. A state cabinet commissioner was touring registration centres in his state. At one of the centres, he was approached by a youth carrying 14 registration slips which he brought out from his pocket. He offered them to the commissioner saying, “Oga, you may wish to buy them for the PDP.” Of course everybody laughed and Oga rejected the offer. But the people around believed that if Oga were alone with the chap, nothing would have prevented him from taking it!
Other parties
But PDP is not alone. Other parties and individuals were equally hospitable to the missing cards. Together with the PDP they share the desire to rig but their lesser political fortune could accord them only a second position. So, limited by fate and capacity, the other parties – APP, AD, APGA and UNPP/NDP – have to scramble over the other half, i.e. maximum of 12.5% each. I am assuming that UNPP/NDP are the same. I have allotted them an equal share because though APP and AD have governors and other representatives, the three newly registered parties, but especially UNPP and NDP, are desperate for success at all levels. Their failure to perform well in any coming election means nailing the coffin of their financier and founder politically. One of them is so desperate that in Jigawa State it is promoting its party with the name of a popular presidential candidate belonging to another party.
Implication
This arithmetic will let PDP 11 million votes. Now, if the PDP is allowed to successfully get its share of the missing votes through the electoral process may not need any vote from the public to win the presidential contest. Let us not forget, I repeat, that Obasanjo became the President in 1999 with only 15 million votes. But that was when there were only two contestants. In 2003 there is most likely going to be three or four contestants and the number of winning votes will drastically be smaller than 15 million, perhaps less than the 11 million we estimated to be in the hands of the PDP. Therefore the issue now is that if the status quo is maintained, 2003 elections have already been rigged. Shi ke nan.
INEC is assuring people that everybody will be registered before the next elections. But the issue at hand is not registration really. How can we hold any election when we know that millions of registration cards were stolen? What difference does it make if tomorrow INEC registers more voters but with these millions of cards still missing? How are we sure that in the update exercise, more cards will not be missing? The bitter truth that Nigerians must accept is that we have reached the bottom of the abyss. I do not see this crisis ending. This is the bottom.
What options do we have then? All our options must first accommodate the capabilities and inadequacies of INEC. So far it has said nothing about the missing cards besides waiting for the computer to do its magic of throwing out any duplicate entry and warning people that “the law stipulating the commission had stipulated “a fine of N100,000 or one year imprisonment or both for anyone who illegally possesses or diverts any registration material.” What is N100,000 to criminals that possess billions? The President – the commander in chief not only of the armed forces but also of the fight against corruption – is silent on the matter. “And her silence is her acceptance.”
Whether the computers will really be allowed to play the validation game honestly in Nigeria is also in doubt. This is a country where technology, like humans, could be persuaded to prefer doing the wrong or decline doing the right. In addition, over 70% of the staff operating the computers come from the same ethnic group as the commander in chief. So relying on the computers may not be the best. It might be worse in fact. If America could abandon the computer in its last presidential election and resort to manual counting, how could Nigerians trust the South African-trained INEC ‘gurus’ to use the computer fraud free? Ulterior motives aside, many of the cards will be smeared since Nigerians are not used to using fingerprints for purposes like registration.
What do you think will happen if the voters register is tendered for public verification tomorrow and the majority of names in a ward, local government, state or region is missing, perhaps due to the same ‘printer’s devil’ that once attempted to forge the Electoral Act? In this case, does not the computer give more room for further disenfranchisement on basis of party, region, religion or ethnicity? Already we have cases in some cities where some people are complaining that they were denied registration because of such differences. If I may ask, why did INEC in the first place print over 10 million extra cards? In ba rami, me ya kawo maganan rami, inji makaho.
At any rate, INEC must realize that any person, party or government that has stolen the registration slips intends to use them during the next election. They did not steal millions of cards for fun. They must have calculated how to beat the system and use them to acquire votes with which they will stuff the ballot boxes or the result spreadsheet on election day. When it comes to malpractice the world has conceded to us the fame of first position. It has rated us the second most corrupt corner on the planet. We may sit down and wonder how this will take place. But if we do not fight it now, we will be surprised to know, at a high price then, that it is after all possible.
What do we do then? First, I believe that rather than follow the shadow of Ghali this is an area where Obasanjo can prove the seriousness of his anti-corruption campaign. Let him give the police and the state security agents a free hand to pursue the perpetrators of this crime. It is easy. Start with Goubadia, the INEC chief. Let him account for all the votes his commission delivered from its press. From there they should move to the next in the chain of command until they reach each registration centre. Let each officer be held accountable for whatever he is given or whatever forgery is discovered in his domain of authority. So far we have not heard about the interrogation of Goubadia or any of his federal and state resident commissioners.
Once the criminals are discovered, and they are in thousands, they should be punished according to the law. Anything short of this measure will only guarantee the recurrence of the same fraud every time the commission sets out to register voters or conduct election.
Secondly, INEC should start thinking of cancelling the last registration exercise. But if it does so, what can it do instead? Someone is suggesting that it simply updates the 1999 register, adjusting it to accommodate migrating families and maturing teenagers. This may not be fraud-proof, but it is worth considering.
The greatest constraint here is time. And this is the doing of the federal government. The registration is supposed to take place over a year ago such that the commission would have enough time to check and cross check its register. It would have even had the opportunity, if necessary, to repeat the exercise, as a situation like the present would demand. Unfortunately, we are blessed with a regime that has no regard to priority and which is keenly interested in succeeding itself through whatever means possible. To interfere with the duties of INEC and to delay the disbursement of its funds appear to be part of its strategy towards self-succession.
Many people will come up with different suggestions. The House of Representative is asking for the sacking of Goubadia. I agree that the guy has failed, repeatedly. But do we expect better? No. It will be Obasanjo again who will nominate the successor to Goubadia. And from the history of his nominations, the President will definitely choose from among his in laws or among his camp of party loyalist. So nothing will change, after Goubadia.
No matter the variety of our proposals, none of them will be effective if two conditions that we earlier mentioned are not met, i.e. probing INEC and applying deterrent.
In addition, people still need to be educated that hoarding cards will only subvert the process. I will quickly add here that the first person to be educated on that are those who presently hold political offices, including the President who is keen in manipulating INEC. They must know that if they are not capable of holding free and fair elections next year, the alternative pill will hardly be sweeter than that which their predecessors swallowed twenty years ago.
We need to briefly mention why Nigerians or their leaders went this far for the first time in the history of their politics. We cannot help pointing an accusing finger at the Obasanjo administration. It created the atmosphere of apprehension by its actions and inactions. In everything to do with INEC and its operations the government has manipulated the commission to its advantage. The basis for this is the fear that it has lost the support it had in 1999 through its partiality and incompetence. Yet, it is bent on succeeding itself.
Actually the then military administration was responsible for perfect all the arrangements for the PDP to emerge as winner in 1999. Many of the PDP governors, local government chairmen and members of legislature did not win their elections. It was rigged to favour. As for Obasanjo, all sorts of tricks and threats were used to ensure his success.
That is now history. There is no Abdulsalami in government to tailor the election in favour of Obasanjo. So Obasanjo has to do the rigging himself. That is why from the appointment of INEC officials to the timing of its operations, he does everything that will favour his party and himself in particular.
People have lost confidence in a government that cannot be fair or which is incapable of restraining itself from serving as bad example. If other parties or individuals have participated in diversion of registration cards they are doing so only because they have lost the confidence that there will be any justice in the system.
That has been the history of our elections. Sadly, Obasanjo, instead of mitigating it by behaving like the statesman we thought he was, has carried the fraud further by aggravating our fears. We have never had a history of missing registration slips. Today, out of desperation, the present administration has made not only our registration cards but also our hopes on 2003 to disappear somewhere in the Bermuda triangle of incumbency politics.
I am the Incumbent, Who Can Defeat Me?
I am the Incumbent. Who Can Defeat Me?
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
Nigerians are getting on my nerves. Right now world leaders like me are meeting in Johannesburg. I cannot be there. This boy Ghali and his group in the House are trying to birdcage me. They are mistaken. They do not know who and what Baba Iyabo is. I am the President. The Commander in Chief. The Oga kpata kpata for Nigeria. Olusegun Mathew Okikiola Aremu Obasanjo. I command. Nigerians follow.
I am the one and only who walked straight from Prison to the Presidency. On request. On my own terms. I am free to rule the way I like. Nigerians need me. I can tell them, even as bombs were killing their sons and daughters, that I have no business being with them. My constituency is beyond Nigeria. Beyond. I belong to the international community. Whether I do fine or not, write anything, say anything. Na you sabi. You asked for it. You made a prisoner a President. You got it.
I am here. Aso Rock. I will be here until 2007. And beyond, if I like. No Mandela option. No impeachment. No handing over. All it requires is resources to win election and change the constitution. After all, I am the best thing that has ever happened to this country. If I am not the president, this country will pack up. It will tear apart.
I can do whatever I like. I cannot be asked. Only I can ask. I have constituted a committee to investigate the accounts of the National Assembly and some ministries. The same day, the House moved a motion to impeach me on grounds of contravening constitutional provisions. They cannot question me. If they do, they have committed treason. It is a coup. They should be expelled from the party. They should be arrested. Questions are my exclusive prerogative.
Impeachment. I know the people in the House. They know me. Whenever their pockets are dry, it is then they make a lot of noise. They send me threats. I send them money. They keep quiet. I go on with business as usual. Even now, I will do the same. They have plenty threats to issue. I have plenty money to dish out. The equation is balanced. This threat is small.
2003. I will continue. I was not defeated before. I cannot be defeated now. No one knows the extent of my resources except I. No Nigerian can defeat me, because no Nigerian is incumbent, other than me. That puts me in a special position of advantage. Like other presidents before. Like other African leaders. Winning an election is not about performance or voting. It is resources. After all, I came out of prison koboless and I won election. Now I command over seventy percent of the Nigerian economy. How can I be defeated? Nigerians are ingrates. They have forgotten about the difficult past because of the joyful present. Look at fuel everywhere. Money everywhere. There is no hunger. It is sabotage to claim so.
The oyinbo said that percentage of Nigerians living under poverty has risen from 45% during Abacha to over 70% now. Nigerians should thank me. If it were someone else as the leader, it would have reached 120%. They should not bother that 70% of Nigerians live on $1 per day; over 90% live on $2 per day. After all, 70% better pass 45%. Mtsss. Oyinbo na Mumu.
My critics do not know God. I sabi God pass dem. Na God tell me say make I contest 2003. At Ota. That is why I arrested Pastor Bakari. He lied against God. Then Nigerians again came and begged me to continue. Lar talk say the whole middle belt, 100%, is behind me. Only Arewa, na dem no gree. But let them know that it is resources, not number, that determines elections in Nigeria. If they are in doubt, they should listen to the following. They are what we call incumbency in Nigeria.
Resources
The presidential race is 100 meters dash. I am already 99 meters ahead of other contestants. They have to start from the scratch. From point zero. Any contestant who has resources cannot contest against me, because I will probe his source of money, seize it, and imprison him. So only contestants without money can risk the foolishness of contesting with me. He will not defeat me because anyone with resources will be afraid to contribute to his campaign. You see?
Let me tell you the extent of my resources. First, If economy is life, I can give it and take it away. I sign every kobo, determine where it goes and for what purpose it will be used. I can withhold it, even if it is police salaries, salaries of magistrates, allocations of the National Assembly, etc. I can change the allocation formula by executive order. I can use dozens of billions on national ID cards and allocate only N3billion to agriculture, though it is the source of income of 70% of the population. I can give contracts at any rate I wish. Look at the contracts documents of extension of the National Assembly complex, the Abuja stadium, the cost of roads rehabilitation, of which we have completed several thousands of kilometres. Compare them with those of PTF. They are only six times more, if what Anenih told the world last year was correct. You will then know that I am an executive president.
So talking about money, you cannot beat me. Thisday has earlier reported that my campaign team has piled N32 billion as at the last year. That is an old figure. Jare. Money is not my problem. I have many well wishers. I have given so many contracts. And the oyinbo say, to whosoever much is given, much is expected. Scratch my back. I scratch yours. Have my opponents got any contract to give? How much do they have in their campaign account, right now? Central Bank governor, watch their accounts closely.
With this huge amount, I can buy any Nigerian. Cash down. Call him: oba, emir, professor, general, wife, husband, kai, everybody. I will pay every polling agent, going officer, returning officer, electoral commissioner, and every one. How much can my opponent afford? Who can they buy?
Law
INEC. I write the electoral law in this country. I dictate the rules. The other time, I tampered with the electoral act. So what? I am the President. You can only shout. You can do nothing. I appoint all members of INEC. Whether you say Goubadia is my in-law or not, I do not care. He must do what I want him to do, when to do it, how to do it. If I like I will give him the money for voters register, after finishing my scheming. If he complains, I sack him. After all, he cannot complain. In the same way, I have appointed resident electoral commissioners. They are all PDP people, or those who have vowed to do business with me.
With this, I can determine the number of registration cards going to each place. Where I have supporters, like Lagos, I can send them over 6million registration cards, making everybody there an eligible voter; Bakassi, more than 100,000; but Bede, only 20,000, instead of 100,000. In any case, these northerners are lazy. Give them short notice for the registration, pair it with ID card, send few registration cards to opposition areas, and ask many questions, including the pictures of their wives. They will abandon the exercise.
Elections. When election comes, every electoral commissioner will report to INEC not less than the figures we require from his state, according to our pre-election computation. The worst my enemies can do is to appeal to the electoral tribunal. Tribunal? No election tribunal can listen to a case against me. They did not succeed in 1999 when I was not in power. How can they succeed today? I will learn from Abdulsalami how he made me president. As a late friend told his disciples, win the election anyhow first. Let the loser go to court, you will remain the winner. Which tribunal judge will decline N1 billion? After all, I make the appointments. I will not be a fool to leave a stone-headed judge on it.
I will determine whether any election takes place or not. The local government election is an example. I do not owe you any explanation as to why it could not hold on 10 August. I cannot be questioned. Therefore, no apology. And if I am not voted for, Nigeria should be ready to pay for the consequences. I am not scared of any coup. The Americans are here. They are my protectors. I can declare state of emergency and postpone the election using one excuse or another. There is no limit to what I can do.
Police. I have the law enforcement agents in my pocket. Remember I did not need to even follow the constitution in the appointment of the Inspector General of police. I am the constitution. I can change the police commissioners just before the elections. They must obey my command or risk losing their jobs. How can I even post my enemies there. All of them, like the electoral commissioners must be mine. 100%.
So whichever way you look at it, I am the law. I determine what it will be, who will use it, who will enforce it, and who will adjudicate on disputes regarding it. They must submit to my will, come 2003. But that is not the full measure of my strength.
Influence
Money and law aside. Who has a quarter of my influence as President and Commander-in-Chief with over 100 personal assistants and advisers who are ready to carry out my command. I am free to recruit them to do any of my campaign jobs. I do not have to fend for them. The government, by virtue of their position, does it. I have my loyal Vice-President who also has another battalion of assistants and advisers. He does not pay them salaries from his pocket, buy or fuel their cars. The government does so.
Imagine my over 40 ministers and their personal assistants. Each minister is controlling a budget of billions that must be carefully expended in ways that will further my re-election bid. There are hundreds of permanents secretaries, director-generals and directors, each praying for the day he will be invited for a dinner at Aso Rock, to receive my instructions and carry them out with the promptness of Big Ben.
Examples are my ministers of finance and of works and housing. They are my campaign managers. You see. Do I need to appoint a different campaign manager, putting him on a salary, housing him in Abuja, buying a jeep for him and so on? Ciroma is there, as well as Mr. Fix it. They can fix whatever I want with the abundant resources in their control. I am yet to sign a single check on my campaign and things are moving well. One of them awards all the billion-naira contracts in his ministry; the other finances them. Why should the funding of my campaign be a problem then?
And remember that in terms of strategy I have the best brains. It is by no coincidence that I chose Ciroma as the national coordinator of my campaign. He was among the topmost four in NPN during the Second Republic. He can still remember what it took to win a moonslide victory in 1983. Mr. Fix it is there also to fix any knotty officer or stubborn judge.
I also have the security agents with me. The other time they quizzed Ghali Na-Abba for at least two hours. It is his fault. How can he destabilize Nigeria by threatening to impeach the president? From this logic, you might as well ask why should anyone attempt to destabilize Nigeria by defeating me at the polls? If any influential figure tries to support my opponent, they will intimidate him with his past record, and he will yield. Every conversation of my opponents can be recorded and passed to me or to my campaign team. My opponent does not control a single security agent; he has no NITEL; and can never tap a single sentence from our conversations. I can block every move of his. Even if he wants to rent an office, I can find a way of frustrating his effort by offering three times the amount settled, or intimidate the landlord by blocking his contract payments and so on.
Every presidential candidate needs support in the states. I have the governors behind me, out of fear or persuasion. I have a file on each of them. All their cuwa-cuwa is here. In fact, I can smell corruption in their offices, as I sit here in Aso Rock. The anti-corruption tribunal is there. All of them, except one or two I think, are afraid of being arraigned before it. I determined the powers and composition of the tribunal, finance it and, therefore, I am free to dictate who appears before it, when and on what charge. They must therefore support my candidature at the convention, with all their commissioners, assistants and advisers, and chairmen of boards.
Right now, I did not pay for the billboards and other expenses for my campaign in the states. Why should I? All of them are coming here seeking for my support, and pleading that I do not field any opponent against them. I said agreed. But they must go back and prove that their states are behind me. That is why they are competing in inviting me to their states to witness that they have delivered their states. Kwankwaso invited Atiku. I was there too. Kano is a good town, except that they have stubborn children. Dem sabi stones o. Abi dem train for Palestine?
And my power, through the governors, has reached the local government level. They have appointed caretaker committees to run the councils. Aha. Again, each chairman, who must have proved to be a loyalist, has been briefed on his assignment and he is already doing his best to ensure that his governor and Obasanjo sun zarce. My opponents do not control over a single governor or a single local government chairman. How can they defeat me?
The Press. Finally. What about them? I know them. Brown envelopes kawai. I have many of them, including green, yellow and red ones. It depends on the type of journalist. That is why they have been silent about my inadequacies. Moreover, most of them are my tribesmen. Those from other places cannot afford to print anything against me. They live in Lagos. OPC can takul them.
Government press is already singing my praises and blocking my opponents. They must. Tune to network news, on FRCN and NTA. All the news must be filtered, such that nothing, no matter how factual, is said against me. In fact, it must all be about me, where I went, what I said or what my government has achieved. And the achievements of my government are many! (Garri is N100 per measure. Maize is over N3,500 a sac. There is no hunger. No poverty. The dollar is N140. Everybody is getting paid on time. All old roads have been rehabilitated and thousands of kilometres of new ones have been constructed. The economy has never been better. The morale in the army is very high. Etc.) My opponents are denied airtime. Ask Rimi. He thinks N12 million is enough to overcome my power at FRCN Kaduna. Leave him. He does not know the power of the incumbent. Before I knew it, Jerry Gana, or Ghana, has already fixed him.
As the NPN did in 1982 and 1983, I am establishing dozens of FM stations all over the federation. Do you think I do not know that the four FRCN stations can reach everywhere in the country or that the states do not have their local stations? I do. What you fail to understand is that no chances should be taken. After all, would not the contract of establishing them serve as another avenue to enrich some of my political associates? Like the controversial supply of equipment done by the NTA Director-General. Why should I probe him? It is better to create a friend than an enemy. What can Yusuf Mamman do? Nigeria is not Kenya, after all. They have their price; we have ours, even if the manufacturer is the same. They are poor; we are rich.
Conclusion
That is it. Too bad for my opponents. Nigeria has to wait until I agree to change the constitution to warrant only one 5-year tenure for the presidency. Then the problem of incumbency can be mitigated.
That is why all northern political leaders contacted to contest against me refused to be persuaded to do so, including all their long distance presidential aspirants. Rimi has been playing with fire. I will defeat him at the primaries. I will takul Na-Abba after the impeachment problem. My men will sponsor a motion to sack him as leader of the House.
Don’t mind this stubborn Buhari. He is new in politics. He will not reach anywhere. In fact we do not even consider as a variable in our political equation. He will be defeated at the primaries of the APP. I have my people working there. He must know that this is a Third World country where incumbency means using state resources to win election. He thinks that he can snatch power from me. He thinks he can be an Awolowo for the North. I am not intimidated. Politics is not for new comers. From where has he learnt politics? What are his resources? Where is his network and structure? After all, he has no police, no security, no radio, no money, no ministers, no assistants, no senators, no judges, no INEC, no CBN, no international community. Nothing. I have all these, and, above all, the law and the money. Who can defeat me? I am the incumbent.
By
Dr. Aliyu Tilde
aliyutilde@yahoo.com
Nigerians are getting on my nerves. Right now world leaders like me are meeting in Johannesburg. I cannot be there. This boy Ghali and his group in the House are trying to birdcage me. They are mistaken. They do not know who and what Baba Iyabo is. I am the President. The Commander in Chief. The Oga kpata kpata for Nigeria. Olusegun Mathew Okikiola Aremu Obasanjo. I command. Nigerians follow.
I am the one and only who walked straight from Prison to the Presidency. On request. On my own terms. I am free to rule the way I like. Nigerians need me. I can tell them, even as bombs were killing their sons and daughters, that I have no business being with them. My constituency is beyond Nigeria. Beyond. I belong to the international community. Whether I do fine or not, write anything, say anything. Na you sabi. You asked for it. You made a prisoner a President. You got it.
I am here. Aso Rock. I will be here until 2007. And beyond, if I like. No Mandela option. No impeachment. No handing over. All it requires is resources to win election and change the constitution. After all, I am the best thing that has ever happened to this country. If I am not the president, this country will pack up. It will tear apart.
I can do whatever I like. I cannot be asked. Only I can ask. I have constituted a committee to investigate the accounts of the National Assembly and some ministries. The same day, the House moved a motion to impeach me on grounds of contravening constitutional provisions. They cannot question me. If they do, they have committed treason. It is a coup. They should be expelled from the party. They should be arrested. Questions are my exclusive prerogative.
Impeachment. I know the people in the House. They know me. Whenever their pockets are dry, it is then they make a lot of noise. They send me threats. I send them money. They keep quiet. I go on with business as usual. Even now, I will do the same. They have plenty threats to issue. I have plenty money to dish out. The equation is balanced. This threat is small.
2003. I will continue. I was not defeated before. I cannot be defeated now. No one knows the extent of my resources except I. No Nigerian can defeat me, because no Nigerian is incumbent, other than me. That puts me in a special position of advantage. Like other presidents before. Like other African leaders. Winning an election is not about performance or voting. It is resources. After all, I came out of prison koboless and I won election. Now I command over seventy percent of the Nigerian economy. How can I be defeated? Nigerians are ingrates. They have forgotten about the difficult past because of the joyful present. Look at fuel everywhere. Money everywhere. There is no hunger. It is sabotage to claim so.
The oyinbo said that percentage of Nigerians living under poverty has risen from 45% during Abacha to over 70% now. Nigerians should thank me. If it were someone else as the leader, it would have reached 120%. They should not bother that 70% of Nigerians live on $1 per day; over 90% live on $2 per day. After all, 70% better pass 45%. Mtsss. Oyinbo na Mumu.
My critics do not know God. I sabi God pass dem. Na God tell me say make I contest 2003. At Ota. That is why I arrested Pastor Bakari. He lied against God. Then Nigerians again came and begged me to continue. Lar talk say the whole middle belt, 100%, is behind me. Only Arewa, na dem no gree. But let them know that it is resources, not number, that determines elections in Nigeria. If they are in doubt, they should listen to the following. They are what we call incumbency in Nigeria.
Resources
The presidential race is 100 meters dash. I am already 99 meters ahead of other contestants. They have to start from the scratch. From point zero. Any contestant who has resources cannot contest against me, because I will probe his source of money, seize it, and imprison him. So only contestants without money can risk the foolishness of contesting with me. He will not defeat me because anyone with resources will be afraid to contribute to his campaign. You see?
Let me tell you the extent of my resources. First, If economy is life, I can give it and take it away. I sign every kobo, determine where it goes and for what purpose it will be used. I can withhold it, even if it is police salaries, salaries of magistrates, allocations of the National Assembly, etc. I can change the allocation formula by executive order. I can use dozens of billions on national ID cards and allocate only N3billion to agriculture, though it is the source of income of 70% of the population. I can give contracts at any rate I wish. Look at the contracts documents of extension of the National Assembly complex, the Abuja stadium, the cost of roads rehabilitation, of which we have completed several thousands of kilometres. Compare them with those of PTF. They are only six times more, if what Anenih told the world last year was correct. You will then know that I am an executive president.
So talking about money, you cannot beat me. Thisday has earlier reported that my campaign team has piled N32 billion as at the last year. That is an old figure. Jare. Money is not my problem. I have many well wishers. I have given so many contracts. And the oyinbo say, to whosoever much is given, much is expected. Scratch my back. I scratch yours. Have my opponents got any contract to give? How much do they have in their campaign account, right now? Central Bank governor, watch their accounts closely.
With this huge amount, I can buy any Nigerian. Cash down. Call him: oba, emir, professor, general, wife, husband, kai, everybody. I will pay every polling agent, going officer, returning officer, electoral commissioner, and every one. How much can my opponent afford? Who can they buy?
Law
INEC. I write the electoral law in this country. I dictate the rules. The other time, I tampered with the electoral act. So what? I am the President. You can only shout. You can do nothing. I appoint all members of INEC. Whether you say Goubadia is my in-law or not, I do not care. He must do what I want him to do, when to do it, how to do it. If I like I will give him the money for voters register, after finishing my scheming. If he complains, I sack him. After all, he cannot complain. In the same way, I have appointed resident electoral commissioners. They are all PDP people, or those who have vowed to do business with me.
With this, I can determine the number of registration cards going to each place. Where I have supporters, like Lagos, I can send them over 6million registration cards, making everybody there an eligible voter; Bakassi, more than 100,000; but Bede, only 20,000, instead of 100,000. In any case, these northerners are lazy. Give them short notice for the registration, pair it with ID card, send few registration cards to opposition areas, and ask many questions, including the pictures of their wives. They will abandon the exercise.
Elections. When election comes, every electoral commissioner will report to INEC not less than the figures we require from his state, according to our pre-election computation. The worst my enemies can do is to appeal to the electoral tribunal. Tribunal? No election tribunal can listen to a case against me. They did not succeed in 1999 when I was not in power. How can they succeed today? I will learn from Abdulsalami how he made me president. As a late friend told his disciples, win the election anyhow first. Let the loser go to court, you will remain the winner. Which tribunal judge will decline N1 billion? After all, I make the appointments. I will not be a fool to leave a stone-headed judge on it.
I will determine whether any election takes place or not. The local government election is an example. I do not owe you any explanation as to why it could not hold on 10 August. I cannot be questioned. Therefore, no apology. And if I am not voted for, Nigeria should be ready to pay for the consequences. I am not scared of any coup. The Americans are here. They are my protectors. I can declare state of emergency and postpone the election using one excuse or another. There is no limit to what I can do.
Police. I have the law enforcement agents in my pocket. Remember I did not need to even follow the constitution in the appointment of the Inspector General of police. I am the constitution. I can change the police commissioners just before the elections. They must obey my command or risk losing their jobs. How can I even post my enemies there. All of them, like the electoral commissioners must be mine. 100%.
So whichever way you look at it, I am the law. I determine what it will be, who will use it, who will enforce it, and who will adjudicate on disputes regarding it. They must submit to my will, come 2003. But that is not the full measure of my strength.
Influence
Money and law aside. Who has a quarter of my influence as President and Commander-in-Chief with over 100 personal assistants and advisers who are ready to carry out my command. I am free to recruit them to do any of my campaign jobs. I do not have to fend for them. The government, by virtue of their position, does it. I have my loyal Vice-President who also has another battalion of assistants and advisers. He does not pay them salaries from his pocket, buy or fuel their cars. The government does so.
Imagine my over 40 ministers and their personal assistants. Each minister is controlling a budget of billions that must be carefully expended in ways that will further my re-election bid. There are hundreds of permanents secretaries, director-generals and directors, each praying for the day he will be invited for a dinner at Aso Rock, to receive my instructions and carry them out with the promptness of Big Ben.
Examples are my ministers of finance and of works and housing. They are my campaign managers. You see. Do I need to appoint a different campaign manager, putting him on a salary, housing him in Abuja, buying a jeep for him and so on? Ciroma is there, as well as Mr. Fix it. They can fix whatever I want with the abundant resources in their control. I am yet to sign a single check on my campaign and things are moving well. One of them awards all the billion-naira contracts in his ministry; the other finances them. Why should the funding of my campaign be a problem then?
And remember that in terms of strategy I have the best brains. It is by no coincidence that I chose Ciroma as the national coordinator of my campaign. He was among the topmost four in NPN during the Second Republic. He can still remember what it took to win a moonslide victory in 1983. Mr. Fix it is there also to fix any knotty officer or stubborn judge.
I also have the security agents with me. The other time they quizzed Ghali Na-Abba for at least two hours. It is his fault. How can he destabilize Nigeria by threatening to impeach the president? From this logic, you might as well ask why should anyone attempt to destabilize Nigeria by defeating me at the polls? If any influential figure tries to support my opponent, they will intimidate him with his past record, and he will yield. Every conversation of my opponents can be recorded and passed to me or to my campaign team. My opponent does not control a single security agent; he has no NITEL; and can never tap a single sentence from our conversations. I can block every move of his. Even if he wants to rent an office, I can find a way of frustrating his effort by offering three times the amount settled, or intimidate the landlord by blocking his contract payments and so on.
Every presidential candidate needs support in the states. I have the governors behind me, out of fear or persuasion. I have a file on each of them. All their cuwa-cuwa is here. In fact, I can smell corruption in their offices, as I sit here in Aso Rock. The anti-corruption tribunal is there. All of them, except one or two I think, are afraid of being arraigned before it. I determined the powers and composition of the tribunal, finance it and, therefore, I am free to dictate who appears before it, when and on what charge. They must therefore support my candidature at the convention, with all their commissioners, assistants and advisers, and chairmen of boards.
Right now, I did not pay for the billboards and other expenses for my campaign in the states. Why should I? All of them are coming here seeking for my support, and pleading that I do not field any opponent against them. I said agreed. But they must go back and prove that their states are behind me. That is why they are competing in inviting me to their states to witness that they have delivered their states. Kwankwaso invited Atiku. I was there too. Kano is a good town, except that they have stubborn children. Dem sabi stones o. Abi dem train for Palestine?
And my power, through the governors, has reached the local government level. They have appointed caretaker committees to run the councils. Aha. Again, each chairman, who must have proved to be a loyalist, has been briefed on his assignment and he is already doing his best to ensure that his governor and Obasanjo sun zarce. My opponents do not control over a single governor or a single local government chairman. How can they defeat me?
The Press. Finally. What about them? I know them. Brown envelopes kawai. I have many of them, including green, yellow and red ones. It depends on the type of journalist. That is why they have been silent about my inadequacies. Moreover, most of them are my tribesmen. Those from other places cannot afford to print anything against me. They live in Lagos. OPC can takul them.
Government press is already singing my praises and blocking my opponents. They must. Tune to network news, on FRCN and NTA. All the news must be filtered, such that nothing, no matter how factual, is said against me. In fact, it must all be about me, where I went, what I said or what my government has achieved. And the achievements of my government are many! (Garri is N100 per measure. Maize is over N3,500 a sac. There is no hunger. No poverty. The dollar is N140. Everybody is getting paid on time. All old roads have been rehabilitated and thousands of kilometres of new ones have been constructed. The economy has never been better. The morale in the army is very high. Etc.) My opponents are denied airtime. Ask Rimi. He thinks N12 million is enough to overcome my power at FRCN Kaduna. Leave him. He does not know the power of the incumbent. Before I knew it, Jerry Gana, or Ghana, has already fixed him.
As the NPN did in 1982 and 1983, I am establishing dozens of FM stations all over the federation. Do you think I do not know that the four FRCN stations can reach everywhere in the country or that the states do not have their local stations? I do. What you fail to understand is that no chances should be taken. After all, would not the contract of establishing them serve as another avenue to enrich some of my political associates? Like the controversial supply of equipment done by the NTA Director-General. Why should I probe him? It is better to create a friend than an enemy. What can Yusuf Mamman do? Nigeria is not Kenya, after all. They have their price; we have ours, even if the manufacturer is the same. They are poor; we are rich.
Conclusion
That is it. Too bad for my opponents. Nigeria has to wait until I agree to change the constitution to warrant only one 5-year tenure for the presidency. Then the problem of incumbency can be mitigated.
That is why all northern political leaders contacted to contest against me refused to be persuaded to do so, including all their long distance presidential aspirants. Rimi has been playing with fire. I will defeat him at the primaries. I will takul Na-Abba after the impeachment problem. My men will sponsor a motion to sack him as leader of the House.
Don’t mind this stubborn Buhari. He is new in politics. He will not reach anywhere. In fact we do not even consider as a variable in our political equation. He will be defeated at the primaries of the APP. I have my people working there. He must know that this is a Third World country where incumbency means using state resources to win election. He thinks that he can snatch power from me. He thinks he can be an Awolowo for the North. I am not intimidated. Politics is not for new comers. From where has he learnt politics? What are his resources? Where is his network and structure? After all, he has no police, no security, no radio, no money, no ministers, no assistants, no senators, no judges, no INEC, no CBN, no international community. Nothing. I have all these, and, above all, the law and the money. Who can defeat me? I am the incumbent.
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